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Telecoms bubble?
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Monday, October 25, 2010 4:30:22 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
@djinn - Since the price cuts I have upped my use of data. I buy Safaricom Bundle for 'fast' use + 990/week from Orange... Slower...

Sometimes, I will even jump onto free wifi at Dormans or Java...

Communications is the biggest beneficiary as 'voice' is carried as data over these cables... I am not certain but it would not surprise me that the 3/- calls to India/USA/China are carried through undersea cables... Well, part of the way...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Djinn
#12 Posted : Monday, October 25, 2010 4:48:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
VituVingiSana wrote:
@djinn - Since the price cuts I have upped my use of data. I buy Safaricom Bundle for 'fast' use + 990/week from Orange... Slower...

Sometimes, I will even jump onto free wifi at Dormans or Java...

Communications is the biggest beneficiary as 'voice' is carried as data over these cables... I am not certain but it would not surprise me that the 3/- calls to India/USA/China are carried through undersea cables... Well, part of the way...


Absolutely true abt the 3 bob calls - and its sad that Uganda are dragging their feet (rather mired in some scandal relating to their terrestrial fibre - KDN has gone up to tororo and Telkom up to Malaba - but no corresponding pipe to connect to on the other side - so when you call Kampala your call goes through satellite (or microwave) - thus it costs more.


Lets look at this another way...if Safaricom were to post the same VOICE revenues in 2011...given the prices are now HALVED - they would have to double their subscriber base from abt 14m to 28m....with Zain, Yu and Orange focusing on rural areas...its very unlikely that SCOM can see 100% growth in subscribers in one year. Voice still accounts for abt 75-80% of revenues (I guess). So the next cash cow (rather calf) is data - this is a meal no one really knows how to serve but imagines everyone would like to eat.

Continued growth of mobile money may help mitigate losses to voice but there is only so far we can go with that. Only so far.

BTW has anyone used m-kesho yet?



Djinn
#13 Posted : Wednesday, March 30, 2011 3:41:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
So, looking at the two main threads dominating the Stocks section under "investor" - has the bubble burst?

Some are seeing the forest for the trees (Zuku - content and nit just the pipes). Some are content to be part of the ecosystem (Jamii) while others will spend millions trying to flog a dead horse (3G, Wimax, fibre upgrades, etc) - data is the way...but not merely the pipes...people don;t just want roads...but a place to go...some people do not want buses 3/4G), they are happy with motorbikes (gprs/USSD). So, its a minefield - on one hand if you do not place bets properly on data, you lose. if you place too much faith on data (and upgrade/invest), your ROI period is like a life sentence....

If you have obligations to investors... Eh?
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