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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:Ceinz wrote:EUR/JPY long position @121.80, SL 121.43 Trade was closed @ 121.89 (Inpatience)  Long on AUD/JPY @ 89.13, SL 88.75. “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:
Long on AUD/JPY @ 89.13, SL 88.75.
Trade exited @ 89.25. Will be loooking for long opportunities on this pair, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs later in the day. “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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The Anatomy of a Forex Trader.  “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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EUR/JPY is testing the 122.50 mark, which served as resistance earlier this week. A break above this resistance will be bullish for the pair and will trigger my long entry. However I will maintain a tight stop (afraid of yesterdays yen whipsaws after another quake scare). “small step for man”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Thanks 4r ua trade ideas guys. I've been trying my hand on forex for s'time. Cud u guide me as to which indicator(or resource) from where I can get info on real time trade volumes of forex pairs. If, for example, GBPUSD is rising can the volumes sustain the rise. I use oanda.com Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Long on EUR/USD @1.4446, TP 1.4520 and EUR/JPY @ 121.91, TP 122.45. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The USD index is not looking good to say the least. A collapse is coming as per the long term chart below if 74.23 support level doesn't hold the selling pressure. Beyond this level, it will sell off towards 71 - 72 and the RSI is not yet oversold?!. MACD too is still bearish. That means all the USD pairs will be pressured lower. AUDUSD could most likely take out 1.07 and EURUSD targets 1.47, the GBPUSD will target 1.66 - 1.67 and USDCHF targets 0.86 - 0.87. In short Aussie and Swissie to be very strong as gold and silver also support the moves higher. There's too much going on with the USD this April, while this is extremely bearish, be on the look out for a sharp turn coming weeks as the long term RSI sinks into oversold levels - most likely the rebound should come in June - July as QE2 unwinds. If QE3 is provided (and the mad men at US Fed bank) can do this, that will devalue the USD further at which point it will be senseless to hold USD bills... Copy this link to your browser http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$USD,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pb40!f][vc60][iue6,12,9!lj[$spx]]$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:Long on EUR/USD @1.4446, TP 1.4520 and EUR/JPY @ 121.91, TP 122.45. EUR/JPY SL was hit (-80 pips), Cant really comprehend why lately there have been whipsaws in JPY crosses esp during early hours of American open. Lesson 'Handle the yen with care' good news: So far, have scalped back (35 *2) pips on the pair this morning.  EUR/USD tarde exited @ 1.4494 (+ 48 pips) “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Ceinz wrote:Ceinz wrote:Long on EUR/USD @1.4446, TP 1.4520 and EUR/JPY @ 121.91, TP 122.45. EUR/JPY SL was hit (-80 pips), Cant really comprehend why lately there have been whipsaws in JPY crosses esp during early hours of American open. Lesson 'Handle the yen with care' good news: So far, have scalped back (35 *2) pips on the pair this morning. EUR/USD tarde exited @ 1.4494 (+ 48 pips) As long as the yen is massively intervened, the whipsaw effect will be the order of the day. Anyone who traded EURCHF in 2009 after the global bailout can tell you this story. The whipsaw was a rollercoaster. BoJ won't let go of the Yen easily, but they will in time and I expect USDJPY to hit 70.00 or lower! The yen will appreciate like it or not. The SNB tried the same tricks with EURCHF to devalue the swissie against the euro and failed. The same game is being played on EURJPY by BoJ and co.
The market always makes its price. And this intervention in due time will also fail... Therefore trade the JPY cross with care and tight stops.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:
As long as the yen is massively intervened, the whipsaw effect will be the order of the day. Anyone who traded EURCHF in 2009 after the global bailout can tell you this story. The whipsaw was a rollercoaster. BoJ won't let go of the Yen easily, but they will in time and I expect USDJPY to hit 70.00 or lower! The yen will appreciate like it or not. The SNB tried the same tricks with EURCHF to devalue the swissie against the euro and failed. The same game is being played on EURJPY by BoJ and co.
The market always makes its price. And this intervention in due time will also fail... Therefore trade the JPY cross with care and tight stops.
Cant agree more. The trend has been downwards from a high of 123.3 in June 2007, and in light of current happenings the pair is headed to the 70s level. “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Long on EUR/USD @1.4475, SL 1.4450, TP 1.4495 (1.4500 resistance still holds) AUD/USD @ 1.0506, SL 1.0484, TP 1.0535 “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:Long on EUR/USD @1.4475, SL 1.4450, TP 1.4495 (1.4500 resistance still holds) AUD/USD @ 1.0506, SL 1.0484, TP 1.0535 Both TPs were hit. “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Gold spikes higher to $1,490 after S&P downgrade to US credit rating outlook. Next significant level of resistance at $1,500. USD/CHF now down 80 pips. Short EUR/CHF @ 1.2791. SL 1.2835, More of a scalp, will exit early. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Ceinz wrote:Gold spikes higher to $1,490 after S&P downgrade to US credit rating outlook. Next significant level of resistance at $1,500.
USD/CHF now down 80 pips.
Short EUR/CHF @ 1.2791. SL 1.2835, More of a scalp, will exit early.
This is why I have avoided taking any trades since as I stated early this month, April is having to much ammo powder especially for the US. I didn't expect the S&P to pull off such a stunner at this time. I was expecting this around June towards end of QE2.0 so that it can be used as an excuse for QE3.0. But from the look of things, the banksters are not willing to wait for the defaults to kick in. Seems like they're running out of juice aka money to keep the global stocks up on the flotilla to utopia.
As long as global and silver are pulling off 9% moves in a week, the fiat system is cracking. And with the hasty G7 mega Yen intervention, that is one serious signal of the underlying floodgates tension and holding back the eurozone defaults will be impossible in coming months...
http://www.businessinsid...look-to-negative-2011-4
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:
This is why I have avoided taking any trades since as I stated early this month, April is having to much ammo powder especially for the US. I didn't expect the S&P to pull off such a stunner at this time. I was expecting this around June towards end of QE2.0 so that it can be used as an excuse for QE3.0. But from the look of things, the banksters are not willing to wait for the defaults to kick in. Seems like they're running out of juice aka money to keep the global stocks up on the flotilla to utopia.
As long as global and silver are pulling off 9% moves in a week, the fiat system is cracking. And with the hasty G7 mega Yen intervention, that is one serious signal of the underlying floodgates tension and holding back the eurozone defaults will be impossible in coming months...
http://www.businessinsid...look-to-negative-2011-4
I concur, trading this month has been challenging to say the least. The market is abit unpredictable and you being a swing trader, I understand ur decision to keep off. As for scalping, there are always opportunities to take advantage of. “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:Gold spikes higher to $1,490 after S&P downgrade to US credit rating outlook. Next significant level of resistance at $1,500.
USD/CHF now down 80 pips.
Short EUR/CHF @ 1.2791. SL 1.2835, More of a scalp, will exit early. Trade was exited @ 1.2776. Oops, should have held for longer, went all the way down to 1.2740 Faded USD/CHF as it recovered the 80 pips it had lost. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Waiting for gold to hit $1500 mark then I take me profits... Revised silver TP to $45 from $50. I expect the rally to cool of as profit taking suppresses the moves high. I hope gold gets back below $1400 and silver below $35 for the next buying opportunity. In the meantime I'm still scouting to short ZAR crosses especially ZARJPY and USDZAR. I see 1000pips move in monthly trades soon... Will update the trades when I take them. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:Waiting for gold to hit $1500 mark then I take me profits...
Revised silver TP to $45 from $50.
I expect the rally to cool of as profit taking suppresses the moves high. I hope gold gets back below $1400 and silver below $35 for the next buying opportunity.
In the meantime I'm still scouting to short ZAR crosses especially ZARJPY and USDZAR. I see 1000pips move in monthly trades soon... Will update the trades when I take them. Looking at these pairs and the commodities, I can't help but ask myself: 'What are the spreads?' Hope the guys a fxcm offer good spreads for these. “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:
In the meantime I'm still scouting to short ZAR crosses especially ZARJPY and USDZAR. I see 1000pips move in monthly trades soon... Will update the trades when I take them.
Nice head and shoulder in the USD/ZAR in the 4-hr chart, if it manages its way back to the previous support that will be a cool 300 pips move. My broker spread is about 45 to 50 pips on this. I dont have the ZAR/JPY pair in my platform or may be my broker doesn't offer it, but that not withstanding am still skeptic on a swing trade on the yen. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Ceinz wrote:hisah wrote:Waiting for gold to hit $1500 mark then I take me profits...
Revised silver TP to $45 from $50.
I expect the rally to cool of as profit taking suppresses the moves high. I hope gold gets back below $1400 and silver below $35 for the next buying opportunity.
In the meantime I'm still scouting to short ZAR crosses especially ZARJPY and USDZAR. I see 1000pips move in monthly trades soon... Will update the trades when I take them. Looking at these pairs and the commodities, I can't help but ask myself: 'What are the spreads?' Hope the guys a fxcm offer good spreads for these. The commodo spreads are fair, nothing to write home about.
I've noted the USDZAR 4hr H&S pattern, but this is too short term for me. However if the pair gets to test 6.60 next month, I'll be a long.
My rationale behind the ZARJPY is the G7 yen intervention failure in a few weeks time as QE2.0 comes to an end. The Japanese nuclear accident fate cannot be saved by a Yen intervention. Fukushima will be a ghost zone just like Chernobyl in months to come and its economical production is lost. It'll take time to rebuild another region and I expect the Asian markets to price in that fact soon. This will see yen savings increase thus boosting the yen value as yen funding unwinds. Then I expect the yen to increase value due to scarcity. This is how I view the yen cross trades. And as usual with yen cross, care should be taken due to wild swings... As for SA, I expect inflation to spike this year as USD becomes scarce. Doesn't make sense now, but it will when the eurozone defaults approach break point.
SA inflation - http://www.google.com/ho...1509d60a9ce820aee3d.601 $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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