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Why the NSE Index is taking a continuous tumble
Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 238
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Here is my 2cents: Since Late last year, the index has continued to tumble despite certain counters showing marginal improvements. Apart from real estate most of the other counters have been very unreliable. Financials have again posted impressive profits but this has not been reflected in the share price. a good example is scbk and BBK. The country is experiencing one the highest inflation rates that we have seen in recent times. CBK's interest rates although low are not helping much. This is because the cost of living is high - food costs are going high so is petrol. hopefully the rains will be coming soon. politically, we are a mess. in conclusion, the bearish mkt will continue into the foreseeable future. Until the rains come,and the local investor has some money to spend in order for them to spark international investors back. Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Bear Market = Opportunity To Accumulate Shares You Fancy GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Time to be liquid to pick those bargains. Was there really a bull market in the first place when the year began? I think the current downturn is attributable to the crises in north africa n middle east countries. Which in turn has caused a myriad of factors, which has caused the downturn. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Speaking of tumbles, has anyone noticed the co-relation of access kenya n cmc's tumble. They have been falling together in the recent weeks. Weird. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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mufasa wrote:Here is my 2cents: Since Late last year, the index has continued to tumble despite certain counters showing marginal improvements. Apart from real estate most of the other counters have been very unreliable. Financials have again posted impressive profits but this has not been reflected in the share price. a good example is scbk and BBK.
The country is experiencing one the highest inflation rates that we have seen in recent times. CBK's interest rates although low are not helping much. This is because the cost of living is high - food costs are going high so is petrol. hopefully the rains will be coming soon. politically, we are a mess. in conclusion, the bearish mkt will continue into the foreseeable future. Until the rains come,and the local investor has some money to spend in order for them to spark international investors back.
Please confirm historical market trend over past 20 years ceteris paribus..wazua stock profiler or your broker can help with this especially ignore one-off indirect historic factors eg..year immediate succeeding election year.. Overall evidence..market picks within feb-march window... slumps to lowest in July-August window.. this applies to stocks where no corporate action such as splits/bonus new issues associate..and ignores ipos ..trend happens every year..without fail.. directly associated with financial releases..that confirm/negate investor market expectations.. That said..current selling..upon confirming results.. and portfolio rebalancing.. common sense.. i think.  ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2010 Posts: 132
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Aguytrying wrote:Speaking of tumbles, has anyone noticed the co-relation of access kenya n cmc's tumble. They have been falling together in the recent weeks. Weird. Interesting scenario, both hitting new lows.the other day I was wondering wether CMC will join neveready and olympia or are these new opportunities worth considering?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 238
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@ProverB: The only constant factor in life is change, so we really can't hold constant all factors. having said that , there is still a lot of merit in what you say especially about stocks where no corporate action is seen. We are in this mkt for the profits, don't ignore the red lights, hold your money and get in at the right time. Most counters are heading for rock bottom - Access, olympia,cmc, SCOM, kq is still a little far away. If you ask me, the tumbling trend will reverse in early April. Reason: Kenya is mainly agricultural and after the rains, we will regain our confidence, middle east chaos notwithstanding Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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mufasa wrote:@ProverB: The only constant factor in life is change, so we really can't hold constant all factors. having said that , there is still a lot of merit in what you say especially about stocks where no corporate action is seen.
We are in this mkt for the profits, don't ignore the red lights, hold your money and get in at the right time. Most counters are heading for rock bottom - Access, olympia,cmc, SCOM, kq is still a little far away. If you ask me, the tumbling trend will reverse in early April. Reason: Kenya is mainly agricultural and after the rains, we will regain our confidence, middle east chaos notwithstanding @mufasa ... my stand...profit taking is much afoot..so actually my buyin now is making someone else profit! ..with a few exceptions of scared retailers selling below cost..out of fear..and they ain't so many.. KQ was at some not so distant past at 20bob..someone bought then..he should have sold earlier..but seeing potential gains eroded now..he's more than willing to sell at 39... maybe..that's just one..same can translate to literally all counters save for Access, Kenya Re Cmc and Eveready...and panafric too.. So..in rearranging my portfolio..am sellin off too.. but won't be buying till in very soonest..( sic) May 2011..spread buy all the way through to late august-early september.. I've noticed some already buying..even since november last year..the Likes of Vituvingi, Hisa, Mwanahisa..of course the QW fellow who insulted me while kq was at 45 and heading lower.. .. and many others.. I'm convinced we have millionaires here..to sustain buying action 4 months in advance and still continue through peaking season and now while profit taking is afoot!!! I salute you people! Eh!  Would you like to wager on the April turn around you have indicated?  ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/5/2009 Posts: 597
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I think the current mkt index drop seen at the NSE is mostly by the profit takers who entered the mkt at some good buys and wants to cash out and already assured of the dividends on the shares whose books have closed. Compared to other mkts NYSE, NASDAQ this is currently the trend. ..On another note do we have cyclical stocks at the NSE? and do their trends hold i.e the sasini, Rea vipingo, kakuzi etc. ..Also does KPLC and Kengen befit defensive stocks as they are majorly utility backed The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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ProverB wrote:mufasa wrote:@ProverB: The only constant factor in life is change, so we really can't hold constant all factors. having said that , there is still a lot of merit in what you say especially about stocks where no corporate action is seen.
We are in this mkt for the profits, don't ignore the red lights, hold your money and get in at the right time. Most counters are heading for rock bottom - Access, olympia,cmc, SCOM, kq is still a little far away. If you ask me, the tumbling trend will reverse in early April. Reason: Kenya is mainly agricultural and after the rains, we will regain our confidence, middle east chaos notwithstanding @mufasa I've noticed some already buying..even since november last year..the Likes of Vituvingi, Hisa, Mwanahisa..of course the QW fellow who insulted me while kq was at 45 and heading lower.. .. and many others.. I'm convinced we have millionaires here..to sustain buying action 4 months in advance and still continue through picking season and now while profit taking is afoot!!! I salute you people! Eh! Would you like to wager on the April turn around you have indicated? I have actually been a NET SELLER over the last few weeks. I SOLD KPLC (after the rights started trading), BBK (after announcement), Car & General (post announcement)and recently Coop Bank and HFCK (this I only completed selling yesterday). On the other hand I bought Equity @ 27.50 and sold immediately after announcement at 29 although I still retain quite a chunk there. I also made a speculative move into Mumias at average of 7.70 which I have now liquidated at a very modest profit. I have also been ACTIVELY BUYING KCB both before and AFTER the announcement. While, I am always in the market, I strive to take advantages of spikes and dips on my favoured counters whenever the opportunity presents itself by selling and then re-entering.I currently have about 20% of my portfolio in cash and I am also watching out for the BARGAINS, of which there are so MANY emerging. I intend to purchase some good dividend plays such as BBK (@65-66 or thereabouts), more KCB and I may even make a play for EA Cables prior to dividend closure if price falls to the Kshs 18 level. The rest will go back into Equity and reentry into HFCK if the price continues falling and a little into my pet stock (Jubilee Ins Holdings). I am also watching KENRE and may buy a few for the heck of it as I believe it is massively undervalued (IT WILL PROBABLY BE UNDERVALUED TILL KINGDOM COME)!!
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Why the NSE Index is taking a continuous tumble
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