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where is the dollar going????
kizee1
#31 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 10:12:11 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Nevertheless, I am beneficiary of a weak shilling smile technical expansion of net-worth.



what country are u based in?
mufasa
#32 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 3:47:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 238
dollar @ 87. NSE index heads downwards with it. I want to switch from trading shares to trading forex. This deal looks sweet, unless am missing something. why only Kes?
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
Cde Monomotapa
#33 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 3:55:14 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
kizee1 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Nevertheless, I am beneficiary of a weak shilling smile technical expansion of net-worth.



what country are u based in?

+254
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 6:52:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
If the $ hits 90... expect another fuel price increase on 14 June!!! A 5% depreciation of the KES means unless there is a 5% drop in oil prices, there is no way we will see lower fuel prices!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee1
#35 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 10:15:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
its looking overdone now though it cud weaken a tad further guess 88 in the cards...when this sucker turns it will leave many without their shirts...cbk will only support it upto their b/sheet date thereafter i predict they may start a tightening regime...heck even before then it wud be interesting to hear what the mpc's view on cbks malfeasances is
hisah
#36 Posted : Monday, May 23, 2011 8:35:12 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Kizee1 - I have done a long term chart for the USDKES all the way back to Sept 1 2007 and this chart is USD bullish...!? If the Elliot Wave (EW) count is correct even Alykhan's target of 100/- is very mild?! This pair can easily shoot about 120 since the long term falling trend line has given way?! I know this sounds like dream stuff, but the chart never lies... If 2012 happens to be like 2007 with all the nasty PEV, that 120 figure will be surpassed!?
I'm hoping this thing hits 90 and reverses swiftly back under 80/- to stem the upcoming rally above the 100/- handle.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kizee1
#37 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:06:49 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah..i dont disagree with waht ur saying, i just feel that the market is waaay to KES bearish and cbk have slowly started tightening, funding any short kes possys will become a nightmare again....also note that the mpc MAY hike CBR agrresively, rate differentials do count for something
mufasa
#38 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2011 11:06:24 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 238
what is the cost of fuel now in Kenya?
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
VituVingiSana
#39 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2011 1:37:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
mufasa wrote:
what is the cost of fuel now in Kenya?

Getting interesting!

There are many 'fuels' but check ERC's website + prices depend on location.

KenolKobil gave a 5/- discount on Sunday
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee1
#40 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2011 4:17:51 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
so IMF come out and say the following

1. that the country needs to increase external reserves
2. that the cbk should concentrate on tackling inflation as its principle priority
3.THAT A TIGHTENING POLICY WILL NOT HURT THE ECONOMY AND THAT THEY SEE 5.4PCT ECON GROWTH( THIS MEANS RATES WILL RISE RAPIDLY)

....given all this...the KES has rallied from a intra-day low of 86.90*87.00 to close at 86.30*86.40....my money is on the KES rallying
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