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Why the NSE Index is taking a continuous tumble
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mufasa
#31 Posted : Sunday, March 06, 2011 5:58:46 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 238
dave.kim wrote:
most foreign investors are exiting the market and am speculating that more investors will exit the towards year end an wait it out upto 2013......My views


Boss!!, you're giving politics too much credit here. There are many counters that are not politically inclined e.g. BBK, others are now regional stocks.
While its true that 2012 politics is gonna affect the NSE, the effect will be very mild. Why? In 2007/08 - there was also a global financial meltdown. Kenya's infrastructure has grown rapidly, s.sudan is a new country, uganda has discovered oil (arabs fighting, hence alternate mkt), western TZ and Easteern congo are opening up, ea community.... Etc. By 2013 - NSE could be @ 5,000points (i'm probably being modest here).
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Tommy
#32 Posted : Sunday, March 06, 2011 9:19:06 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/9/2010
Posts: 894
Location: Nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
The possibility of the grand coalition crumbling is imminent due to the wrangles in ODM.I would say political uncertainty is one reason why the index is not heading north

this grand coalition will not collapse, these mpigs have their salaries commited on loans and mortgages to the extent that none of them will be willing to loose that income. to me this are just normal political temperatures in the runup to election which we r used to.
Don't wait for the Last Judgment. It happens every day. ~Albert Camus, The Fall, 1956
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Cde Monomotapa
#33 Posted : Sunday, March 06, 2011 2:08:09 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Legally speaking the consequences of an "ODM Pull out" is that by-elections SHALL follow and a de-campd MP stands undr his/her new party. Now, logically, which MP would be so nuts to go back Debe earlier? None..AUGUST 2012 isn't too far away so they'd rather collect their salaries. Moreover, the politics this time round will be so different thanx to current Const.as power will be diffused even being an MP won't be soo prestigious, a less powerful prezz e.t.c. In conclusion, the current noise is reservd for politicians & not me. Me as an investor/mwananchi i'm more concernd about when it is going to rain & other economic devt.i.e EAC growth.please note that all other EAC countries (latest being UG) are through with elections so its back to business. KCB,SCAN,COOP,EBL e.t.c recc.picks
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, March 06, 2011 3:07 PM | Reason: :-P
Jamani
#34 Posted : Sunday, March 06, 2011 3:08:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Legally speaking the consequences of an "ODM Pull out" is that by-elections should follow and a de-campd stands undr his/her new party. Now, logically, which MP would be so nuts to go back Debe? None..AUGUST 2012 isn't too far away so they'd rather collect their salaries. Moreover, the politics this time round will be so different thanx to current Const.as power will be diffused even being an MP won't be soo prestigious, a less powerful prezz e.t.c. In conclusion, the current noise is reservd for politicians & not me. Me as an investor/mwananchi i'm more concernd about when it is going to rain & other economic devt.i.e EAC growth.please note that all other EAC countries (latest being UG) are through with elections so its back to business. KCB,SCAN,COOP,EBL e.t.c recc.picks


While I agree with you to some extent, I tend to think confusion of the new constitution or politicians acting dump to score on others and tension with fear of who will be where are even worse these leads to serious investors holding back, hence low trades.....
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Cde Monomotapa
#35 Posted : Sunday, March 06, 2011 8:24:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@jamani, i'm actually welcoming the confusion as i've been monitoring the current noise and happy that politicians r tearing each other apart w/o involving mwananchi unlike in 07. These guys r also smart they know blantant tribal politics will not see them through this time round (esp.with ICC hanging around.have U seen how Taylor looks so docile...) so they will morph into "nationalists" coz enyewe mwananchi remembrs that we all sufferd post election regardless of affiliation n on top of that they sold the very maize we so needed @ the time. If there was debe kesho I will vote MARTHA KARUA for prezz! These other fellows have messed us up enough n for too long!
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, March 06, 2011 8:32 PM | Reason: :-P
Wa_ithaka
#36 Posted : Monday, March 07, 2011 9:35:10 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
I think the forthcoming drought will also play havoc with the market and the economy.
Siasa will hopefully calm down once ICC invites Milosevic et al to the Hague for a chat.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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mufasa
#37 Posted : Tuesday, March 08, 2011 10:44:46 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 238
Drought???
How many points will the NSE loose before it turns around? some counters are now performing worse than during the global financial melt down/PEV.

in early 2006, the NSE lost over 1000points in first half of the year. are we seeing a repeat of that? what triggered the 06' dip?
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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VituVingiSana
#38 Posted : Tuesday, March 08, 2011 10:48:52 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Siasa is worse than drought...

If we did not have the siasa then we could plan to mitigate effects of the drought. Instead of saving the Mau, we are at a deadlock since moi, ruto, etc are using the excuse that farmers in the Mau are kalenjin who should be allowed to stay!

Then we have IDPs. Many of these were hard-working farmers who cannot farm anymore so we lose skills & economic growth.

Wanasiasa wa Kenya ni Bure Kabisa!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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ProverB
#39 Posted : Tuesday, March 08, 2011 11:26:07 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander


There being no further business,..worth doing or commenting on regarding stocks.. smile
..i log off and have quit the market till May!

Be well people.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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the deal
#40 Posted : Tuesday, March 08, 2011 11:31:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
ProverB wrote:


There being no further business,..worth doing or commenting on regarding stocks.. smile
..i log off and have quit the market till May!

Be well people.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly over exposure to banks...all the best in your self imposed exile...
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