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Bargains to buy from tomorrow???
mwanahisa
#181 Posted : Wednesday, March 23, 2011 5:08:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Kinyama(What a Name!),

Let me take a shot at answering your questions and put myself in the firing line while at it.

1. If you are risk tolerance is average or lower, and you are NOT a speculator, wait for KK's results to be released and then wait for another week before you DECIDE whether to buy. Given current market conditions, chances are that the price will not go up with the results announcement. If on the other hand, you have a high risk tolerance, you can go ahead and buy. KK is fairly cheap even with a break-even H2. (BTW, I am in KK but for the long term!)

2. CFC Stanbic is NOT worth buying at the current price. I would rather buy it after the demerger. Earnings for the bank are lower than those for banks with smaller balance sheets i.e. DTB, NIC, I&M etc. After the demerger, it is possible for it to trade at a PE of 10 which would bring down its price to the 50s range. CFCIH (the Insurance Holding Co.) on the other hand should not trade above Kshs 10 given its EPS of 0.54. Actually, 10 would be a stretch. CONCLUSION. Wait!!!!
the deal
#182 Posted : Wednesday, March 23, 2011 5:10:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I think KK is announcing in the first week of April.
Evolve
#183 Posted : Wednesday, March 23, 2011 5:31:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 96
@Mwanahisa, I beg to differ with you on CFC Stanbic. The EPS of Kshs 5.86 is for the CFC Stanbic Holding which is being demerged into CFC Stanbic Holding (CSH) and CFC Insurance Holding (CFCIH). With the demerger the EPS for the CSH will not be Kshs 5.86 but will be much higher and based on 2011 earnings it is Kshs 12.1 which means that on a PE of 10 the share should trade at above Kshs 100. On the other hand, the EPS for CFCIH is currently Kshs 0.5 and the price for the CFCIH may not go beyond Kshs 5 based on a PE of 10.
mwanahisa
#184 Posted : Wednesday, March 23, 2011 5:45:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Evolve wrote:
@Mwanahisa, I beg to differ with you on CFC Stanbic. The EPS of Kshs 5.86 is for the CFC Stanbic Holding which is being demerged into CFC Stanbic Holding (CSH) and CFC Insurance Holding (CFCIH). With the demerger the EPS for the CSH will not be Kshs 5.86 but will be much higher and based on 2011 earnings it is Kshs 12.1 which means that on a PE of 10 the share should trade at above Kshs 100. On the other hand, the EPS for CFCIH is currently Kshs 0.5 and the price for the CFCIH may not go beyond Kshs 5 based on a PE of 10.


@Evolve, there is no way that the EPS for the share(s) you hold in CFC Stanbic Bank is Kshs 12.1.

HINT: CFC Stanbic Bank is not listed on the NSE. It is CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd which is listed. The latter owns the former and the EPS for the former gets diluted as it is consolidated into CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd.

I can now see why the share price of the CFC Stanbic Holdings is not falling as I expected. Folks do not quite understand the intricacies. If I held the share, I would sell now before everyone cottons onto the fact that the EPS for both is NO more than 5.86. Surely, the sum of the parts is not greater than the whole.
the deal
#185 Posted : Wednesday, March 23, 2011 6:20:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Now singing "its only a loss if you sell" wooi Standard Group is making me go bald at a verry young age....this bear is for real.Sad Sad Sad
Gadaffi
#186 Posted : Wednesday, March 23, 2011 7:13:58 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/13/2011
Posts: 284
Location: Nairobi
kinyama wrote:
Its been two weeks since I joined wazua. I must say its been very informative.

I have 2 question to the forum;

1. Kenol Kobil- to buy or to wait.Are we likely to see the price going heading further south considering there are about to release the year end results?

2.CFC stanbic bank;whats your take to hold or to buy.Would Kshs.75 be a reality or just a dream?

Thank you.

dear fellow investor, kindly go thro this thread n other related ones n then u will hv ur answer, however, to hold will b my advise.
dislaimer:this is jus my personal advise, u decide
VituVingiSana
#187 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2011 3:14:49 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,350
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa - CFC Stanbic is Kenya's worst performing bank [among the largest 10 banks] on ROE or ROA...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
erifloss
#188 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2011 8:31:30 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
Evolve wrote:
@Mwanahisa, I beg to differ with you on CFC Stanbic. The EPS of Kshs 5.86 is for the CFC Stanbic Holding which is being demerged into CFC Stanbic Holding (CSH) and CFC Insurance Holding (CFCIH). With the demerger the EPS for the CSH will not be Kshs 5.86 but will be much higher and based on 2011 earnings it is Kshs 12.1 which means that on a PE of 10 the share should trade at above Kshs 100. On the other hand, the EPS for CFCIH is currently Kshs 0.5 and the price for the CFCIH may not go beyond Kshs 5 based on a PE of 10.


@Evolve, there is no way that the EPS for the share(s) you hold in CFC Stanbic Bank is Kshs 12.1.

HINT: CFC Stanbic Bank is not listed on the NSE. It is CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd which is listed. The latter owns the former and the EPS for the former gets diluted as it is consolidated into CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd.

I can now see why the share price of the CFC Stanbic Holdings is not falling as I expected. Folks do not quite understand the intricacies. If I held the share, I would sell now before everyone cottons onto the fact that the EPS for both is NO more than 5.86. Surely, the sum of the parts is not greater than the whole.

@Mwanahisa, you are a little bit wrong coz CSH is going to have the investments, financial services & banking arm while CSIH is going to have Cfc life & Heritage. I tend to agree with evolve reason being if you have ever been through an accounts consolidation process:
1. The parent normally takes up full expenses & revenue of the subsidiary through their income statement & only shows the minority interest through the Balance sheet. With high expenditure, the insurance biz absorbed most of the banks gains. Check.
2. Most holding co.s show earnings attributable to equity holders mostly on other disclosures or just after the income statement. Check CSH's
3. Though the eps attributable to equity holders in CSH after the demerger might be less than 12 but it is surely more than 6 & i'm saying this on the assumption that they don't own 100% of the bank coz if they do then i'm seeing an eps of over 10 & not 12 only coz of the holding co.s expenses.

IMHO current prices for CSH after the demerger is low but for CSIH at an introduction price of 6.15 is expensive.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
ecstacy
#189 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2011 8:34:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
the deal wrote:
Now singing "its only a loss if you sell" wooi Standard Group is making me go bald at a verry young age....this bear is for real.Sad Sad Sad


hehe! pole boss. my KQ is giving me the 2008 feeling on Equity smile Just holding.
Evolve
#190 Posted : Thursday, March 24, 2011 8:59:18 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 96
@Mwanahisa - You are spot on on the EPS for the Bank but you fail to separate the two entities - CSH and CFCIH. Try doing a consolidation for CSH and see what you get.THis will guide you on what you expect. The EPS of 5.86 is for the composite (Banking + Insurance). Insurance is loss making and this is what has brought down the performance of the Group.
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