Having looked at the market over the last 2/3 months, I think the NSE is unlikely to rise above 4,050 until 2013.
My reasons:
1. The political noise levels have frightened our banks from lending to the common mwananchi which means the economy won’t grow by more than 4.5%-5% and the banks themselves won’t make the kind of profits they did last year. The current noises are like having a neighbor who beats his wife every evening. He keeps you awake and you fear he may whip one evening. Banks are now chasing government securities and will continue to do so supported by
2. Higher interest rates: GoK overspend will continue between now and the new govt in 2013. This will entail higher borrowing (UK has already alluded to this in his budget statement last month).
3. Inflation is going one way: oil prices will probably standing heading downwards, but I expect inflation to stay because of
4. Patchy rains: our climate has changed and I expect rains to be followed by longer dry periods. We can change this (plant more trees), but in the meantime, we’ll see a higher population chasing less food. Patchy rains is also a problem given dependency on hydropower.

I agree 100% on the concern about patchy rains. The CBK in its latest bank survey indicated banks had already lent more in Jan & Feb 2011 than they did in all Q4 2010. Elec.should be sufficient, though expensive, with recent Kipevu 3 120MW. I also declare that 2012 will be very peaceful. I'd advise U against hanging on to what politicians r yapping about OTW oppurtunities will elude you. As for govt.spending, it needs money to live and sustain infrastructure devt.which is well with me.

It's to early to tell...the banks Q1 numbers will be a pointer wheather the NSE will carry the worst perfoming market in Africa tag for the whole year...LoL.

Greetings to you @mainat !!!

Times like this is pretty difficult for speculators.


For long termers it is ideal to build up with blue chips with high dividend yields.

It will be way above that in May. Q1 has been good for most companies despite high inflation, Ocampo and other things