mwanahisa wrote:Evolve wrote:@Mwanahisa, I beg to differ with you on CFC Stanbic. The EPS of Kshs 5.86 is for the CFC Stanbic Holding which is being demerged into CFC Stanbic Holding (CSH) and CFC Insurance Holding (CFCIH). With the demerger the EPS for the CSH will not be Kshs 5.86 but will be much higher and based on 2011 earnings it is Kshs 12.1 which means that on a PE of 10 the share should trade at above Kshs 100. On the other hand, the EPS for CFCIH is currently Kshs 0.5 and the price for the CFCIH may not go beyond Kshs 5 based on a PE of 10.
@Evolve, there is
no way that the EPS
for the share(s) you hold in CFC Stanbic Bank is Kshs 12.1.
HINT: CFC Stanbic Bank is not listed on the NSE. It is CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd which is listed. The latter owns the former and the EPS for the former gets diluted as it is consolidated into CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd.
I can now see why the share price of the CFC Stanbic Holdings is not falling as I expected. Folks do not quite understand the intricacies. If I held the share, I would sell now before everyone cottons onto the fact that the EPS for both is NO more than 5.86. Surely, the sum of the parts is not greater than the whole.
@Mwanahisa, you are a little bit wrong coz CSH is going to have the investments, financial services & banking arm while CSIH is going to have Cfc life & Heritage. I tend to agree with evolve reason being if you have ever been through an accounts consolidation process:
1. The parent normally takes up full expenses & revenue of the subsidiary through their income statement & only shows the minority interest through the Balance sheet. With high expenditure, the insurance biz absorbed most of the banks gains. Check.
2. Most holding co.s show earnings attributable to equity holders mostly on other disclosures or just after the income statement. Check CSH's
3. Though the eps attributable to equity holders in CSH after the demerger might be less than 12 but it is surely more than 6 & i'm saying this on the assumption that they don't own 100% of the bank coz if they do then i'm seeing an eps of over 10 & not 12 only coz of the holding co.s expenses.
IMHO current prices for CSH after the demerger is low but for CSIH at an introduction price of 6.15 is expensive.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary