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Burning Spear		#41 Posted : Thursday, April 28, 2011 6:59:24 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 1,139		hisah wrote: the deal wrote: While you expect it to fall its rallyyyyyyiiing. CFC goes down to Ksh 40 in March 2010 after a profit warning a month before and within 6 months it hits a high of 90/- against all odds. Baffling CFCI is listed in April and in a few days it rallies to a high of 16/- while everyone is baffled yet again Now I'm a fan of conspiracy theories. So I'll try and explain it as a such. I have seen a math pattern between the two. The CFC rally was 1.25 times the low price. The CFCI high is 1.35 times the introduction price. Coincidence In a few months time the CFCI high will look like a trip to Pluto. Stay tuned am not ready to touch where indians and south africans invest in kenya. you may wake up with fully burnt legs if not fingers "You're not supposed to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who says it". Malcolm X
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PKoli		#42 Posted : Thursday, April 28, 2011 10:40:06 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587		Burning Spear wrote: hisah wrote: the deal wrote: While you expect it to fall its rallyyyyyyiiing. CFC goes down to Ksh 40 in March 2010 after a profit warning a month before and within 6 months it hits a high of 90/- against all odds. Baffling CFCI is listed in April and in a few days it rallies to a high of 16/- while everyone is baffled yet again Now I'm a fan of conspiracy theories. So I'll try and explain it as a such. I have seen a math pattern between the two. The CFC rally was 1.25 times the low price. The CFCI high is 1.35 times the introduction price. Coincidence In a few months time the CFCI high will look like a trip to Pluto. Stay tuned am not ready to touch where indians and south africans invest in kenya. you may wake up with fully burnt legs if not fingers We are yet to see value realization from the bank. We should see some price upsurge by release of HY results
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VituVingiSana		#43 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2011 2:55:36 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,361 Location: Nairobi		Burning Spear wrote: hisah wrote: the deal wrote: While you expect it to fall its rallyyyyyyiiing. CFC goes down to Ksh 40 in March 2010 after a profit warning a month before and within 6 months it hits a high of 90/- against all odds. Baffling CFCI is listed in April and in a few days it rallies to a high of 16/- while everyone is baffled yet again Now I'm a fan of conspiracy theories. So I'll try and explain it as a such. I have seen a math pattern between the two. The CFC rally was 1.25 times the low price. The CFCI high is 1.35 times the introduction price. Coincidence In a few months time the CFCI high will look like a trip to Pluto. Stay tuned am not ready to touch where indians and south africans invest in kenya. you may wake up with fully burnt legs if not fingers Kuweni serious! I am happy to invest in these. They are among the best run firms except merali, pattni & somaia who are politically connected. Only idiots trust these three! So I assume you do not invest in - DTBK, Jubilee, NMG, TPSEA [All which have made me good money! Never lost here. All are higher than the IPO or Rights price!] - ScanGroup [Another profitable one for me. I bought at the IPO] - ARM [I regret not buying these. 3/- a few years ago. If I had bought 100,000, for only 300,000/- I would have Sh17.5mn + dividends leo!] - Carbacid [Apparently, the #1 shareholder is BC Patel? Lakini, very profitable company! I regret selling my shares but even then I made 100% return in 2 years!] - City Trust [Illiquid but it has done well for me] - Crown Berger [I sold mine at a slight profit but then it did very well. Stagnated of late] C&G [Seems to be quite profitable but shares are illiquid. CEO & majority owner seems Gidoomal akina Giro Bank] KenolKobil [A roller coaster but overall I made money. The price before the split was around 150/- so until we see 15/- I am still underwater for the 'old' shares I bought] Historically, the best Banks have been multinationals. The worst have been local banks e.g. KCB, NBK, Kenya Finance Bank. EXCEPT the phenomenal Equity Bank. Best bank ever for investors! Coop listed recently so too early to tell. CFC Bank [It did very well under former CEOs Jani & soundarajan but after Stanbic a disaster] Failures Pan-African Insurance [Before my time it was respectable firm. Apparently some Mhindi from Mombasa. Then came the crooks like nyammo & his friends. They destroyed Kenya Finance Bank. Even forced PAI to invest in KFB. Finally PAI sold to S.Africans but the performance has been lousy vs Jubilee. The profitable APA Insurance was run by Apollo Insurance] Olympia [One of my WORST investments. matu wamae & michael matu. I do not think anyone has nice things to say about him. Dunlop was good until these nyeri guys came in then they took all teh cash out for themselves] Uchumi [I remember a guy Suresh Shah. We made money in those days! 5/- dividends & 60/- share price! Then akina kirubi came with his kin akina thairu] EAPCC [Bure kabisa! It was bigger than ARM but ARM has beat it by a mile! Managed by GoK appointees] Marshalls [Once pattni & somaia got into it, it was all downhill] Sasini, eveready, sameer [I avoid ALL merali firms. Only idiots buy into these long-term] KenGen [eddy njoroge. Bure kabisa in my view. Better to buy KPLC] KenRe [Useless. Compared to the Mhindis at Jubilee these guys are bure kabisa even with GUARANTEED concessions! They buy forest/land from ruto. Jubilee would not be so stupid] Safaricom [Overall, I lost money. The firm is doing OK lakini we were conned into paying 5/-. Don't forget akina moi scammed us through mobitelea & kibaki did nothing. Bure kabisa!] Mumias [Another perennial under-performer. Too political] So-so Unga [Run by kiereni & friends. Hopefully, the Americans will turn it around] CMC [It did very well under Martin Forster but then ran aground. I made money on this one! Lucky to sell out in time] Williamson & Kapchorua [They have been volatile. Owned & managed by kaburus. Magor family of UK] Kakuzi [Owned & managed by kaburus but the land is worth a lot if Tatu City is developed] Limuru Tea [Owned & managed by kaburus. The share price has not risen in years. That said, I sold out & I think I made money. Very illiquid] HFCK [This one did a roller coaster on me. Overall, I lost money. If not for Equity, I would have lost even more! Equity saved HFCK] KPLC [Gichuru then Njoroge. This was a disaster. At least the new guy is better but I am still in the hole] KQ [I used to think Naikuni was awesome until you see he survived on Brian Presbury's early years' good work. Since then almost a disaster but I still have hope!] So except for Equity... most of my best returns on the NSE over the past 20+ years [mimi ni mzee] have been from the Mhindi firms. Not sure what others say? I would dread to have solely put money into Kenya Finance Bank, HFCK, Pan Africa, Uchumi [post- Shah], Mumias, KPLC, Olympia/Dunlop, etc when I started out! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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youcan'tstopusnow		#44 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2011 9:16:28 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa		VVS, you having been in the game for over 2 decades, I have a few questions. Did you start out as a long term investor or first got into the market with the idea of frequently trading? Do you then believe that buying good companies and holding for a long period of time gives optimal returns to investors as opposed to any other method? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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the deal		#45 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2011 9:49:16 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		THE RAAAAAAAALLLLLYYY CONTINUEEEESSSS.......I'M GONNNNA RIDE THIS SUCKER TILL THE END....
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MaichBlack		#46 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2011 10:03:42 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,869		We are just looking at earnings while judging this stock. How were assets, liabilities etc. subdivided between the two companies. Anyone who has gone through this information meticulously? Why are investors so engrossed CFCI while largely ignoring CFC Stanbic? Is there something we don't know? Might we end up holding the monkey after selling the goose? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Aguytrying		#47 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2011 10:12:17 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040		Hapa kuna kitu, there's something we dont know. nice point about, division of liabilities, assets etc The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana		#48 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2011 7:12:46 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,361 Location: Nairobi		youcan'tstopusnow wrote: VVS, you having been in the game for over 2 decades, I have a few questions. Did you start out as a long term investor or first got into the market with the idea of frequently trading? Do you then believe that buying good companies and holding for a long period of time gives optimal returns to investors as opposed to any other method? I became a Warren Buffet fan very early on so I would say I am Buy & Hold but: - I will sell if the price gets crazy. An example is when CMC really jumped. I bailed not coz the firm was doing poorly but the price on the PER & NAV was nuts! - I see better opportunities elsewhere. Multiple examples & probably why I have sold out of good firms. I sold some 'other' shares to get into KenolKobil recently. I never got into trading. I tried it but failed since the commission costs 20 years ago were even higher! So trading was more profitable for brokers than for me. If the buy/sell cost was 5% then I would have to make more than 5% [+ loss of interest] to break even. In the early 90s interest rates were 60% [5% per month] on T-Bills. Say I bought a stock at 100. I would need 5% per month capital appreciation + 5% to cover trading costs just to break even. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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VituVingiSana		#49 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2011 7:18:35 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,361 Location: Nairobi		@youcant - I have to say the Aga Khan firms have done very well for me. All of them! I was too young to get into DTB & Jubilee & NMG IPOs but TPS has done well. I have always bought into the Rights. All have paid off for me. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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youcan'tstopusnow		#50 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2011 8:38:56 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa		VVS, asante sana for sharing. Most wouldn't. You continually offer Wazuans new insights on investing. Once again, thanks very much! GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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