The big banks will weather this storm i.e. KCB, BBK, Coop & Equity. All of these made most of their profits from interest income and even though margins will reduce with a high interest regime, they will still be able to tough it out. BBK of course made some serious money from the sale of the custodial business, but if we ignore that, you can still see they made some good money from their other business. Their overall profits for the year will however be down, but not in Q1.
I do not know how BBK does it, but they make money even when they do not grow their loan book as much as the other banks. Perhaps, it is because KCB and Equity Bank are losing quite a bit of money in their regional operations.
I believe it could also be an interesting year for Stanchart who make money when other banks fade and vice versa.
As for the mid tier banks - DTB, CFC Stanbic & NIC, I will definitely agree. They will be in for a pasting. They made too much of their 2010 profits from bond trading.
Note, I am referring to trading results not share prices.
guru267 wrote:mlennyma wrote:Many times analysts bite the dust,this prediction is not cast on stone but i agree this yr cant match last years rosses.
I agree with dyer and blair with an exception to KCB...
2011 wil rock KCB shareholders after q1