my thoughts is;
For Raila to succeed,he has to get a running mate from Eastern part of Kenya (this includes central,NEP,Coast and the like) since Nyanza is in Western part,but all in all,i think the guy has lost in big time and NO people in Eastern part of kenya have confidence in him coz of his frequent change of goal posts.
Also,the Eastern part people (especially central) believe that Raila will revenge against what he keeps on saying traditional injustices against the Luo people.This is what makes him very unpopular and i do not think he has enough time to prove himself beyond that Eastern mentality.
My own observation is if Ocampo case will be thrown out before August 2012,UK and WR will have it big tyme as President and Deputy respectively and they know this because of the masses they are commanding.
"You're not supposed to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who says it". Malcolm X