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Olympia holdings...falling apart?
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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With all these goings ons,how does this counter sustain such a high PE of 14.6? Shouldn't it be hovering around 5? meaning it's price should be below 3bob? Let's wait and see. I expect a blood bath after the results...when the 10% rule is lifted.... Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow) Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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The only explanation I can think of is that someone(s) with a large holding is (are) buying to prevent total collapse of the share. The other thing is that because there is not that much interest in the share the fall in price can be slowed by the fact that very few deals take place i.e. you can offer the share and it is not bought (even at the low price). That delays a price drop.
On the other hand there will always be a few brave investors who consider themselves contrarian. On the off chance that things turn out not to be so bad,they reckon they could make a kill by buying when all others are running away. Remember,quite a few people piled into Uchumi even after Sameer pulled out and Eddah Gachukia quit from the board. I am afraid that in this case,they are bound to be dissapointed.
Opportunity calls but few respond.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,097 Location: Nairobi
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Well,all said and done... it seems there are not many sellers out there... There is demand at 7.50 & the only seller wants 8/-. *** Hopefully,Olympia purges out the crap & provides a new start. I have written down my expectations! Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,097 Location: Nairobi
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I meant to say I have whittled down my expectations & written down my investment. My new base is 7.50 (i.e. I will count my gains/losses from this point on). Of course,I like many others are waiting for the results. Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@VVS,I read a lot of your posts which I find pretty insightful and well informed. However,in the case of Olympia,I wonder why you should not take more drastic action. I have written many negative opinions regarding this company but they have all been informed by what I see coming from the company and their board.
As such,I do not see any reason for giving them the benefit of doubt and hope that they will change. Over the years,I have stuck with a few companies trusting that they would be turned around and I would start being proud of my stake in the company.Alas,I have learnt teh HARD LESSON that the best thing one can do is to walk away,when in doubt about a company's prospects and especially their management. But there is nothing personal in that.
If they ever turn around,there is nothing to prevent you from re-investing in the company. If share price falls and shareholders make noise at the AGM as a result,perhaps the board/Mgt may listen and ACT. Remember,your hard earned money is not MONOPOLY (the game) money to be played with. But it is your decision and I respect it.
Opportunity calls but few respond.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,097 Location: Nairobi
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@mwanahisa - Well,true... I am NOT holding out for 14/- (I would DUMP 100% of my shares at that price...) but what I am looking at is PERHAPS (and I am waiting for the results) there is some upside after all the write-offs. *** I expect a stormy AGM & no idea what will transpire BUT I am valuing my shares at 7.50... **** ASSumption that it is 'fairly' valued at 7.50... Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/18/2009 Posts: 118
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That's the spirit. Shareholders,minority or otherwise,really need to start getting their voice heard.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,097 Location: Nairobi
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Once we know when the AGM will be held,I will try to form a group that coordinates the hard questions. Lakini,Kenyans. Give them a soda & they will kill you if you extend that AGM by one minute. Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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@V.V.S.: True value? Last years EPS = 0.51. Fair PE should be 4-to-5. After the fiasco in SA,don't expect much improvement in EPS....in fact,it will probably go down! The prices of 14 to 21 last year were supported by the expectations from SA...and now that shop has closed. So,if you work with and EPS of 0.5 and a generous PE of 5,your fair market value should be about sh2.50. Now if it touches that figure,I will buy back all the shares that I dumped at 8.50 last week! Just wait for the results and see...I will place a purchase order at 2.50!!!! Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow) Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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VVs-can I borrow your Olympia shares and give them back to you in two weeks time? For a fee of Ksh1 per share... www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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@Mainat: if VVS agrees,can you pass them on to me...for a fee of sh1.25? Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow) Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Mukiha-I'd have to charge you a broker fee of Ksh0.50 per share... www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 94
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If you gave someone say 200 Million,and he gave you back 20 Million (whittles it down by a factor of 90%) and then gave you stories about lacking knowledge about a market wouldn't you feel like beating the S&*t out of him?
I'm with you VVS,I'll create one hell of a ruckus at their AGM,Be prepared Matu I know you go through this forum and please conviniently forget sending the annual report and dividend as usual. I enjoyed running after it from CRS!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,097 Location: Nairobi
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I would not mind it... lakini how to do it is the question... I am open to ideas! Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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VV-excellent. How good a relationship do you have with your broker? He/she is key here. If its a good one,lets take the thing offline. www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,097 Location: Nairobi
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E-mail...? Or how do I get in touch? Broker... I am not sure but u need to provide the logistics... Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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VV- your broker is critical as it will facilitate your lending the shares. The rest is straightfwd. I'm sure you have my em. www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,097 Location: Nairobi
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Pls email me asap. I cant track ur email. Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Will have to be l8r today. www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,097 Location: Nairobi
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OK... asap... Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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