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KenolKobil, KPLC or KCB?
qw25041985
#91 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 9:54:47 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
So can we revisit KCB hitting 60 bob this year?


WOW ! thats tooooooo optimistic though i cannot rule out a forty something by years end if the same growth pace is maintained..
You shld also note that this stock is very very liquid and moving such a stock takes allot of time ..
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
mwanahisa
#92 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 1:00:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
mwanahisa wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I expect 30-40% higher PAT


@VVS this is rather optimistic


I am with g267 on this. If history is any guide, KPLC has only been able to increase profits substantially from changes in tariffs not the gradual increase in customer connections. I am ignoring the period when they were coming back from the dead. My expectation would be between 10% -20% growth in PAT.


I have just seen the KPLC results and at 18.6% growth in PAT this has come in within the range I predicted. For a utility this is not bad but certainly nothing much to write home about considering the way the Financials are shooting the lights out!
VituVingiSana
#93 Posted : Friday, February 25, 2011 1:24:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I expect 30-40% higher PAT


@VVS this is rather optimistic


I am with g267 on this. If history is any guide, KPLC has only been able to increase profits substantially from changes in tariffs not the gradual increase in customer connections. I am ignoring the period when they were coming back from the dead. My expectation would be between 10% -20% growth in PAT.


I have just seen the KPLC results and at 18.6% growth in PAT this has come in within the range I predicted. For a utility this is not bad but certainly nothing much to write home about considering the way the Financials are shooting the lights out!
Am I disappointed? YES... Sigh... 2H is expected to be better if they can get the supply...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#94 Posted : Friday, April 01, 2011 1:25:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
We can now see that KCB appears to have been (is) the clear winner of the three stocks. I continue to place my faith in the lion, although I have changed my stance on KK following the release of results and the outlook statement. I am no longer buying KCB but I have been adding on to my position in KK. As for KPLC I have only gone in for some speculative pickings which I have since sold. However, I will be a buyer, should it get back to the 20 level, but again purely for speculation.

mwanahisa wrote:
With the results KCB has released, I am happy to have added onto KCB making it the largest financial stock in my portfolio. What's even more interesting is that these results point to the fact that KCB is quite capable of increasing its EPS to Kshs 5 within the next 2-3 years given the inefficiences that are still so apparent. Can you imagine where that will take the KCB price to?

If BBK can make 10.8 billion PBT with a balance sheet of 172 B, it should be possible for KCB to make over 15 billion with its 251 B.

BTW, I also hold KK but have not added any for a while. I sold off all my Kshs 19.50 KPLC rights a while ago and walked away with 20% gains. I am not convinced that KPLC will move much until the rights story becomes a distant memory just like happened with KCB. There is always the possibility that KK will surprise us BIG one of these fine days, but with the oil price moving all over the place, the uncertainty on this is higher. This leaves me with the conclusion that if I had to choose just one of the 3, I would stick with KCB.

earthvoice
#95 Posted : Friday, April 01, 2011 2:49:35 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/29/2011
Posts: 257
mwanahisa wrote:
We can now see that KCB appears to be the clear winner of the three stocks...


Agreed!!!
"All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
mlennyma
#96 Posted : Friday, April 01, 2011 3:30:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Not really,every nugu has its day to shout.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mwanahisa
#97 Posted : Friday, April 01, 2011 4:06:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@mlennyma, I should have added that KCB is the winner, so far. Barring i)political noises/Ocampo 6 case fallout worsening; ii)inflation continuing to rise and iii)drought intensifying; my short term target, post Q1 results announcement still remains a trailing PE of 10. I will however not be surprised if it is not attained, due to current market sentiment.
mwanahisa
#98 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 1:50:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
And the story continues. Very significantly, KCB has traded above Kshs 25. This is the price at which their second last rights issue was done at, some years back. I am sure some technical analysts may have something to say about this, assuming it closes at this price. My hunch is that it is very significant. But what do I know?

BTW, anyone who bought the rights in August last year has now made over 40% in this "bear market".
the deal
#99 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 2:05:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Mwanahisa what bear? there,s no bear only with QW..LOL..2011 is my year...
mwanahisa
#100 Posted : Monday, April 04, 2011 2:58:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
the deal wrote:
@Mwanahisa what bear? there,s no bear only with QW..LOL..2011 is my year...


To be fair to QW, I daresay he has not been the only one talking of a bear market. Even I have become a lot more cautious. I changed my stance to have around 20% of my portfolio in cash. I drew down on that quite a bit in the last two weeks, but I will soon be replenishing the position.
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