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BAT - A BUY at below 250
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The Merchant
#1 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 11:02:14 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
At 245 its a buy as a value stock. Check this out

Price to buy= ((year high-year low)*40%)+ year low)

Therefore for BAT,
Best price to buy is = ((300-196)*40%)+196)
= 237.60
Today's price= 245
Difference= 3%

This screams BUY to me. The only issue is whether all these fake cigarettes in the market will mess up the beautiful dividend policy of this stock.

I now await opinions,suggestions or just regular bashing. smile smile
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Cde Monomotapa
#2 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 11:22:02 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Yawn...yet another senior citizens investment. Buying BAT made sense in 2009 @130*
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Papa Investor
#3 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 11:34:44 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/3/2010
Posts: 96
The Merchant wrote:
At 245 its a buy as a value stock. Check this out

Price to buy= ((year high-year low)*40%)+ year low)

Therefore for BAT,
Best price to buy is = ((300-196)*40%)+196)
= 237.60
Today's price= 245
Difference= 3%

This screams BUY to me. The only issue is whether all these fake cigarettes in the market will mess up the beautiful dividend policy of this stock.

I now await opinions,suggestions or just regular bashing. smile smile


You just took the words out of my mouth...when i saw the 245 price...just started salivating...only issue is that finished liquidity entering KPLC...dont think that price will last for long....
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The Merchant
#4 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 12:31:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Papa Investor wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
At 245 its a buy as a value stock. Check this out

Price to buy= ((year high-year low)*40%)+ year low)

Therefore for BAT,
Best price to buy is = ((300-196)*40%)+196)
= 237.60
Today's price= 245
Difference= 3%

This screams BUY to me. The only issue is whether all these fake cigarettes in the market will mess up the beautiful dividend policy of this stock.

I now await opinions,suggestions or just regular bashing. smile smile


You just took the words out of my mouth...when i saw the 245 price...just started salivating...only issue is that finished liquidity entering KPLC...dont think that price will last for long....

No it won't. The fund managers love this one and they will mop it up at this price leaving the rest of us calling it a senior citizens stock.
@cde mono....this stock has grown in value since its 130 days. Its like me saying I wont buy KCB at 24 since some months back it was valued at 17/-....Its not about price, its about value. Lets discuss that.Shame on you
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The Merchant
#5 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 12:35:35 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Oh and a quick one, its trading at an RSI of less than 30. If you follow the last 3 yrs trend, everytime this stock hits the 30 RSI mark it bounces right back up....wenye pesa nunueni I sing again.
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invest0r
#6 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 12:49:41 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
The Merchant wrote:
At 245 its a buy as a value stock. Check this out

Price to buy= ((year high-year low)*40%)+ year low)

Therefore for BAT,
Best price to buy is = ((300-196)*40%)+196)
= 237.60
Today's price= 245
Difference= 3%

This screams BUY to me. The only issue is whether all these fake cigarettes in the market will mess up the beautiful dividend policy of this stock.

I now await opinions,suggestions or just regular bashing. smile smile


@The Merchant, where is this formulae from and does it work for other stocks?
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The Merchant
#7 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 1:19:30 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@investor. Sorry to sound vague but I read it somewhere last yearon the net and apparently WB uses it. Now its only used to establish the best price to buy a stock which you have already decided would be good to hold. It helps to determine the entry point of an already favoured stock. Most investors use a more lenient percentage such as 60% in the formula. I only used 40% because WB uses that. Its a more prudent %. Ill look up the article/source and hit you up soon. In the meanwhile, read up on margin of safety. You will unearth even better formulas and ideas. All the best.
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maskana
#8 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 2:11:42 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 1/8/2011
Posts: 48
Location: muranga
The Merchant wrote:
Oh and a quick one, its trading at an RSI of less than 30. If you follow the last 3 yrs trend, everytime this stock hits the 30 RSI mark it bounces right back up....wenye pesa nunueni I sing again.



Placed my buy order last night @ 255 which went through,wish I waited little longer.
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For Sport
#9 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 2:42:43 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
The Merchant
what does the 40% represent?
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Cde Monomotapa
#10 Posted : Thursday, May 19, 2011 2:48:14 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@Merchant..i see our divergence. U r talking value n i'm talking business growth. To be clear..I WOULDN'T BE CAUGHT DEAD in SCBK, BAT or BBK (unless their prices crash with no relation to fundamentals like in 08/09). Why? I am young...and these companies have reached their peak in my reasoning. KCB, EBL, Coop...that's where u'll find me for a long time (they can reach their peak when I have reached my peak) hapana OTW.
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