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Anticipation of KCB Q1 results 2011
erifloss
#31 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 1:23:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
erifloss, are you predicting flat Q1 results?

He/she would not dare. smile

Basically for the first two months banks might have made a kill but in March i'm sure they've had problems(loan repayment rates etc). The real effect will be felt in Q2, @guru, the western world are calling it the 'African revolution or rennaissance' and that's why the big banks are rushing in in drones even got some info that BB Plc have actually sent 2 of their directors to live in Kenya coz they don't want to miss this. with all this said, we live in a globalized society and there will always be a knockdown effect. Kindly look at the performance of most Western banks and you'll realise that the writings are on the wall (JM sold his shares stating that he was following statutory regulations? BBK reducing employee costs? KCB going BBK's route? Big banks going after the SME market segment?)
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
tonicasert
#32 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 1:28:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
I think the biggest downfall in Q1, and a larger extent in Q2 is the bond trading and revaluation income. Banks that didnt offload earlier in the year will have to revalue at a loss.

Then the latter half of the year will have write downs of bad loans as inflation effects bites.

Expansion in the region is the only way that will lift assets and profitability
Cde Monomotapa
#33 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 1:43:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
M.O.O was very clear during the press release of Q3 FY2010 results that they intend to be active as a lender in the inter-bank mkt due to excess yet to be deployed deposits (loans) KCB has. Now, at the time inter-bank rates were btwn 1-1.5% as of the 15th of April inter-bank rate was 5.4%. Presuming KCB did do what they said as above then it's mo money, mo money!!
youcan'tstopusnow
#34 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 1:57:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru267 wrote:
QW25071985 wrote:
Basically the profit is single digit but certainly and improvement from the last based on its on going price action ( factorin in if u wanna call it that way)

If you are talking about KCB can we place a wazua sanctioned OFFICIAL BET on it

He has problems with those
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#35 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 2:13:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
tonicasert wrote:
Expansion in the region is the only way that will lift assets and profitability

Are banks not already doing this? On this front, I think Equity's foray into Rwanda is great as its model will fit into that market
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#36 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 2:17:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Banks may have made money from forex
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
guru267
#37 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 2:34:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
erifloss wrote:
guru267 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
erifloss, are you predicting flat Q1 results?

He/she would not dare. smile

Basically for the first two months banks might have made a kill but in March i'm sure they've had problems(loan repayment rates etc). The real effect will be felt in Q2, @guru, the western world are calling it the 'African revolution or rennaissance' and that's why the big banks are rushing in in drones even got some info that BB Plc have actually sent 2 of their directors to live in Kenya coz they don't want to miss this. with all this said, we live in a globalized society and there will always be a knockdown effect. Kindly look at the performance of most Western banks and you'll realise that the writings are on the wall (JM sold his shares stating that he was following statutory regulations? BBK reducing employee costs? KCB going BBK's route? Big banks going after the SME market segment?)


@erifloss I am very bullish on the growth trajectory of kenyan banks and particularly KCB....

This bank is on a 3 year mission to drive the cost to income ratio down from 65% to the industry average of 53% which effectively rising the profits from the current 9.8 billion to a modest 15 billion in 2013.
This can happen no matter the environment because it is a ratio that management has set out to correct.

They also set to make return on assets at the industry average level and if thet did that one profits would be blown away..

All this will be observed in KCB's q1 results relative to those of the other banks..
I cant wait smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
erifloss
#38 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 2:58:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
erifloss wrote:
guru267 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
erifloss, are you predicting flat Q1 results?

He/she would not dare. smile

Basically for the first two months banks might have made a kill but in March i'm sure they've had problems(loan repayment rates etc). The real effect will be felt in Q2, @guru, the western world are calling it the 'African revolution or rennaissance' and that's why the big banks are rushing in in drones even got some info that BB Plc have actually sent 2 of their directors to live in Kenya coz they don't want to miss this. with all this said, we live in a globalized society and there will always be a knockdown effect. Kindly look at the performance of most Western banks and you'll realise that the writings are on the wall (JM sold his shares stating that he was following statutory regulations? BBK reducing employee costs? KCB going BBK's route? Big banks going after the SME market segment?)


@erifloss I am very bullish on the growth trajectory of kenyan banks and particularly KCB....

This bank is on a 3 year mission to drive the cost to income ratio down from 65% to the industry average of 53% which effectively rising the profits from the current 9.8 billion to a modest 15 billion in 2013.
This can happen no matter the environment because it is a ratio that management has set out to correct.

They also set to make return on assets at the industry average level and if thet did that one profits would be blown away..

All this will be observed in KCB's q1 results relative to those of the other banks..
I cant wait smile

@guru, as for q1 results will be good but not very good. As for q2 you will separate banks that can withstand the heat from the ones that can't. As cde has put it it will be on the basis of strategy, the deposits one holds & the calibre of clients they lend to. As one member once said once a business starts to concentrate on other biz that is not its core biz or reduce expenses to improve profitability then there is a problem.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
youcan'tstopusnow
#39 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 3:05:02 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
erifloss quantify good and very good. Good = 30%? Very good = 50% and above?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
QW25071985
#40 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2011 3:20:56 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
guru267 wrote:
QW25071985 wrote:
Basically the profit is single digit but certainly and improvement from the last based on its on going price action ( factorin in if u wanna call it that way)

If you are talking about KCB can we place a wazua sanctioned OFFICIAL BET on it

He has problems with those


@ guru267 .THE BET IS ON !!!!!!!!!!!

just for clarity .rules of the bet

i am saying profit is SINGLE DIGIT i.e 0-9 and you are sayin profit is double digit i.e from 10 - upwards.

Okay since that is out of the way.if i win you are comin over to my crib ...Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly . we dnt know what might transpire . if you win your wish is my command...simple...
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