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Focussed vs Diversify
jammo
#11 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 10:23:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@cowpoke...if it was the 1st time u came got the NSE and someone told u to put the 10k u'v worked hard to save in one counter u'd be reluctant..same way buyers of minimum Safcom ipo where SHOPPING FOR ANOTHER COUNTER to put in 7500.. A few years later after consistent investing when someone comes to you with 30000 u can easily recommend ONE counter. ..same thinkin here. If i came seekin opinions for half an m...u could easily give a diversified portfolio... But if th 0.5m is part of a bigger cash outlay of may be 5m..u'd point out 1counter to buy. Think the same of 1m a month...

'I have heard of You,O Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee! Baal Perazim..the Lord of the Breakthrough!'
mlefu
#12 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 10:42:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/11/2007
Posts: 1,680
Location: nairobi
22m at 26!

now its your turn...YES!

keep smiling
Cowpoke
#13 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 10:48:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/16/2007
Posts: 36
Not quite. Initially,i'd do that as a first time (or advicing a first timer),which i still think it is not a wise idea,contrary to the advice proferred. But the subsequent one(s)/advice,i would be put in other counters. Spliting th initial investment may prove to be difficult unless th guy has a nice wad of cash. If someone came to me with 500k,i would actually recommend 3-4 counters to put their money in. Which is basically diversifying. Since the amount at hand is a nice tidy sum,you should have it in like 4 counters at th very least. (BTW,as mlefu has pointed out,you have 22M @ 26?? or is it a fund that you belong and/or manage?? If its urs,How th heck did u do it?? Not in detail but a few,general ideas/tips for us all who are striving hard to get there!!)



Rule No 1: NEVER Lose any Shareholders' money.
Rule No 2: NEVER Forget Rule No 1!!!
young
#14 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 10:53:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,074
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Can the popular and notable Jammo the chief Speculator in Nairobi reason like this ?

Speculation is attractive if you have a small portfolio as there there might be the urge to perform a miracle of turning 20K bob to 200K bob in one year !!!

But with the portfolio like yours (a whole 22m Ksh) I think 20 %- 40% appreciation is more than enough for you so why speculate ?

ON FOCUSED & DIVERSIFY

In my own case I am focused on very few counters (max 4) in my country and elsewhere but diversify by investing in other stock exchanges. That is why I invest in Nairobi and other exchanges so far it has paid off.

Take a look at this Jan - Jun 2008

Nairobi +21 %

S/Africa (Aquarious Platinum AQP) +35%

Nigeria (my country) - 7% (I mean minus 7 the market has been bearish)

Ghana (equity Fund) +13%

Australia (BHP) +28%

HNK (ICBC) +27%

Canada (Barrick Gold) +33%

etc etc etc

On the whole Jammo you are a good guy doing a good job but for speculators only.

Cheers



AFRICAN INVESTOR
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
jammo
#15 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 11:17:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
Its not about the cash. If u made a client really ...i mean really happy..some how when u say 'jump!'..they teleport! Anyway..i kno someone.. alot of 'someones' who know totally nothing about stocks..and prefer someone else knowing.. and some have lost,some hefty amounts in shares..till we met. They are more than just willing to put up some cash...kind of nondescretion invstment club...i call the shots.....plus I'v been managin their accounts..they kno what i can do. Raise funds same case as eli tryin to though am putting up my own too..rise financiers for his plan. But that's besides the point. Please can we talk what counter u could buy over next 22weeks..consistently..bila waverin..within the bracket of Kq,Safcom,access,KCB,equity,nic,kenya re,arm,cables,kengen..Mumias.. ..especially GROWTH counters...... Use this as thinking..200day movin average with long term Safcom bein pegged at atleast 7.50...a million shares hav quite a nice return? My argument is that the market is based out and its the best time to buy..within a 22week window. Thing is..why make so much in Equity and loose substantially in centum and cables..within last 22weeks...it where better to hav Equity,Access or KCB..which we have and could hav got more but psychological 'diversify' mode made us write off counters already gotten! Insistin on portfolio of 55% financials,25%industrials,15% commercials and 5% agricultural. Appropriate diversify..but is that the best? I think note. This is just a phase....concentrate next 22weeks..it works..cool. I'l even write a book. It doesn't work..well..i'll be stuck with an excellent counter.

'I have heard of You,O Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee! Baal Perazim..the Lord of the Breakthrough!'
Mainat
#16 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 11:37:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
If its growth they/you are after,why not sort the counters in the order you think grow at for the next 3/4 years plus average dividends so far then put that next to what you think is reasonable/achievable annual NSE return (20-30%) and then just pick the ones or one most likely to do so?

The only caveat is you may need to have a price target that will allow you to get those gains e.g. below Ksh300 for Equity,below Ksh50 for NIC etc.



www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Taster
#17 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 12:25:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 21
@ jammo

You are beginning to sound like a real fortune teller. You know the kind that ask you a few questions and then give you a sweet twisted answer that make you feel like your problems are over. forgetting that you provided the information to start with. If you have done good reliable reasearch why do you need to reccomend five or ten counters. why not just one that will maximize your returns (like you are asking here). or simply say a certain counter is taking the plunge so keep off. i mean something that looks like real certainty. i think you dont need my answer. just do your research.


kama huwezi kula,lamba.
Cowpoke
#18 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 12:38:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/16/2007
Posts: 36
Since you have decided to go ahead to put your eggs in one basket,I would advise you purchase these:
1. KCB: Effects of the rights issue will be felt in the next few months. The 5.5B will allow them to take on more deposits,lend more and open up more branches to reach more clients…..etc leading to greater performance in short run.
2. Safcom: it is still a good counter and small fluctuations in price will have good margins/ROI. With your large money-chest,you can ride the fluctuations every week/fortnight and make a crazy return by EOY.
3. KQ,Access Kenya,equity Kengen,Kenya re….etc are all good counters but I do not think they offer great short term opportunities in s-term (by EOY) esp. considering the amount you have to invest. My main basis for this is: They will rise beyond the shadow of a doubt but when that will happen,I am not sure/cannot tell.
4. Remember,the Co-op IPO is about to take place and it may have an impact on existing stocks. The other option is to buy counters are likely to drop and off-load before the IPO. Then,buy the counters that drop due to the IPO and sell after (hoping that they will drop.) The drop may not happen esp. going by the safcom ipo where banks financed people to purchase and hence did not need to sell to raise additional funds to allocate to the IPO.
As indirect as the advice has been,I Hope that this has been beneficial to you!



Rule No 1: NEVER Lose any Shareholders' money.
Rule No 2: NEVER Forget Rule No 1!!!
Afroboy
#19 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 12:44:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/29/2006
Posts: 4
@Jammo,

You have built up your wealth through speculation and that is the game that you know well. However,the cake has become very large and hence your reasoning whether to focuss or diversify. The way I see it is that you can still have your cake and eat it! Focuss is pure speculation but in a mall market such as NSE,it can be managed. Divide your investment into 3 portions. One,buy treasury bills. One buy diversify. One focuss and actively manage it. But again,I am sure you might have thought of this already.


THE PATH OF DUTY IS THE WAY TO GLORY
marktplaatz
#20 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 2:03:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/23/2008
Posts: 12
jammo,the declared trader (aka speculator) par excellence,wanting to become an investor? I hope you haven't taken a debilitating hit,aka 'wipeout'. Your best strategy depends on whether you want to continue being a trader or convert to an investor; never confuse the two. In trading you can keep one kiondo,not in investment. Serious investors almost always diversify. Hopefully,you'll make billionnaires out of your millionnaire clients without cracking up.
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