@vvs if you read the CCK report through, you will understand that the ARPU of 362 takes into account the then prevailing price of 3/- per minute for airtel and 2/- to 5 for safaricom, it was compiled end of September and 3/- started end of August, my analysis if fairly factual and representative.

I have used earlier report to assist in making fairly accurate current projections.

If you check historically also, the industry ARPU is always lower than safcoms, you can also use the MINUTES OF USE for when the prices were 8/- (vuka introduced Sep 2008)Safcom ARPU fell from 616 to 475 a major dip but there was a sharp rise in voice revenue because of MINUTES OF USE of which the report shows a sharp rise in, voice ARPU is not declining as fast(a reason why there is congestion)

@muchknow - I expect Safaricom might be OK [similar to FY 2009-10] as far as revenues are concerned [Data, Sales of goods, M-Pesa]... but I fear the profits in 2H will suffer... Even more in 2010-11...

Data will be the 'saving grace' [SMS are included in data but I think the number of 'regular' SMS sent through/by Safaricom have stagnated]...

Another HUGE income stream [lumped with SMS above] will be the SMS lotteries e.g. 6969 where Safaricom is far ahead of the rest... The profits will be HUGE...

In 2010-11 SMS lotteries will play a smaller part [if the ban stays]. The SMS costs have dropped significantly to match Airtel. Calling costs/prices are also down. Minutes will be up but there is a loss of customers to Airtel [maybe Yu & Orange].

I like Safaricom as an investment. Just not at 4.30 but I would look at it seriously at 3.50 or lower...

Grapevine has it that mtn could close in on yu soon. Stil waiting for more confirmation...

@mozernut,if this guyz share Base stations,how come in my hood there are three towers within a 100 meters.
my guess is that we may never agree on safcom, since some of you are shareholders while some of us are consumers.... and by the way,kwani wat is wrong with a fis market?

thought/assumed safcon was one of best employers-salarythingy. PM said peanuts! is that really thecase?