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US diplomats query the accuracy of Kenyan opinion polls in 2007
Rank: Member Joined: 9/13/2007 Posts: 44
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American diplomats doubted the accuracy of opinion poll projections in 2007 giving ODM leader Raila Odinga a wide lead in the presidential race and feared the polls could fuel tension in the country. A cable sent to Washington in mid November 2007 said the poll findings diverged from the embassy’s own analysis which indicated a close race between Mr Odinga and President Kibaki. The cable, one of thousands of documents released by anti-secrecy website WikiLeaks, may raise new questions about the methodology employed by opinion pollsters in the country. The view of the US diplomats was that the sampling formula the opinion poll firms were using was faulty. http://kenyauptodate.blo...ccuracy-of-opinion.html
http://www.nation.co.ke/...98/-/645ahf/-/index.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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The accurate polling methodology showed only 1 percentage point between the incumbent and the ODM challenger Raila Odinga. How do you carry out AND ANNOUNCE as valid opinion poll results which do not care whether the respondent actually has a voters card???? the number of registered voters and possible voter turnout carries the day... In retrospect it is very sad that 1,300 people lost their lives and hundreds of thousands were rendered homeless in a situation where the loser as announced could actually have just lost!
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Wazua
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US diplomats query the accuracy of Kenyan opinion polls in 2007
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