wazua Sat, Nov 30, 2024
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

4 Pages<1234>
30yr bond at 12%. Any takers?
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
VituVingiSana
#41 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 10:26:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
http://www.centralbank.g...onds/manualresults.aspx

So what was the cut-off rate? How do you find out?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
kizee1
#42 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 11:03:59 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
cutoff-12 pct, total bids 18yds of which 8yds was accepted...so much for buying it at a discount i guess
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
VituVingiSana
#43 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 11:42:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
Cut-off must be higher than 12% [the average accepted bid was 12.959%]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Intelligentsia
#44 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 8:43:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/1/2009
Posts: 2,436
never thought there would be a big uptake by the retail market... plus 'more headroom for re-opening of the bond for second time'

http://www.businessdaily.../-/15iwwww/-/index.html








Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
VituVingiSana
#45 Posted : Saturday, February 26, 2011 3:03:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
[quote=Intelligentsia]never thought there would be a big uptake by the retail market... plus 'more headroom for re-opening of the bond for second time'

http://www.businessdaily.../-/15iwwww/-/index.html[/quote] How do you determine it is retail?

Most of the winning bids may be from Banks, Pension Firms/Managers & Insurance Firms [Note that most bids/tenders were competitive]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Genghis Khan
#46 Posted : Monday, February 28, 2011 8:47:57 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2010
Posts: 335
Location: Nairobi
msimon wrote:
2012 wrote:
Kirika wrote:

The interest should have atleast been 15%, atleast given the duration.


Ati 15%? And you'll still expect banks to give mortgages at below 15% while they can put it here where there's guaranteed returns?

I personally don't think it's too bad after all and if I'm not wrong if you compound 1m at 12.5% x30yrs it's well over 30m. Fantastic way to save for retirement ama?

You know, there's a greater probability that in the next 30yrs, you could buy that bond at 90 and a slight probability that you could also buy it at 80. Now if your patient and you consider getting good returns for your shilling. I think you could wait and buy it over the next 30 yrs at say 80. Markets can be irrational.


I don't follow the logic...you expect interest rates to go up in the medium / long term?
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM | Edit by user: Monday, February 28, 2011 8:50 AM | Reason: Not specified
Muthawamunene
#47 Posted : Wednesday, March 16, 2011 10:41:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
hell yeah id get that paper. maybe a year or two from now i hope to get one at kedo 96-97 range. when stocks pick up.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
SAC Cohen
#48 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2011 10:30:55 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 129
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
no wonder njuguna ndungu says every market has a mad man


hahahaha... was looking at this post after last week's TBILL & TBond Results...

I guess between Ndungu and I , one of us must be MAD.

DARE I SAY 13% on the 182-day T-bill this week?
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#49 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2011 10:52:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
And now 12% for a 30 year bond now seems like open day robbery. Cant imagine the paper losses to be reported by all the institutional investors come year end if the interest rates keep going up.
And yes, this bond could as well come down to 90!
@SufficientlyP
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
invest0r
#50 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2011 11:20:03 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
Laughing out loudly
SAC Cohen wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
no wonder njuguna ndungu says every market has a mad man


hahahaha... was looking at this post after last week's TBILL & TBond Results...

I guess between Ndungu and I , one of us must be MAD.

DARE I SAY 13% on the 182-day T-bill this week?



13% for the 182 day bill sounds very ambitious in the current week. But we are slowly steadily heading to those levels. After all, the paper has tested 13% in the past, in 2001

I think this is not the time to touch the long term papers, unless its at 30% and above Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
guru267
#51 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2011 11:33:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
invest0r wrote:
Laughing out loudly
SAC Cohen wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
no wonder njuguna ndungu says every market has a mad man


hahahaha... was looking at this post after last week's TBILL & TBond Results...

I guess between Ndungu and I , one of us must be MAD.

DARE I SAY 13% on the 182-day T-bill this week?



13% for the 182 day bill sounds very ambitious in the current week. But we are slowly steadily heading to those levels. After all, the paper has tested 13% in the past, in 2001

I think this is not the time to touch the long term papers, unless its at 30% and above Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


What do you anticipate will come out of the MPC meeting?? If they cool inflation then short term rates start to dive... They might have peaked today
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
KulaRaha
#52 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2011 11:41:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
I'd say 11% this week for 182 day bills, and perhaps 10% for 91 day.

Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
SAC Cohen
#53 Posted : Monday, May 30, 2011 12:02:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 129
Location: Nairobi
Inflation numbers expected @14% or thereabout, I reckon MPC will raise by 50-100bp. CBK front running these next 2 auctions before budget reading. Why do i say so?
91-Day tbill auction was for 3B, CBK took all the bids (8B+)... at even 9.25%!!!!
It can only mean the budget numbers we expect will be extraordinary and the gava needs to pick this up before the budget...
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
bwenyenye
#54 Posted : Tuesday, May 31, 2011 4:33:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
It looks like the lending rates will start edging upwards as government increases its borrowing in the local market. Me thinks we will find ourselves in the pre- Mwiraria era with banks preferring to lend to Govt at the expense of the individual borrowers. Woe unto those who intend to borrow in the next six to twenty four months.
I Think Therefore I Am
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Cde Monomotapa
#55 Posted : Tuesday, May 31, 2011 4:55:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
If I were a bank I wouldn't raise lending rates on existing loans to avoid NPLs. 2. I would neither raise deposit rates to maintain my cost of funds. 3.I would keep lending although cautiously. 4.and most of all be very active in govt.debt mkt and with this kinda rates i'd make a KILLING!
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
cnn
#56 Posted : Tuesday, May 31, 2011 6:33:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
SAC Cohen wrote:
Inflation numbers expected @14% or thereabout, I reckon MPC will raise by 50-100bp. CBK front running these next 2 auctions before budget reading. Why do i say so?
91-Day tbill auction was for 3B, CBK took all the bids (8B+)... at even 9.25%!!!!
It can only mean the budget numbers we expect will be extraordinary and the gava needs to pick this up before the budget...

Raised by 25bp to 6.25.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Gaudente2
#57 Posted : Saturday, July 09, 2011 11:41:53 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 7/9/2011
Posts: 1
on the NSE site I see a price of 81.30 for this bond, meaning a yield to maturity of about 15% ... is that price real or is the market illiquid ?
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Mike_Watts
#58 Posted : Sunday, July 10, 2011 10:02:42 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 7/10/2011
Posts: 2
Location: Nairobi
jerry wrote:
@amolo; Life expectancy of a fetus/foetus is not same as for a baby, neither is it same as for a 45yr old. Or is it 0 for 45 yr old? So it varies with your age.

You must be an actuary.Applause
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Scooby
#59 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2011 12:17:42 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Gaudente2 wrote:
on the NSE site I see a price of 81.30 for this bond, meaning a yield to maturity of about 15% ... is that price real or is the market illiquid ?


@Gaudente,

It could be both.

On one hand, the market is trying to avoid placing funds in long term investments...which is a common thing at this time of our country i.e. at least 18 months before the election.

In looking at the latest yield curve (i.e. as at 5 August 2011), I notice that there is no difference between the yield for a 25 year and 30 year bond. That tells you how much investors are being cautious.

On the other hand, I believe that the price could be about right for such kind of durations. Its really not about the investment being illiquid but how much risk (or its perception) is being factored for such an investment.

Let me know if you need further clarification.

Regards
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
jerry
#60 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2011 9:16:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Mike_Watts wrote:
jerry wrote:
@amolo; Life expectancy of a fetus/foetus is not same as for a baby, neither is it same as for a 45yr old. Or is it 0 for 45 yr old? So it varies with your age.

You must be an actuary.Applause

@Mike_Watts. Thanks If all realists r Actuaries then u r rt. Watts! Are u an Electrical engineer or an aspiring 1?
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Users browsing this topic
Guest (2)
4 Pages<1234>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2024 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.