Wazua
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@QW - NFP today will be a none event as much as the jobs print will be bad - already priced in by the risk off mood. The EURUSD cross having tanked almost 400pips yesterday should bounce a little today, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it test 1.44 before proper buy support comes in. At 1.45xx it is still in no man's land. The silver massacre continues and if it closes at $33.60 today that will be a 32% back-flip. It has already surpassed my buy target of $35, but the selling is not yet complete. Yesterday oil too fell down by more than 10%. Seems like the commodities market has hit the fan for now... Update - NFP prints a positive jobs figure; more than expected and the EURUSD immediately spikes down to 1.4450s. Meanwhile USDJPY spikes up to almost 81.00.
CADJPY is a better trade from 83.70 if the pullback allows.
The ugliest 4hr chart I've scoped after yesterday's euro massacre is the EURAUD cross. This one has acres of room to tank.
update 2 - CADJPY long position order triggered @83.70. SL - 83.00 and TP - 85.00. Will keep it alive till Tuesday. This is a small position - lot size 0.2.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The Greek debt restructuring talk that started yesterday after market hours are not very encouraging to euro bulls. May 2010 saw Greek default knock down the euro. May 2011 we are back again full cycle... Same script different time and with an additional character - Portugal. In short it is time to start selling the EURUSD rallies. If the EURUSD cross bounces to 1.47 - 1.48 I levels I go short. Will update the trades when taken. http://economictimes.ind...articleshow/8187248.cms
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gm9q8uabTs $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Asia session on australia pre open sees EURUSD ticked down to 1.435x. All 1.44xx buy stops cleared?! The Greece drama begins... Closed CADJPY @ 83.40, 70pips loss. I'm staying out of this madness for now since EURUSD is already down almost 800pips in 3 days!? It feels like silver... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Today trading may be uncertain. Albeit the gains being seen in commodities, silver now $35.7, and gold $1501.3. We cant rule out occasional strengthening of the dollar due to flight to safe haven tendancies as was witnessed last week and positive NFP figures on friday, and therefore some choppiness. Therefore, today I stay out of the market. UsdX now at 74.6. Will be looking for small retracement opportunities on the euro, gbp and aussie later on in the week. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Ceinz - Commodities took too much in the chin during the sharp selloff and will retrace some, but the selling bout is not yet done. Better buy opportunities will present themselves in 3 weeks time. If you look at the silver exit volume as it raced to $48-50 levels, I expect that supply to take a while to clear. Same case with gold at $1560-1580 and brent oil at $125. The longterm bullish channels still hold, but in the short term, going long now means you get chopped out many times. I hope you still holding on to the short EURGBP trade. This one looks to test 0.86 before proper support comes in. EURUSD - is excessively oversold in the short timeframes, should bounce at least to 1.44 - 1.45 before sellers come back. For the USD trade, I'll take some small sells on the EURUSD when the levels mentioned above are hit, but the AUDUSD is my favourite for the USD play. Above 1.08x I'll be short as I expect gold, silver and oil to be overbought by then in this current brief rally. I'm also scoping the AUDCAD for my swing trade. If it can test the 1.05 level the better to confirm the double top on the long time frame - monthly. The aussie all time highs look like the euro all time highs back in 2008. The crash of this crowded longs party will be interesting when it unravels... This is why I've been an aussie seller in anticipation of the bullish fallout... I'm also seeing the same thing on the singapore dollar and the rand... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:@Ceinz - Commodities took too much in the chin during the sharp selloff and will retrace some, but the selling bout is not yet done. Better buy opportunities will present themselves in 3 weeks time. If you look at the silver exit volume as it raced to $48-50 levels, I expect that supply to take a while to clear. Same case with gold at $1560-1580 and brent oil at $125. The longterm bullish channels still hold, but in the short term, going long now means you get chopped out many times. I hope you still holding on to the short EURGBP trade. This one looks to test 0.86 before proper support comes in.
EURUSD - is excessively oversold in the short timeframes, should bounce at least to 1.44 - 1.45 before sellers come back.
For the USD trade, I'll take some small sells on the EURUSD when the levels mentioned above are hit, but the AUDUSD is my favourite for the USD play. Above 1.08x I'll be short as I expect gold, silver and oil to be overbought by then in this current brief rally. I'm also scoping the AUDCAD for my swing trade. If it can test the 1.05 level the better to confirm the double top on the long time frame - monthly. The aussie all time highs look like the euro all time highs back in 2008. The crash of this crowded longs party will be interesting when it unravels... This is why I've been an aussie seller in anticipation of the bullish fallout... I'm also seeing the same thing on the singapore dollar and the rand...
Thanx bro for your advice. Unfortunately I exited the EUR/GBP trade early, 1 position my sl was it, it was a bit tighter, the other position was exited at market, I got about 100 pips on both.Should have been patient, price currently holding at previous support 0.8750. I lost the silver I was aiming to go long at $30-32. I've been looking forward to the AUD/CAD trade since you mentioned it earlier at 1.04 - 1.05. This, if it goes well, will be my first long term trade (> a week)as u are aware I have been more of a short term person. Good take on the AUD highs/ drawing similarity to euro 2008 highs, will be on the look out for the 'bulllish fallout' “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Position 1 pips (600pips = 200x3 of 0.1 lot sizes) booked on AUDUSD short at 1.0810 taken on Tuesday. Position 2 (lot size 0.5) SL adjusted to breakeven and sell target revised to 1.05. I'm looking for 10k this month and I'll get from this aussie... Am I aggressive, yes... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Will be looking for short term opportunities/ day trades within an hour after American open on GBP, Aussie and Silver depending on how the F/A s turn out. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I am waiting to see how ECB and EU handle the anti-aid loggerheads from Finland. I'm also waiting to see what 2nd package Greece gets in order to determine if ECB will be forced to reverse their stupid April rate hike move with all the foul defaults follow through. If the package is full of debtor traps (expected), then shorting the EURGBP will be my play in anticipation of the ECB reversing the rate hike. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Waiting for Australia preopen to see how the IMF MD arrest works its magic on markets and the EURUSD. Euro bulls must be wondering what they did to the money gods 10 trading days ago when all was rosy... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/3/2006 Posts: 19 Location: UK
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I think Silver will start to consolidate at 35 before the next 3rd wave that will see it reach $150 In every game and con there is always a victim and there is always an opponent. It’s good to know when you are the former so you can become the latter.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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WOW! it has been a long break bt am back. WEEK AHEAD: Short NZDUSD@0.7844 TP 1.7730 SL 0.7905 SHORT EURCAD@1.3656 TP 1.3450 SL 1.3756 SHORT EURUSD@1.4087 TP 1.3800 SL 1.4250 Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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you must be joking .....shorting the euro and euro zone cpi is on deck. asin is coming up at 11.30 am today,monday.dnt even dare...am long lookin for a better entry.i expect a bounce today atleast in the london session...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Welcome back. I second Qw, its important that you wait for the FAs on the Euro b4 pulling the trigger. “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Long on USD/CAD @ 0.9695, at 1/2 position. SL 0.9635 Rsn. Neck line Break at 0.9600 of the inverse head and shoulder, on the 1-H Chart and also riding on the dollar bullishness. If the trade goes well i will add another 1/2 positions at 0.9780 (downward sloping trend line break), and 0.9880. Possible target 1.000 (parity). Will maintain a 50- pops trailing stop. Short order on GBP/USD @ 1.6150 booked. I expect a projection to 1.6040, once the market clears support pivot @ 1.6156. Possible target 1.6000 “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Hey Fxers, have a look at the USD/SGD weekly pair, crazy downtrend. Pays to focus on the EM currencies. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Ceinz wrote:Hey Fxers, have a look at the USD/SGD weekly pair, crazy downtrend. Pays to focus on the EM currencies. AUD/CAD, USD/SGD and USD/ZAR are on my long term trade list. The bullish overcrowding will be trimmed swiftly as the banks close out their carry trades. I really regret missing out the USDZAR long at 6.60. I hope it comes back. This is now a triple bottom zone and USDZAR should break above 7.20 in coming weeks and head to 7.50 in coming months.
USD/SGD rebound will target 1.2800 in coming months.
AUDCAD is still undecided. But another test of 1.04 - 1.05 and failure to clear above this will invite heavy selling as it will confirm a triple top. I will be short large if it plays out this way. A lot size of 1.0 or 1.5 will be my preference.
Taken a small EURGBP short @0.8820 lot size 0.2, SL - 0.8880 and TP - 0.8720. I am trying to ride the H&S formation on the monthly. Still forming the H&S so this is a risky attempt, but I doubt EURGBP will push back above 0.90xx. If this trade confirm the H&S then the long term target should be 0.85 before heading to 0.82 if selling pressure is huge.
The lot size 0.5 AUDUSD short is still on and TP still remain 1.05. If AUDUSD gets to 1.0750 I'll add to the short position.
I'm also scooping USDCHF. If it can test 0.8680 again, I'll be long for the next push above 0.89.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:Ceinz wrote:Hey Fxers, have a look at the USD/SGD weekly pair, crazy downtrend. Pays to focus on the EM currencies. AUD/CAD, USD/SGD and USD/ZAR are on my long term trade list. The bullish overcrowding will be trimmed swiftly as the banks close out their carry trades. I really regret missing out the USDZAR long at 6.60. I hope it comes back. This is now a triple bottom zone and USDZAR should break above 7.20 in coming weeks and head to 7.50 in coming months.
USD/SGD rebound will target 1.2800 in coming months.
AUDCAD is still undecided. But another test of 1.04 - 1.05 and failure to clear above this will invite heavy selling as it will confirm a triple top. I will be short large if it plays out this way. A lot size of 1.0 or 1.5 will be my preference.
Taken a small EURGBP short @0.8820 lot size 0.2, SL - 0.8880 and TP - 0.8720. I am trying to ride the H&S formation on the monthly. Still forming the H&S so this is a risky attempt, but I doubt EURGBP will push back above 0.90xx. If this trade confirm the H&S then the long term target should be 0.85 before heading to 0.82 if selling pressure is huge.
The lot size 0.5 AUDUSD short is still on and TP still remain 1.05. If AUDUSD gets to 1.0750 I'll add to the short position.
I'm also scooping USDCHF. If it can test 0.8680 again, I'll be long for the next push above 0.89. I will be entering a short trade on USD/SGD any time at a small lot size, from 0.1 and will gradually add on to it, at the last low 1.2220, and at successive lows on rebounds. I have reservations on the EUR/GBP trade, Euro is turning bullish since the rescue plan for portugal was agreed, and GBP is generally weak. Good luck. “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Getting ready for the week ahead. Took a look on the AUD/CAD pair and it appear like the 1.0400 resistance is holding. Good idea to start hunting for long term short opportunities as pointed out by Hisah. I will be on the look out for short term long opportunities on euro pairs early in the week as it regains on friday losses. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Positions update - AUDUSD short @ 1.0810 lot size 0.5 profits booked (1489 pips). Short EURGBP @0.8810 lot size 0.2 still active and SL revised to breakeven - risk free. @Ceinz - I think EURGBP might just work out on the H&S call though it was a risky trade. If EURGBP breaks below .8630, I'll add on the next rebound towards 0.8750 on a larger lot. USDCHF failed to reach my buy target of 0.86. I have removed it from my list. I am now going to concentrate on AUDCAD, USDZAR and USDSGD. If AUDCAD can rebound to 1.0350, I'll be short. 1.04 handle has thwarted two attempts since the April failure and this confirms a double top has formed in the medium term. Happy trading... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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