EURGBP STOPPED @0.8561 +34PIPS

STILL SHORT NZDUSD & AUDCAD LONG EURAUD

WAITING TO GO LONG EURCAD &EURGBP

Short on USD/JPY 82.62, SL 82.62, Closely trailing the trade as I consider it risky. If im lucky i might escape with 100 pips.

SL hit (+27 pips)

Long on AUD/JPY @ 82.70 SL 82.35, TP 82.95.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD dropped to as low as 1.5976 last week but recovered ahead of 1.5962 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.5343 to 1.6343 at 1.5961). Break of 1.6076 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is formed and turned intraday bias neutral. On the upside, note that break of 1.6343 is needed to confirm rally resumption or we'll stay neutral and expect more consolidations. On the downside, break of 1.5962 cluster support will confirm that whole rise form 1.5343 is finished and deeper decline should be seen to trend line support (now at 1.5715). Also, note that sustained trading below the mentioned trend line will indicate that whole rally from 1.4230 is completed and should bring deeper decline through 1.5343 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135267/

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD rebounded after dipping to 1.3751 last week. The break of near term trend line support was brief and EUR/USD is back trading above this support, thus retaining bullish outlook. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for a test on 1.4035 resistance first. Break of 1.4035 will confirm rally resumption for 1.4281 key resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 1.3751 support will now confirm that EUR/USD has at least made a short term top and should turn outlook bearish for 1.3427 support and below.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135269/

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD managed to hold on to 55 days EMA again last week despite a brief break and thus, retained the mildly bullish outlook. As noted before, even though upside momentum is clearly seen diminishing with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Above 1.0200 resistance will bring up trend resumption to another high above 1.0254. However, break of 0.9943 support will favor the case that AUD/USD has topped out and will bring deeper fall through 0.9803 support.
In the bigger picture, note that bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD. Reversal should be imminent even if 1.0254 is not yet the major top. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside break of 0.9803 support will now be an early signal of medium term reversal and will turn focus to 0.9536 support for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135265/

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY reversed and fell sharply after edging higher to 83.28. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 81.57 support first. Break will target 80.93 support next. Note that break of 80.93 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption. On the upside, above 82.38 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and indicate that sideway consolidation from 80.29 is still in progress. In any case, we'd expect upside to be limited by 83.96 resistance as the consolidation continues.
In the bigger picture, with 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet and the longer term down trend in USD/JPY is possibly still in progress for another test on 79.75 (1995 low). Decisive break of 79.75 will target 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 84.49 at 75.41 next. On the upside, though, sustained break of 85.92 cluster resistance will indicate that a medium term bottom is at least formed and stronger rebound should be seen through 90 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135268/

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.9201 continued last week. Initial bias remains neutral and more sideway trading might be seen. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9774 to 0.9201 at 0.9420 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.9201 will confirm fall resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.0065 to 0.9300 from 0.9774 at 0.9009, which coincides with major medium term target.
In the bigger picture, long term decline from 2010 high of 1.1729 is still in progress. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.

http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135266/

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF dipped to as low as 1.2826 last week but lacked follow through selling and recovered again. Near term outlook remains mixed and we'll turn neutral again. On the downside, break of 1.2704 support will reaffirm the case that corrective rise from 1.2401 has completed at 1.3203 already and will bring deeper fall to 1.2401 and below. On the upside above 1.3038 will in turn suggest that fall from 1.3203 was a correction and would bring stronger rally through 1.3203 high eventually.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135263/

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY's consolidation from 135.48 extended further last week and dipped to as low as 130.85. Initial bias remains on the downside for further decline. But we'd still expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 125.48 to 135.48 at 129.30 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 132.52 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 135.48. However, sustained break of 129.30 fibonacci level will dampen this view and turn focus back to 125.48 low instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 118.81 are treated as consolidation in the larger down trend from 251.09, with first leg finished at 163.05. Choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as the second leg and should be finished at 125.48 already. The third leg of consolidations should have started at 125.48 and should now target 163.05 and above. Though cluster resistance at 38.2% retracement of 251.09 to 118.81 at 169.34 and 100% projection of 118.81 to 163.05 from 125.48 at 169.72 should limit upside and bring reversal. However, considering that GBP/JPY is facing strong resistance from 55 week EMA, deeper decline and sustained trading below 130 psychological level will dampen this view and indicate that choppy fall from 163.05 is still in progress for another low below 125.48 before completion.

http://www.actionforex.com/acti...-outlook-20110312135260/

The Week Ahead
Highlights

EU competitiveness pact may disappoint
Fallout from Japanese earthquake
Spain gets a wakeup call
Central banks expected to maintain policy rates
A mixed picture in China, but further tightening is still needed

Key data and events to watch next week

EU competitiveness pact may disappoint

Without the final details in hand as of late Friday afternoon, we can't be sure of the ultimate reaction, but price moves ahead of the release of the EU pact suggest markets are going to be underwhelmed. The draft of the pact suggested that no concrete rules will be established and that individual governments will operate on a 'best efforts' basis to rein in debts and deficits and stimulate growth. The only enforcement mechanism will be discussions between member states. If the final pact follows these outlines, markets are more likely, in our view, to voice disapproval. Indeed, in the run-up to Friday's summit, peripheral-EU bond spreads widened to near crisis peaks from last year, suggesting many still expect defaults and restructurings to follow. Alongside threats to the global recovery emanating from MENA and China, and now Japan, we think the downside for the Euro is vulnerable and we will view a break below the 1.3730/50 daily Kijun line/weekly low/21-day mov. avg. as an indication of a Euro likely headed back toward 1.3500/50 in the near-term. Should the pact contain more disciplined measures, then we would expect to see some further recovery in the single currency, but think it should remain below 1.4000, as growing risk aversion limits the upside.

Fallout from Japanese earthquake

The massive earthquake and tsunami in Japan on Friday undermined risk sentiment further and this led to JPY-strength as JPY-shorts were rapidly covered. There has been talk of Japanese repatriation of funds to cover insurance costs, but we think this is likely overstated and that risk aversion is the better explanation. The tragedy there is still unfolding, with additional earthquakes registering through Friday night, and no estimates of damage costs are available at the moment. However, given the largely agricultural nature of the affected region, we don't think the impact to Japanese GDP will be especially severe, but that's not saying much as Japanese growth already turned negative in 4Q. While we think the near-term pressure will remain on USD/JPY, we don't think the pair will test the pivotal 80.00 level and seems most likely to find a base in the 80.50/81.50 area in coming weeks. We think the MOF will seek to avoid a further surge in the JPY which would add fresh burdens to the Japanese recovery. The BOJ is meeting at the start of next week and may announce emergency measures such as additional asset purchases, which could see the JPY weaken sooner. The government will also likely soon pursue a supplementary budget to pay for clean-up and reconstruction, and this may revive fears over the size of Japan's debt burdens and also cause the JPY to weaken.

Spain gets a wakeup call

There are growing signs that the market is losing patience with the EU authorities who have failed to come up with a credible, long-term solution to the region's sovereign debt crisis. As EU leaders gathered for a summit in Brussels at the end of last week, the markets had low expectations that an effective solution would be found. Bond yields spiked to euro-era records for Ireland and Portugal; Spain and Italy were not immune either as the risk premium to hold their government debt also increased.

The downgrade of Spain's sovereign credit rating by Moody's to Aa2 from Aa1 at the end of last week focused the markets' attention back on Europe's troubled banking sector. A third round of bank stress tests is scheduled to be conducted in the next few months. On 18th March the EU authorities will publish the macro economic scenarios and the sample of banks that will undergo the tests. This is key for the market as it will determine whether the tests are strong enough to really give a true snap shot of the bad debts and recapitalization needs of some of Europe's most troubled lenders, particularly the Spanish Caja banks. More details will follow in April when the stress test methodology is disclosed and then in June when we finally get the results.

There is no doubt that the EU authorities have made a hash of dealing with their financial problems. It has taken three rounds of stress tests to try and make sense of the bad debts still swimming in Europe's financial system.

Investors will only be happy once they know exactly how bad the problems are. When the US published devastating results of their bank stress tests in 2009 it was greeted warmly by the markets and led to a stock market rally. Investors will only be happy to hold assets from Europe's periphery if they can accurately calculate the risk of doing so. Right now they are guessing that things are worse than the authorities are saying, hence bond yields are rising to unsustainable levels. If the truth was out there then bond yields may even start to moderate. Until the full extent of the debt crisis is known there can be no remedy. If the results of the tests are published in June, then a solution is unlikely to be found until the end of the year.

By that time Portugal is most likely to have applied for bailout funds, while Spain just about avoids doing so. But there is a lot of pressure on the larger of the two Iberian nations. Although debt issuance in 2011 is only about 80 per cent of what it was in 2010, Spain still has to tap the markets for an enormous EUR600bn or more for the rest of this year. Doing so at the same time as the bank stress tests are taking place could test investors' patience. If Spain's banks require significantly more capital than the EUR 20bn the Spanish authorities have disclosed then its debt could be significantly harder to sell to foreign investors who have already been cutting back on their exposure to the weaker Eurozone states.

The euro has brushed off sovereign debt woes in the past, but they are increasingly weighing on the single currency. It fell back to the 1.3800 level versus the dollar at the end of last week, and the key 1.4000 resistance level is unlikely to be broached for the time being. Technically EURUSD is still in an uptrend above 1.3535 - the top of the Ichimoku cloud, but it has fallen sharply and if we don't get a bounce somewhere between 1.3600 and 1.3700 then we could see a sharper decline over the coming months, especially versus the greenback.

Central banks expected to maintain policy rates

Several central banks will meet to determine policy in the week ahead. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday March 15, the Norges Bank will meet on Wednesday March 16, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to meet on Thursday. All of these banks are expected to keep policy rates on hold with the Norges Bank the most likely to surprise with a hike, however we do not anticipate a move on rates.

In the U.S., the Fed has maintained the language that the bank will keep rates low for an 'extended period' and the large scale asset purchase program of $600B through June has a 'high hurdle' before altering the plan. While the unemployment rate has dropped slightly, labor data suggests that the recovery may not yet be self-sustaining. Additionally, the CPI has ticked upwards slightly but remains at comfortable levels last released at 1.6% YoY on the headline reading and 1.0% YoY for the core measure. This evidence suggests no change in policy at the Tuesday meeting.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), whose primary mandate is to ensure price stability which it defines as inflation below 2% is likely to maintain rates at 0.25%. Recent data indicates February CPI at +0.4% and a drop in the unemployment rate from January's 3.8% to 3.6% in February. SNB President Philipp Hildebrand recently noted that the strong franc lowers inflationary pressures in the near term however the bank noted the need to fight inflation over the medium and longer term as it sees its price stability threshold being breached in 2013.

The Norges Bank has signaled that it will resume tightening by the middle of 2011. The bank last raised rates in May and has provided guidance through the end of 2014 and expects its benchmark rate to average 2.25% this year and 3.25% next year. This indicates an expected 25bps hike each quarter from June 2011 until the end of 2014. Thursday's release of February CPI showed a slowing to +1.2% from the prior month's +2.0% which is supportive of no change in policy at the upcoming meeting.

A mixed picture in China, but further tightening is still needed

The past week of data released out of China has confounded many market participants. On one hand the February data showed elevated risks to inflation - Feb. PPI was 7.2% vs. expected 7.0% yoy and Feb. CPI was 4.9% vs. expected 4.8% yoy, however on the other Feb. Retail sales came in much weaker at 15.8% yoy and Feb. Trade balance turned negative for the first time in 11 months coming in at -7.31B vs. expectations of +4.9B. Finally it appears their efforts to slow the rapid rise in real estate is beginning to have knock-on effects, however a considerable amount of this may also be attributed to a robust Chinese new year.

In the end, China still has been unable to control the more pressing issue, inflation. While food prices remain the main driver of CPI (which have somewhat moderated of late), higher energy and commodity prices continue to remain the underlying concerns to PPI. Moreover, we've seen that commodity pricing pressures tend to lead Chinese PPI, and with crude oil and industrial metals near their respective highs, rising inflation looks like it's a problem unlikely to go away anytime soon. Therefore, we believe the PBoC will continue to remain active over the coming weeks/months, with our central case looking for two further interest rate hikes, in sum 50bps, before the end of June. We also envision additional RRR hikes in order to further withdrawal liquidity from their financial system.

As China tightens to manage liquidity and control inflation, we may see periodic setbacks in risk sentiment as well as dips in commodity prices and the prices of commodity linked currencies (AUD, CAD, and ZAR), however we believe such pullbacks are likely to be relatively short lived and should be viewed as potential buying opportunities.


Key data and events to watch next week

United States: Tuesday- March Empire Manufacturing, Feb. Import Price Index, Jan. Total Net Tic Flows, March, NAHB Housing Market Index, FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday- MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. Housing Permits, Feb. Building Permits, Feb. Producer Price Index, Q4 Current Account Thursday- Consumer Price Index, Weekly Jobless Claims, Feb. Industrial Production, Feb. Capacity Utilization, Feb. Leading Indicators, March Philadelphia Fed

Eurozone: Monday- Jan. EZ Industrial Production Tuesday- EZ Employment 4Q, EZ March ZEW Economic Sentiment, German March ZEW Surveys (Current Situation & Econ. Sentiment), EU Finance Ministers meet in Brussels Wednesday- EZ 4Q Feb CPI Thursday- EZ Jan. Construction Output Friday- EZ Jan. Current Account, Trade Balance, German Feb. PPI

United Kingdom: Tuesday- DCLG Jan. House Prices Wednesday - Feb. Claimant Count Change, Jan. Avg. Weekly Earnings, Jan ILO Unemployment Rate, Thursday - Feb. Nationwide Consumer Confidence

Japan: Monday- Jan. F Industrial Production, Jan. F Capacity Utilization, Feb. Consumer Confidence, Tuesday- BOJ Target Rate, Feb. F Machine Tool Orders, 1Q BSI Large All Industry, 1Q BSI Large Manufacturing, Wednesday- Feb. Tokyo Condominium, Jan. Tertiary Industry Index Thursday- BOJ Feb.16-17 Board Minutes Friday- Jan. F Coincident & Leading Index.

Canada: Monday- 4Q Capacity Utilization Rate Tuesday- 4Q Labor Productivity Rate Wednesday- Jan. Manufacturing Sales Thursday Jan. Int'l Securities Transactions, Jan. Wholesale Sales, Feb. Consumer Price Index, Feb. Bank Canada CPI Core

Australia & New Zealand: Monday- RBA March Minutes, Feb. New Motor Vehicle Sales, NZ REINZ House Sales (3/14-16) Tuesday Jan. Westpac Leading Index, 4Q Dwelling Starts Thursday: RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions, NZ 1Q Westpac Consumer Confidence

China: March 13-18- Feb. Actual FDI, March 13-15 Feb. New Yuan Loans, Feb. Money Supply (M0,M1,M2) Tuesday- Conference Board China January Leading Economic Index

Author: forex.com

LONG EURAUD@ 1.3819

eurgbp was exited +53pips , trailing euraud, eurcad pairs doing great +17 & +55 pips respectively

EURAUD EXITED@ 1.3975 +136PIPS

EURCAD EXITED @ 1.3681 +133PIPS

BEAUTIFUL TRADES RIGHT THERE,

EURGBP SHORT STILL ON

EURUSD WAS EXITED@ 1.3863 GUD +64PIPS,

ENTERED LONG EURGBP@0.8688