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where is the dollar going????
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mufasa
#1 Posted : Thursday, May 12, 2011 12:10:41 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 238
The market has been undersold for weeks but the bounces have so far still been dismal. could it be possible that with such attractive dollar rates for foreign investors, we be prepared for a rally upwards. or will the dollar rate improve and with it the possibility of a rally diminish? somebody demystify this dollar rate for me please with regards to the market
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Cde Monomotapa
#2 Posted : Thursday, May 12, 2011 12:17:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Yipee! KCB ought to make more Q2 up from the 748M they made in Q1 purely from FCY business!
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 12, 2011 12:29 PM | Reason: :-P
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Thursday, May 12, 2011 12:28:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
P.S: That 748M from FCY business was 70% more than what they made in Q1 2010 (440M).
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RVP
#4 Posted : Thursday, May 12, 2011 12:44:40 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/3/2010
Posts: 69
Dollar breaks 86. http://www.xe.com/curren...ts/?from=USD&to=KES

But I am not complaining. :)
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kizee1
#5 Posted : Thursday, May 12, 2011 12:59:56 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
cbk have been very active this week, yes the amounts they are buyin are miniscule but the message their action(s) send(s) is that they dont mind seeing the local unit get weaker which then means they dont care about keeping inflation in check?
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Wendz
#6 Posted : Thursday, May 12, 2011 1:18:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
RVP wrote:
Dollar breaks 86. http://www.xe.com/curren...ts/?from=USD&to=KES

But I am not complaining. :)


86?????? waaaaaoh! Now i need a loan!
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kizee1
#7 Posted : Thursday, May 12, 2011 2:52:27 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
wendz

not a gud idea....borrow to buy a lower yielding ccy...
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hisah
#8 Posted : Thursday, May 12, 2011 7:21:23 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
wendz

not a gud idea....borrow to buy a lower yielding ccy...


@Kizee1 - Last year when the euro was killed in May and June it was a good buy at Ksh 97. Now that the same theme seems to be playing out. Will the weak Ksh allow for those levels again? This is what I'm hoping for. If it can get to as low as Ksh 100, I'll be buying it and sell it sometime in December for the holiday spend and some investments... CBK too was out buying the euro. Hmmm...

As for the USDKES, clear CBK's actions want it to test Ksh 90... Globally I think the USD is poised for a sharp rebound which might make Ksh 90 look like a soft target! Will CBK allow USD/KES to swing to Ksh 100? At the current exchange rate, inflation is bad enough. At Ksh 90 - 100, inflation will be frying investment gains and people will be throwing stones... Sad

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 12, 2011 7:26 PM | Reason: Not specified
kizee1
#9 Posted : Thursday, May 12, 2011 9:39:35 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
wendz

not a gud idea....borrow to buy a lower yielding ccy...


@Kizee1 - Last year when the euro was killed in May and June it was a good buy at Ksh 97. Now that the same theme seems to be playing out. Will the weak Ksh allow for those levels again? This is what I'm hoping for. If it can get to as low as Ksh 100, I'll be buying it and sell it sometime in December for the holiday spend and some investments... CBK too was out buying the euro. Hmmm...

As for the USDKES, clear CBK's actions want it to test Ksh 90... Globally I think the USD is poised for a sharp rebound which might make Ksh 90 look like a soft target! Will CBK allow USD/KES to swing to Ksh 100? At the current exchange rate, inflation is bad enough. At Ksh 90 - 100, inflation will be frying investment gains and people will be throwing stones... Sad


what would it cost wendz to borrow to fund a short kes possy? the differential would ideally erode her gains but then again if the rate moves fast enough as it well may then its a good idea...so now every1 talkin of 90 eh..please note the cash market is FINITE,...cbk r sterilizing their purchases...i would error on the side of caution
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Horton
#10 Posted : Friday, May 13, 2011 8:47:32 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
How about buying the usd now as the cross between the euro and the usd is at an all time high(1.42 as of jana) and its not backed by fundamentals as the greek drama unfolds...im sure the dollar will come through..... also if the usd is at an all time low to the euro n gbp and the shilling is also at an all time low to the USD, however our inflation at the moment does not support going long on KES, usd could be a good long//
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