Trade update - AUDCAD short @1.0450 SL hit (1.0550 - 2003 yr high) - 186 pips loss. Still looking for shorts. Why? At these levels all the way to 1.10 is a confluence of multi-year resistance levels. Spot at 1.10 has been a solid resistance level since 1994, 1995, 1996 and 1997. Check it out if your charts can go that far in the past... More indicators - monthly slow stocs overbought and monthly RSI just about overbought. Upper bollinger band is at 1.0630 - all lining up against buy momentum. I will repeat again, this is a monthly trade so patience needs to be exercised... I'm also banking on the Australian housing meltdown.
Checked out NZDUSD - this one could target 1.10 if it can surpass the 0.82 level (multi year resistance) with conviction. Otherwise, risks for a major reversal are likely. And with China on a slow down and Australia facing a housing sector meltdown, the bears have a bigger chance.
USDJPY - yet again testing the line in the sand (80.00) of the central planners... Intervention anytime soon. Shorts had better tighten their stops. Last time it broke down (after the Jap earthquake) it quickly crashed to 76.30 before the BoJ and G7 intervened killing the short term sellers. BoJ will not permit USDJPY peg to crash since an expensive JPY is bad for their crashed economy. They will print (debase) yens at all costs!
As for USDCHF, monthly RSI is oversold, slow stochs so oversold. Reversal in the offing.
EURUSD - monthly stochs overbought, turning down lower than highest peak while failure of 1.50 handle still holds. Monthly candlestick calls for a selloff. I don't like covering the euro since I'm a biased bear...

As for USDZAR and USDSGD, what I stated before remains the same.
Happy trading...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!