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Focussed vs Diversify
jammo
#1 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 8:37:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
Hi.. This is becomin a constant serious nagging thought every night i go to sleep. Selling everything i got..put it all in 1counter..talk to fellow partners n side kicks...will come up with slightly under 22m..put it all in equity...or Access... or KQ at 42...or NIC at 52.50... or Kengen at 22.. etc.. One counter..spread out buyin and use an m a week...will take on long past cooperative's ipo..and probably 2 or 3 corporate actions(there is some credence to talk of access kenya's probabl rights..just rumour picked up at the actual NSE floor. Brokers actually tryin to find the truth as i write)
1counter..probably equity. I kno it can work..just need ur thoughts..what am i missing here? Am not an idiot so don't advice me as one. Thanx. Let's see what this will do.

'I have heard of You,O Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee! Baal Perazim..the Lord of the Breakthrough!'
xxxxx
#2 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 10:28:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 503
@jammo,

My take is that you are better off speculating as you've been doing though its worth a try if its on yo mind. If you do decide to focus,I'd say the key is to focus on a share you don't mind owning to perpetuity (which might just be equity right now)...just in case it goes belly up.

Wonder how many opinions you'll get that don't mention the 'all eggs in 1 basket' quip.


beware the irrational exuberance on the NSE
jammo
#3 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 4:32:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
Am thinking question would be to diversify or not. If i put all my funds in Old Mutual....or Baam..or Zimele..or any fund out there..it would be touted as 'a very wise move'..yet the fund..as a counter is JUST ONE!! ..but diversified in products,target of investments..and may be industry. What's the difference from puttin my whole cash stock in Equity? One counter yes..but diversified products..and yes..areas of investing....bankin,micro financing..mortgage..custodial services,..probabilities for this bank are as immense as could be!! Mutual funds especially those with offshore reach are not exempt from international decline in stocks world wide...plus they hide behind a veil of havin 'experts' handlin the funds..yet some of us hav beaten their annual returns just by readin thro posts on SK!!..find out Who's invested in a fund 6months ago? ..the returns are good yes..but try sell ur units today..u'l be sorry coz unit prices are far much down today than when u bought IN! I'v been investing..and yes..tradin for close to 3years...guys who beat my returns over the period either had more cash than i did to take advantage of opportunities i couldn't take..or just concentrated on one counter. Do the math..if all cash u got was put in one solid counter with good probables..1 counter u do not mind holding forever....eg Access,Equity... nic,EABL,scan group.. KCB,...options are many. After all..Buffet put all his cash in Berkshire H.! Put all eggs in one basket and WATCH THAT BASKET!!

'I have heard of You,O Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee! Baal Perazim..the Lord of the Breakthrough!'
eli
#4 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 5:27:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 294
What does Buffet do! The guy,put almost all his eggs in one basket and watches that basket with a keen eye! Barkshire Hathaway as in investment company owns other stocks/companies/business like Washington Post,CocaCola,GEICO,Clay Works,etc. He buys a given share in bulk ( as in Millions). I guess that could be called concentration. I want to believe that it works and does real well,than scattering your wealth all over the place,doing a guesswork,that if this counter looses,this will gain. Its utter nonsense!

Investing in growth companies,will in turn give great dividents,great capital gains,case in point,Google,Equity,Barkshire,Access,etc.

Assume that you have a magnifying glass,or a lens in a hot sunny day,like today and you want to burn a piece of paper,will moving the lens achieve some result?Your guess is as good as mine,Concentrate the sun's rays and the paper will burn faster.

Proverbs says,'A rolling stone gathers no moss',I guess it applies in stocks as well.

Grab a website,visit www.thedoxa.net
stocksmaster
#5 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 5:30:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
I always put my money in one stock that promises sustained growth in profitability.Once the growth rate slows(or the stock becomes grossly overpriced with little upside),i move on to the next fastest growth stock.This is informed from simple logic:With growth,the share price rises usually propotionately to the growth.With this strategy,i have constantly outperformed the 'fund managers' who have to spread their portfolio as a legal requirement(which Jammo you can circumvent as yours is not a registered fund).When i say the fastest growing company on the NSE,that should tell you what my returns for this year are......The same share is goin to sustain this momentum for at least another 3 to 5 years(compute a conservative 70% annual increase in share price+dividends for at least 3 years).The strategy has inherent risks which am sure you are familiar with but how else will you aggresively build wealth?I plan to use the strategy till am about 40yrs(am 28yrs) when i'll aggresively diversify to minimise risk.

Recommended reading:Read the Dyer and Blair Banking survey research report 2008 at their website(www.dyerandblair.com).An interesting well written analysis.


Happy hunting








































Stocksmaster-For well researched market analysis
x handle: @stocksmaster79
mukiha
#6 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 5:40:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@jammo - Here is a simple rule of thumb that has always worked: SUCCESSFUL COMPANIES SPECIALISE; SUCCESSFUL INVESTORS DIVERSIFY

The question is; Which one are you?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
jammo
#7 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 5:59:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@mukiha... Let's just say i'm bored trading..don't trust mutual funds..need a break..and most efficiently diversified portfolio last 12months hav so far managed to preserve capital or grow marginally...gains in equity,access bein offset by fall in cables Mumias etc...... Just an ILLUSTRATION please. Remember a comparison u drew to me some time back between peter lynch and Warren? I think the main argument behind diversifyin is spreadin risk especially where uncertainty is and not fully informed. I like what part of portfolio held in Equity,Access and NIC has done for me...especially equity.. My thinking is if i kno what am doin..si its ok? Funds are shoppin for stocks to pick. Tell me what that portends for growth stocks? Especially since funds spread their buys.....over time?...thus reducin effect of probable fluctuations. Question i gues,should then be... Any one with doubts where equity will be a year from now?..not share price..share value? What about NIC or Access. This is happening.

'I have heard of You,O Lord. Now mine eyes have seen thee! Baal Perazim..the Lord of the Breakthrough!'
Mainat
#8 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 6:43:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
This is must be the biggest coincidence of all.

As from end of June,I've decided to reduce my portfolio from 9 counters and move 75%+ into one counter for the next 3/4 years and then 25% to hold into 2 or 3 others (at least one with solid dividends).

My logic is simple,if my stock picks are any good,diversifying means averaging down my gains not reducing risk.


www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Cowpoke
#9 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 10:03:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/16/2007
Posts: 36
My take is you should always diversify!
It has been noted that the stock prices do not always follow the fundamentals closely. For example,during a bear run,the prices drop by an unnecessarily high margin (even for fabulous counters) which makes good counters grossly underpriced.
Anyway,putting all your eggs in one basket can turn out to be a dangerous move. The info that you have of the co. ain’t ‘perfect’ and even with insider info,s*** still happens!!
If you diversify,you benefit from spreading your risks and also,you benefit from gains made in the economy by different companies. As pointed out earlier. Warren Buffet despite havin all his 'eggs' in berkshire,berkshire still holds a lot of companies so he is well diversified. I strongly believe that you can still make good gains from different counters. Also,constantly re-align your portfolio. Be patient. After all,you get the chick by hatching the egg not smashing it!!!



Rule No 1: NEVER Lose any Shareholders' money.
Rule No 2: NEVER Forget Rule No 1!!!
Cowpoke
#10 Posted : Wednesday, August 06, 2008 10:13:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/16/2007
Posts: 36
I had mentioned this in an earlier post but its relevant to this.....My max cap on any one investment is approx 25%. That guards against any errors that i may have made,issues unforeseen/arisen issues in the economy and stock market such as an unexpected bear run.



Rule No 1: NEVER Lose any Shareholders' money.
Rule No 2: NEVER Forget Rule No 1!!!
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