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30yr bond at 12%. Any takers?
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kizee1
#21 Posted : Thursday, February 10, 2011 9:47:56 AM
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2012 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
theres also a risk that in 30 years teh country u know as kenya may cease to exist.....


And which tenant will agree to continue paying you rent in this situation? How much will the Kes that you are holding be worth? It is upon you and me to make sure that scenario doesn't occur otherwise no investment will make sense even being a refugee somewhere with $1m.



so you will buy the bond? whats your long terms view on interest rates?
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2012
#22 Posted : Thursday, February 10, 2011 9:55:00 AM
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Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
2012 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
theres also a risk that in 30 years teh country u know as kenya may cease to exist.....


And which tenant will agree to continue paying you rent in this situation? How much will the Kes that you are holding be worth? It is upon you and me to make sure that scenario doesn't occur otherwise no investment will make sense even being a refugee somewhere with $1m.



so you will buy the bond? whats your long terms view on interest rates?


If I had the cash I would. I however don't think it's worth investing less than 2m. I know the biggest fear is inflation but think about it, where would you invest to beat inflation by 100%? Nowhere and we all know that the worst it can get is around 5% so 12.5% is pretty good. Ama?

BBI will solve it :)
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kizee1
#23 Posted : Thursday, February 10, 2011 1:34:49 PM
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Posts: 679
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2012 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
2012 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
theres also a risk that in 30 years teh country u know as kenya may cease to exist.....


And which tenant will agree to continue paying you rent in this situation? How much will the Kes that you are holding be worth? It is upon you and me to make sure that scenario doesn't occur otherwise no investment will make sense even being a refugee somewhere with $1m.



so you will buy the bond? whats your long terms view on interest rates?


If I had the cash I would. I however don't think it's worth investing less than 2m. I know the biggest fear is inflation but think about it, where would you invest to beat inflation by 100%? Nowhere and we all know that the worst it can get is around 5% so 12.5% is pretty good. Ama?


you havent answered my question , i asked u a very direct question...WHAT IS YOUR LONG TERM VIEW ON INTEREST RATES? the highest inflation can get to is 5 %? really?
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MatataMingi
#24 Posted : Thursday, February 10, 2011 7:05:29 PM
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@ Kizee1 & 2012.
Let me give you my thoughts on this .

Interest rates are going UP. And will continue to do so for untill ènd of 2012. After that who knows ?

@ year bond issue 2/2009/2 dated 25/05/09 had a coupon of 8.7505.
But the yield was 10.193%.
Check it if you want to.
Interest rates WILL go up. The Government is Hungry. Elections are are coming soon .
Interest rates WILL go up every week. Mark my word.

No offence meant to anyone who has a different view.

Regards and sleep well.
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Wa_ithaka
#25 Posted : Friday, February 11, 2011 12:12:22 AM
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I think if it was priced at similar level to bank loans, I might think about it. At 12%, its 10% after the taxman has his wicked way with the interest so ou double our money every 10yrs.

I think even growing trees or raising cettle will give you much higher returns.
Wasa ikae.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Monday, February 14, 2011 10:12:03 PM
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The w/tax is 10% of the coupon but that is 1.2% no matter what the yield...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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erifloss
#27 Posted : Tuesday, February 15, 2011 8:22:46 AM
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Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
2012 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
2012 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
theres also a risk that in 30 years teh country u know as kenya may cease to exist.....


And which tenant will agree to continue paying you rent in this situation? How much will the Kes that you are holding be worth? It is upon you and me to make sure that scenario doesn't occur otherwise no investment will make sense even being a refugee somewhere with $1m.



so you will buy the bond? whats your long terms view on interest rates?


If I had the cash I would. I however don't think it's worth investing less than 2m. I know the biggest fear is inflation but think about it, where would you invest to beat inflation by 100%? Nowhere and we all know that the worst it can get is around 5% so 12.5% is pretty good. Ama?


you havent answered my question , i asked u a very direct question...WHAT IS YOUR LONG TERM VIEW ON INTEREST RATES? the highest inflation can get to is 5 %? really?

@2012, a little reality check on inflation rates:
2008 - 16.3%
2009 - 9%
2011 jan - 5.42%
And all this is after changing their calculation formula, base year and the contribution by foodstuff(downwards). The bond's return might look good but you should look at the opportunity cost coz 30 years is a damn long time....
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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2012
#28 Posted : Tuesday, February 15, 2011 9:54:38 AM
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Joined: 12/9/2009
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kizee1 wrote:
.WHAT IS YOUR LONG TERM VIEW ON INTEREST RATES? the highest inflation can get to is 5 %? really?


My friend, nobody can honestly answer that question but it's not looking good at the moment.
1. The Meteorological Dept. is predicting doom as always
2. Next year is election year and you know what that means to the western world
3. The CBK Governor's term is coming to an end and we don't know what Kibs intends to do.
4. The PM having drastically dropped in popularity is spreading fears of war in 2012.

I humbly withdraw that statement on 5%.

BBI will solve it :)
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VituVingiSana
#29 Posted : Tuesday, February 15, 2011 11:03:53 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,097
Location: Nairobi
2012 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
.WHAT IS YOUR LONG TERM VIEW ON INTEREST RATES? the highest inflation can get to is 5 %? really?


My friend, nobody can honestly answer that question but it's not looking good at the moment.
1. The Meteorological Dept. is predicting doom as always
2. Next year is election year and you know what that means to the western world
3. The CBK Governor's term is coming to an end and we don't know what Kibs intends to do.
4. The PM having drastically dropped in popularity is spreading fears of war in 2012.

I humbly withdraw that statement on 5%.
Add food inflation [not just Kenya's drought but also worldwide food prices rising] Then add oil shocks [Oil prices are +12% vs last year. Even touched $100. An uprising in Bahrain or Qatar [or saudi arabia] can push oil up to $120 easily...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kizee1
#30 Posted : Tuesday, February 15, 2011 11:35:44 AM
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ok mr 2012...wats ur short term view on rates? maybe u cud scalp ur bond position and make a coin
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jerry
#31 Posted : Monday, February 21, 2011 10:10:41 PM
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@MatataMingi; @Wendz has not yet been answered I think. Will the bond be tradable say, next month or next yr? Some of us are new-bies in bonds.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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kizee1
#32 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 9:44:30 AM
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jerry wrote:
@MatataMingi; @Wendz has not yet been answered I think. Will the bond be tradable say, next month or next yr? Some of us are new-bies in bonds.



it will be...again tradeable lots must be material, anything less than 1mio isnt really tradeable
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SAC Cohen
#33 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 10:24:43 AM
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PUT in a few bids staggered at 16%-25%. Lets see how keen the govt is for my money. KES100K bid at 16% will mean bid at a discount of abount 70 per 100 meaning that the interest payemnts over approx 6 years will pay me back. Anything after that is money on top. EASIET DECISION OF THE MONTH TO MAKE
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VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 11:21:02 AM
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@SAC - Wow! I was going for PAR to a yield of 14% but not 16%
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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The Merchant
#35 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 11:53:46 AM
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SAC Cohen wrote:
PUT in a few bids staggered at 16%-25%. Lets see how keen the govt is for my money. KES100K bid at 16% will mean bid at a discount of abount 70 per 100 meaning that the interest payemnts over approx 6 years will pay me back. Anything after that is money on top. EASIET DECISION OF THE MONTH TO MAKE

ATI WHAT!!d'oh!
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kizee1
#36 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 12:10:41 PM
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no wonder njuguna ndungu says every market has a mad man
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SAC Cohen
#37 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 1:32:44 PM
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I am confident that they (MADMEN) will take bids upto 18%. This bond is a statement for Ndungu.
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kizee1
#38 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 1:38:33 PM
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u will fail miserably..but i commend ur bravery
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SAC Cohen
#39 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 1:45:31 PM
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Where do you reckon the cut-off will be then kizee esq.
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kizee1
#40 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 1:49:04 PM
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max 14.5...
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