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Safaricom good for trading
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selah
#11 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 2:17:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
mwanahisa wrote:
Companies only need to issue a profit warning if they expect net profits to decline by at least 25%. As far as I know there is also no timeline by which the profit warning has to be issued.

In the past, I have also known a couple of companies fail to issue the requisite profit warning and no sanctions were imposed by CMA or the NSE. I have also seen one company issue a profit warning shortly before results were released.

I would expect Safricom to behave better than the above. So at worst, I expect Safricom's results not to be lower by more than 25% vis-avis 2010. I actually anticipate slightly negative to flat results. Flat results for SCOM however would be absolutely commendable!

Barrywhite wrote:

Possibly negative results? Would it be fair to say if the results were negative, there should have been a profit warning by now? What are the conditions necessary for issuance of a profit warning?



I really see you guys eating humble pie if you expect safaricoms earnings to ease...Just last week safaricom was showcasing their latest products they are about to launch.something to do with Medicare and cloud computing.Pasha centers will be rolling out this year and safaricom has products that will definitely hook its customers even more.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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mwanahisa
#12 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 2:37:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Even though I only own a nominal 100 shares of Safaricom, I would actually be delighted if SCOM were to report better results than they did last year. Mainly because I have other shares on the NSE. If SCOM's results are bad it will be negative for the market as a whole.

I cannot however bury my head in the sand. My prognosis for profitability of the company is actually rather optimistic - at flat to slight drop in EPS. But perhaps you can help me see how SCOM will improve on last year's figures. And kindly provide some facts and figures while at it.
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Impunity
#13 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 3:16:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,331
Location: Masada
lovely2010 wrote:
the deal wrote:
jerry wrote:
2012 wrote:
Very true!
Good observation @the deal.

>>and what's the turnaround, 2 or 3 cycles per month?

Yeaah 2 cycles a month...it always go up to 4.20 when foreigners are buying...it falls back the moment they stop buying...if i put a ka 50K at 3.80 tht will give me 13100 shares...if i sell @ 4.20 i will make around 5K...if i do it 2X in a month thats a cool 10K...NB: your broker should be CFC...1% commission.smile


@the deal...dont mess things up...comm is still 1.9%


@lovely and 2the deal I think this thing was reduced to 1%...or when is it becoming effective?
d'oh!
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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selah
#14 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 3:25:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
mwanahisa wrote:
Even though I only own a nominal 100 shares of Safaricom, I would actually be delighted if SCOM were to report better results than they did last year. Mainly because I have other shares on the NSE. If SCOM's results are bad it will be negative for the market as a whole.

I cannot however bury my head in the sand. My prognosis for profitability of the company is actually rather optimistic - at flat to slight drop in EPS. But perhaps you can help me see how SCOM will improve on last year's figures. And kindly provide some facts and figures while at it.


check this out.

http://www.scribd.com/do...Citizen-Sylvia-Safaricom
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Cde Monomotapa
#15 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 3:55:47 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I beg to explain my position. I was a shareholder of S.com having bought them in the lower 3s & upper 2s. I felt comfortable thereafter under the good reasoning that Voice business was washed up & that we were to SMOOTHLY transit to Data & VAS as the new revenue drivers....That was untill I woke up to a full page Airtel Ad.stating 3/= per minute! I sold that very day @ 5.6 regardless of it being cum-div. Why did I sell? The reasoning of a SMOOTH transition from Voice to Data had been adversly DISRUPTED. My intuition advised me well that S.com would not ignore Airtels price action (as it did often with Zain) & indeed an overnight tarriff war ensued. We should be well advised to accept that Voice still contributes the bulk of S.com's revenues (70% last time I checked). Thus, what do you think happens when today it is 8 bob/min & next week it is 3 bob/min? Please note your costs have not adjusted downwards in line with the drop in tariff rates...what else do you expect? That should be self explanatory. Furthermore, it is this reason that B.Collymore is aggresively cost cutting & restructuring. To Lt.investors the above should be crystal clear. To short-term traders they needn't care but just be cautious.
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mwanahisa
#16 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 4:11:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@selah. I think you are missing the point. There is no doubt that Safaricom is a very innovative company as proven by this and many other initiatives. But as Cde writes. Safaricom's bread and butter is the voice business - and we all know that's not going too well.

I asked for facts and figures and you have not provided any.

The health innovation for the citizen is a great effort, but how much is it going to bring in, especially in the initial stages? In the overall scheme of things this is unlikely to make a big impact on profitability to begin with.

I still insist I am one of the more optimistic pundits (if you can call me that?) regarding SCOM but honestly, I will be ecstatic if they can just about manage last year's profits or even miss by 10%.

[quote=selah]
check this out.

http://www.scribd.com/do...itizen-Sylvia-Safaricom[/quote]
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selah
#17 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 4:24:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Mobile Termination charges March 2007 6.28 January
2008 5.27 January 2009 4.42 currently 2.21.

The pricing on voice has been linked to interconnect charges.

'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Cde Monomotapa
#18 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 4:37:20 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
All in all...by the end of May we will know what this thing has been up to.
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youcan'tstopusnow
#19 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 5:02:01 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
The question is for how long will voice continue to be the major component for Safaricom's revenue. It will not remain at 70% forever.
On other news, Airtel 3G bado? It better be good if they are keeping us waiting this long
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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mwanahisa
#20 Posted : Tuesday, April 26, 2011 5:12:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Safaricom is not doing badly as it is. I read somewhere that mobile companies in developed economies still derive more than 60% of their revenues from voice. I therefore do not see SCOM getting more than 50% of its turnover from data/other services any time soon.

youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
The question is for how long will voice continue to be the major component for Safaricom's revenue. It will not remain at 70% forever.
On other news, Airtel 3G bado? It better be good if they are keeping us waiting this long

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