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CFC Insurance Holdings - Share Price to tumble!
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mwanahisa
#31 Posted : Wednesday, April 27, 2011 11:27:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I will be damned. It continues to defy reason to trade at 15. But good luck to those who are buying. I fear for you.
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sparkly
#32 Posted : Wednesday, April 27, 2011 12:16:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
I was waiting for it at Sh 5.

Current price is not justified given the low penetration levels of insurance products i.e. many providers fighting for a cake that is not quite expending!

If CFCIH introduces some killer products that will encourage insurance uptake, i might consider.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana
#33 Posted : Wednesday, April 27, 2011 12:18:49 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
This is one stock I would short... If I could!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#34 Posted : Thursday, April 28, 2011 12:29:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
While you expect it to fall its rallyyyyyyiiing.
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PKoli
#35 Posted : Thursday, April 28, 2011 12:54:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
sparkly wrote:
I was waiting for it at Sh 5.

Current price is not justified given the low penetration levels of insurance products i.e. many providers fighting for a cake that is not quite expending!

If CFCIH introduces some killer products that will encourage insurance uptake, i might consider.



This is one stock that has really baffled me. I expected it to settle around KES 10.
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mukiha
#36 Posted : Thursday, April 28, 2011 3:23:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
I also don't understand why people are paying over 10 for it. Anyway, I put in my sell order at 16 and I think it was taken up. waiting confirmation SMS from CDSC at 4pm....
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Aguytrying
#37 Posted : Thursday, April 28, 2011 4:30:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Im not too surprised myself, these ipo's make investors euphoric, just you wait for the axe to drop. Unless of course they know some thing we dont.

Looking at it, before the cfc stanbic holdings share got this dividend en speci it was trading in the 70's. 16+58= 74. Meaning even if you sell your CFCIH now at 16 (which is a good idea), you'll have to wait for the cfc stanbic share to regain to around 70, or there abouts to realise your true profits.

Its interesting to watch its like all the attetion of cfc has gone to cfcih, while i logically thought it should be the other way round.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mwanahisa
#38 Posted : Thursday, April 28, 2011 4:30:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
the deal wrote:
While you expect it to fall its rallyyyyyyiiing.


@the deal. Seems you got me there. But I would never have bought it at more than Kshs 10, unless some new facts have come to the fore. So far I am not aware of any.
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hisah
#39 Posted : Thursday, April 28, 2011 4:41:36 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
While you expect it to fall its rallyyyyyyiiing.


CFC goes down to Ksh 40 in March 2010 after a profit warning a month before and within 6 months it hits a high of 90/- against all odds. Baffling smile

CFCI is listed in April and in a few days it rallies to a high of 16/- while everyone is baffled yet again smile

Now I'm a fan of conspiracy theories. So I'll try and explain it as a such. I have seen a math pattern between the two.

The CFC rally was 1.25 times the low price.
The CFCI high is 1.35 times the introduction price.

Coincidence smile

In a few months time the CFCI high will look like a trip to Pluto. Stay tuned smile


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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sparkly
#40 Posted : Thursday, April 28, 2011 5:01:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@hisah well captured. @aguy i also expected real value to be unlocked in the bank whose earnings though mediocre have been consistent. It is the insurance business that has been causing the roller coaster.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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