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Jubilee Holdings results FY2010 profit jumps 84 pct
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,075 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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young wrote:
From the trend of events JUB price may not rise sharply as expected even though the result is very good because the return to shareholders especially the bonus issue is below expectation.
WE all know what happened to KCB, Pan Afric, KK and others that returned good results without sustainable rise in price.
For those that have not joined the bus,do not give up watch out you may have a chance to join in a a couple of weeks circa 190 bob.
I would say expect JUB at 200+ after a good Q1 2011 result and when the bulls fully return.
JUB price will go down because the mood of the market for now does not support consistent bull run irrespective of good results. There will be a chance for new entrants below 200 bob. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@Mzee Young i see buy bids at 210...below 200 you might have to wait for a little longer maybe 2012...lol
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Before the general population realises what msimon says (get it, simon says), ill be so out. i wanted 250, but ill take something lower....or wait for the bonus. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Aguytrying wrote:Before the general population realises what msimon says (get it, simon says), ill be so out. i wanted 250, but ill take something lower....or wait for the bonus.  The only thing that is left is for Cde to come in and cap it off with his "The NSE is not a Fish Market" quote Muthawamunene particularly loves it GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Aguytrying wrote:Before the general population realises what msimon says (get it, simon says), ill be so out. i wanted 250, but ill take something lower....or wait for the bonus. @Aguytrying. You will probably have noticed that Jubilee is one of my core positions which I would not offload lightly. This is unlike many of the other stocks that I speculate on. I would probably have been tempted to sell at 250. Such a big jump would have led to an avalanche of sell orders. But for sure, I would have bought back. At 220, I was not sure that I was getting value, even though I have lots of shares that I recently bought at between 175-190. I was afraid that I just might sell and then not be able to reclaim my shares at a lower price. Of course in hindsight I guess I should have supplied the bidders at 220-225. However, I made a deliberate decision to stay in. If you (and others) are ready to sell, I will be one of the takers, have no fear. I have made quite a bit of cash from my recent speculative activities and I need a safe home for my loot and hence I will buy as it falls. The bigger the fall, all the merrier for me. *NB* I am looking at the really long term on this. In the long run I know we will all be dead, but.......
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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msimon wrote:mlennyma wrote:I had projected atleast to see 220 and it has passed my litmus test.iam convinced the nse is among the top investment platforms.imagine from 175 to 220?almost all stocks will tripple for the five years after 2012 if we dont butcher each other. I wont allow myself to be taken up in this euphoria. After close examination of the results, Jubilee is overvalued and the only excitement will come in form of the bonus issue. Look closely at the cashflow from operations, these guys generated no free cashflow last year. The positive cashflow from operating activities is enhanced by the DAC's and the changes in insurance contract liabilities and reserves.(these are negatives ultimately). Insurers profit in a 3 pronged way. 1. Through underwriting margins. 2. Through Investment Income 3. Appreciation of the value of the assets. Typically, you want an insurer whose management focuses on all the three in that order. Now for Jubilee, indeed they have a great management team, but the euphoria surrounding the results is baseless as its driven by the 3rd which is erratic and prone to wild swings. Now had the NSE been up 10-12% last year, then jubilee would have relied on the bonus bonanza for the stock to be up 25%. Because, if you ignore the changes in portfolio market at market, jubilee would be in a loss position of -2,224,502,000. Yes, thats true. But the unrealized gains in the investment portfolio market at market show a total of 3,782,400,000. Note that in the previous -2,224,502,000, i had included share of results of associates after income tax, meaning that if i were to ignore it too, the loss position would be enormous. At current prices, investors are bidding it at 2.2x book. This makes it extremely overvalued, especially when you weigh it against returns of other stocks in similar segments. Now if your playing it for the bonus bonanza, well and good. But if your allocating capital, now wouldn't be the time to touch this honey. The ignorance about insurance companies operation is bigger than I thought..  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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Just received my Notice of JHL AGM. One of the item is a resolution to replace PricewaterhouseCoopers with KPMG as auditors. Is this routine or there is something amiss/afoot?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Gordon Gekko wrote:Just received my Notice of JHL AGM. One of the item is a resolution to replace PricewaterhouseCoopers with KPMG as auditors. Is this routine or there is something amiss/afoot? routine... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,356 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:Gordon Gekko wrote:Just received my Notice of JHL AGM. One of the item is a resolution to replace PricewaterhouseCoopers with KPMG as auditors. Is this routine or there is something amiss/afoot? routine... Good governance dictates changing auditors every 3 years... Jubilee has done that for many, many years. A new auditor may find something the prior one overlooked. Or may have new ideas, etc... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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Jubilee Holdings results FY2010 profit jumps 84 pct
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