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Impact of full county roll-out on various industries and stocks
blacksilvergal
#1 Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2011 6:09:06 PM
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Joined: 3/10/2011
Posts: 18
This may have been asked and answered but did not find any trace. What industries will be affected - negatively or positively - when the full impact of the county roll-out is felt from 2012 and which stocks will be affected? Taking into account the expected heavy recurrent expenditure burden on treasury.
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 4:53:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Those that supply goods & services to government institutions... yaani, if you are 'connected'...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Lolest!
#3 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 6:45:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
I believe county governments are overhyped. There is no major difference between them and local authorities ie current councils. I do not expect any major improvement of earnings for any stock based on this.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
youcan'tstopusnow
#4 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 9:24:49 AM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:
Those that supply goods & services to government institutions... yaani, if you are 'connected'...

Laughing out loudly In the aftermath of regime change, the 'connected' firms may change
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#5 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 9:38:22 AM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Banks, Cement & Energy stocks.
2012
#6 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 9:52:55 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
I can only see positive effects. Fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) will be the most affected in my opinion because counties will find ways of manufacturing the items themselves. I don't see why anyone will need to bring in basics like milk, bread, cooking oil, soaps etc from other county while there's a high number of unemployed youth within that county unless it's not naturally available. I see many small industries coming up by 2015 that will challenge major industries like the breweries, toothpastes etc. People currently working in these sectors have a great opportunity to set up industries at home. Banks will be laughing all the way as usual.

BBI will solve it
:)
Mpenzi
#7 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 11:18:31 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/17/2008
Posts: 1,234
2012 wrote:
I can only see positive effects. Fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) will be the most affected in my opinion because counties will find ways of manufacturing the items themselves. I don't see why anyone will need to bring in basics like milk, bread, cooking oil, soaps etc from other county while there's a high number of unemployed youth within that county unless it's not naturally available. I see many small industries coming up by 2015 that will challenge major industries like the breweries, toothpastes etc. People currently working in these sectors have a great opportunity to set up industries at home. Banks will be laughing all the way as usual.


While some might do well, most will hardly survive in light of competing cheaper products from abroad and current big players who have economies of scale - unless you are suggesting protectionist policies that care not about market forces.

What difference will counties make? ie what has stopped the setting up of such industries in those areas you suggest they will suddenly spring up?
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 11:25:50 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
@2012 - LOL... you are joking! Unless each county 'bars' products from other counties...

Bidco in Thika is better suited than some guy filling cans with cooking fat in Mandera!

EABL in Ruaraka - ditto!

KQ - Kwani, it will fly to every county?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#9 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 12:29:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Mpenzi wrote:
While some might do well, most will hardly survive in light of competing cheaper products from abroad and current big players who have economies of scale - unless you are suggesting protectionist policies that care not about market forces.


@Mpenzi and VVS

Counties competing to generate revenues for development and creating jobs for the most dangerous group, the youth will be a major focus from 2013. I can assure you mid-size industries will spring up everywhere and the biggest casualties will be the FMCG big boys. Just look around and see all the things small women groups are manufacturing - from aloe-vera soaps to cooking fat, mini-bakeries, milk saccos, packaged farm produce etc. I can tell you for a fact that things won't be the same. Just tembea kidogo and see how Indians are acquiring land in counties to put up industries.

BBI will solve it
:)
Lolest!
#10 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 7:30:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
The belief that counties will be small govts has been fuelled by lies by politicians. These counties will be the same as local authorities of today ie councils. Their duties and powers are spelt out in the 4th schedule of the constitution which are similar to council duties in Local Govt Act...these counties will not even be responsible for primary school education! They will do licensing and promotion of trade but that to me is vague and doesnt involve things people r hoping for here. As for construction industry, the gains will be minimal because county hqs will be in 1 town while leaving out development of other towns in the county. We may end up disbanding current 300plus districts thus I dont see how the banking sector will benefit.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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