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Total Kenya. Oooops!!
jammo
#1 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 11:09:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
Ksh109million Q1 loss! ..on account of 'low fuel prices'
That renews my immediate thinking n activity. ..not fundamentally but market position..

..if it is not expressly prohibited in law.. DO IT!!!!
Gordon Gekko
#2 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 11:22:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
It stinks. You maintain a constant profit margin regardless of costs of inputs. So how can margins be eroded even if international prices and/or exchange rates fluctuate? Just wondering - is it creative Accounting to dodge taxes? Are they trying to force the Govt's hand?
slykat
#3 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 11:38:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
@ Jammo.

Oooops! Pole but u were warned.

I warned about this awhile back n gave Total among examples that included safcom.

Its called price transfer. Some shareholders have to make K b4 u do.

When buying shares,ask yourself,would you buy the whole company?
jammo
#4 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 11:51:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@sly... My interest with total over the years is dividend factor. Sh2.50 at buy prices of sub28 yet picks up to 35 toward mid may.. That doesn't change. My change of mind refers to what time to start getting in by spreading out.

..if it is not expressly prohibited in law.. DO IT!!!!
Hi-Lo
#5 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 11:56:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
...seems they'v been caught in the Triton trap...buying high and having to sell low...why didn't they emulate Triton and siphon their fuel off and close shop? It's business not charity...but this goes to confirm that the future of all equity stocks is inherently uncertain and is difficult to model...

Playing the stock market without insider info...is like buying a cow in the moonlight.
slykat
#6 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 11:59:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
@ jammo.

do you manage others' funds? Hypothetically speaking,if i gave u 100K,how much k wud u make me in 12 months - less 10% for you - thru trading in the current bear mkt? whats ur average returns for every 100k during the bear?

@Hi-Lo

Siphon? Lol!

When buying shares,ask yourself,would you buy the whole company?
wote
#7 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 12:29:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/18/2007
Posts: 217
I would tend to agree with Gordon on the tax issue,we all know French companies are fomous in that aspect.

I however,have a question for Jammo,did you say loss because of'' low prices? and if so,are you telling us that the have adjusted their prices of the petroleum products sold to Kenyan public down ward ? and that they are selling their products lower than on the world market.? If so then that would be an act of charity and energy prices are going to fall,we will witness an economic take off.



wote
jammo
#8 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 12:47:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@sly... U hav my mail address.

..if it is not expressly prohibited in law.. DO IT!!!!
jammo
#9 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 1:05:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@wote.... Quotation marks mean they aren't my words. On total i'm a trader..so my interests go thus far.

..if it is not expressly prohibited in law.. DO IT!!!!
wote
#10 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2009 1:21:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/18/2007
Posts: 217
@ Jammo,i do know what a quotation mark means,point is that,i find you to be more informed on stock matters than majority of our SK members. That as it may,i believe it would be kind if you also stated that you do not agree with the reasons given by tatol in view of high prices of their products compared to the world trends/market.

wote
Gordon Gekko
#11 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2009 5:20:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Total have scheduled a press conference on Tue - details on the Caltex (Chevron) takeover. They may shed more light on the loss then.
mukwano
#12 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2009 10:51:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/15/2006
Posts: 44
total KENYA is a distribution arm,at least this is what (some) share holders were lead to believe and thus no record profits when oil prices were crazy high and all international oil companies were reporting dizzing profits. As a distribution arm,all they do is add service charge and profit to the oil price.

so margins shouldn't change as prices drop.

ps. this is also a low volume traded share which delivered a steady divided,however if you review it historically,it never rises with the market,its owners are in it for the divided,they dont trade much. for the small investor (the under 500K bunch) this stock is a waste of time.
Gordon Gekko
#13 Posted : Sunday, May 31, 2009 11:19:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Total currently has a 19-20% market share and this should rise to the maximum allowed 25% after the Chevron takeover. Assuming it currently has capacity to service the 25%,there should be no additional fixed costs therefore there should be an additional increase of 5% to the bottom line. The small shareholder has a chance to partake of this increase,and even better,a potential bonus issue for the fixed assets transferred from Chevron.
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