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Labour movement against Economic Projections.
Rank: Member Joined: 2/12/2008 Posts: 345
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cbk n imf projected kenya's 09 growth to be 3%...AIG projected 2% whilst OMAM is most optimistic with 3.2%
on account of global financial crisis..now tappering off..FKE earlier in the year implied probable job losses in overall economy at 30% ...(not particularly sure on that one)
KQ employees r threatenin industrial action..
university lecturers have given notice of considering goin back to salary increase negotiation table..primary school teachers aren't likely to be left behind...
..parliament proceedings on insecurity had members ask whether government is aware that increase in insecurity is due to police go slow on issue of salary increase..
Competition with treasury for credit,Rising costs in consumer goods,fuel,energy...water..(we need that maji loan heh! heh! heh!)...prospected failure in rain hence food supply...cost of livin this year...let alone the cost of credit can't be maintained on salaries/incomes remainin on same levels as of july 08.
If the economic forecasts aforementioned factor in probable labour costs..probable impact?
..if it is not expressly prohibited in law.. DO IT!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/19/2008 Posts: 1,267
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Jammo.... I already getting pressure from my employees...saying they can make ends meet and they that they need a rise despite the fact that they know ...we are not doing well...Things are tough....might end up retrenching to remain afloat... Rules of the game here: Before you post anything think.give facts only..It's a serious blog for serious people....Do not insult your brother....respect one another...Just be good.... It's good to live a honest life....life without guilt.... Jeremiah 17:11 As a partridge that hatches eggs which it has not laid,So is he who makes a fortune,but unjustly; In the midst of his days it will forsake him,And in the end he will be a fool.' From the SK Anti-hate/anti- corruption campaigner.. Isaiah 65:17-Look! I am creating new heavens and a new earth, and no one will even think about the old ones anymore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Doesn't it depend on what those initial estimates were based on? In any case,my estimate has always been that we'll get a flat yoy movement in economic growth. www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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What was the basis of their growth to question it? Anyway,I think I'd agree with the projections. Construction industry is seriously still on a strong growth path,tourism is experiencing signs of early recovery,ICT has millions pouring in through into the economy via the fibre related projects,our largest export destination is Uganda where effects of recession are not as bad,our foreign exports are diversified cushioning us against the fall of one sector like tourism,currently experiencing improved coffee prices,the govt has earmarked a Ksh. 40B stimulus package to filter through into the local village economies,CBK released more cash into the banks for onward lending,job losses are much lower than anticipated hence better tax collection,political risk has relatively reduced with RAO & Kibs on a fresh start,the KAM is in advanced stages of getting subsidised power rates operational nightly..list goes on...the positives outweigh the negatives you've correctly listed. As such 3% is realistic......the upcoming AGOA conference to be streamed live using 'SEACOM' as a test case.....and to be attended by the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton...should leave Kenya on a positive stead for current and future foreign investment.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,099 Location: Nairobi
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@ecstasy All the gains u mention can be wiped out by one scam... We need KSh 38 billion to fix Mau... Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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@VVS The Sh. 38B needed to fix Mau is not a scam unless you can prove that they don't need that much. Fixing the Mau is not all about evicting people,the people will have to be compensated,then the forests will need to be re-engineered. Buying seedlings,planting trees etc. The labour involved in doing this,will have to be paid for. If I was the gava,I would engage the locals as early as now in paid projects,ask them to plant seedlings which the gava will buy,then later use them to re-plant the forest,by the time they are re-settled,the blow will have been softened plus some will understand the need to allow the forest to grow. @ Jammo,sorry I went off-topic. I've noticed the youth in particular coming in to a workplace with a completely outsized notion of their own value and importance... just a thinly-veiled arrogance. May be the credit crunch induced recession is whats needed to remind us all about the value of hard work.... By Anonymous "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/12/2008 Posts: 345
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Back to labour and labour costs..current employees,retrenchment..plus retired.. to listed companies.. kq,kengen,kplc,kbc..n mumias...watch the price trend..a bigger labour cost means less earnings attributable to shareholders..plus makes management puppet to employees..thus less investor interest..or atleast..not from me.....atleast get comparative contribution of an employee to overall company year to year growth.
..if it is not expressly prohibited in law.. DO IT!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/27/2007 Posts: 2,768
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the current cost of labour together with its respective monthly increase has a significant impact on the company's profitability...the more costly the labour (mainly from salary upgrading) becomes,the less the company has at its disposal for expansion and future growth and vise-versa. the current economic projection of 3% is abit ambitious as it will depend on how long the financial crisis persists....you factor in the water and electricity crisis and the story becomes different... NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB ...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/12/2007 Posts: 391
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And the new labour laws have made Kenya a very expensive investment market. When the laws were enacted COTU was laughing all the way while FKE was moaning. Reality check is now setting in day by day. Organisations hav to off load some staff to reduce operational expenses and the wage bill. When we talk of a good investment environment,the first scrutiny is on a country's labour/ employment laws and taxation laws b4 even considering political stability and inflation. It's a pitiful situation since recession has strained cash flow projections and considerably reduced the profit margin (if any),yet employee agreements like CBA have to met by the employer otherwise........industrial relations sour I was born intelligent,education ruined me. Age is transforming me into an Elder;becoz Admin hasn't made me one.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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Fact
The Kenyan economy already grew by 3.9% during the first three months of this year,a figure higher than the CBK or IMF annual average projection mentioned here of 3% and higher than AIGs 2% or OMAM 3.2%.Remember,the EAC average growth in these recession is 5%.
Supposition:
Talk of paying higher salaries or compensating Mau 'squatters' will in my view not be effected this fiscal year given the budget deficit in the public sector. With 3.9% to start off,economic activity is not grinding to a halt. I'd place my guess at a final average growth average of 3% which are the CBK figures.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/11/2007 Posts: 213
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@made in the rush to attract FDI we should be wary not to become another 'sweatshop' economy.
As a naija in another forum recently put it- Kenya is unique to due to higher participation by indigenous peoples in the economy as opposed to neo-slave labour situation experienced elsewhere
As for the economy i think politics will still play a big role in the end but i project 4%- if on nothing else the resilience of the avg mwanainchi
Me first,U next
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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With the failure of rain and the effects on Agriculture,water supply and energy,I would be happy with 3%,but by the mere fact that that is the figure projected by our normally overoptimistic central bank,I think it will be around 2-2.5% which is abysmal for a country at our stage of development. Labour pains are just a reaction to the high inflation,in a perfect world all wages should have by now got a 17-20% inflation adjustment,but I believe this is the year many employers opted to offer zero pay increases and blame it on the global financial crisis. If we can fix,food production,pricing and distribution,guarantee uninterupted power and water supply,we can see 6% growth next year. I've noticed the youth in particular coming in to a workplace with a completely outsized notion of their own value and importance... just a thinly-veiled arrogance. May be the credit crunch induced recession is whats needed to remind us all about the value of hard work.... By Anonymous "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/11/2007 Posts: 213
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I beg to differ on the over hyped effects of the global downturn on our economy. A recent talk with a group of asian B/men in kenya was an eye opener in the sense that kenya has always been in recession/economic crisis for as long as they can remember and in their opine things were actually moving..
subsistence agriculture is becoming less and less critical for economic growth. The paradox is that certain sectors of the economy are experiencing significant growth despite the gloom...
Me first,U next
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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simple examples,the early figures from the construction and tourism sectors are positively way better than expected..
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