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30yr bond at 12%. Any takers?
Wa_ithaka
#1 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 8:28:00 AM
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CBK has launched its longest bond yet for 30yrs. I think its a good idea and is the sort of thing banks thinking of going into the mortgage market should be looking to do.

However, I think its the interest rate is on the low side.

Your views?
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
Wendz
#2 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 9:06:13 AM
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Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
I saw this on news. What is the lock-in period? That will determine how attractive it is. Many investors do not want their money locked in without any chance of exercising their right to exit should a better opportunity come calling.
kizee1
#3 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 9:57:07 AM
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wendz...the lock in period is 30 years lol...tho u cud sell it on the secondary market
maka
#4 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 10:22:48 AM
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Joined: 4/22/2010
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This bond will mostly be taken up by fund managers and the NSSF I dont think there is any bank that will dare touch this as it will be almost impossible to trade it on the secondary market just look at the 25 year bond those still holding are stuck with the paper
possunt quia posse videntur
bwenyenye
#5 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 10:35:21 AM
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Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
Guys,

I think the return is not as bad at it seems. Look at it this way, what other options do you have that you can invest and be quiet while earning for 30 years. The main option is real estate as in rental property. You get land, put up a building and rent it out. Now a quarter an acre will cost you about 5M bob in a good location.( Ruaka, Jamhuri etc)Then, put up about 25M to put up a buiding that will bring you about 350K pm in rent. i.e Kshs4.2M p.a assuming 100% occupancy and pay rate.i.e is a 14% return on investment.

Now, other than the capital gains on the property, why would I go into all the hullabaloo of sourcing land, getting approvals, building etc for and extra 2% returns?

My three pence...
I Think Therefore I Am
kizee1
#6 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 10:41:53 AM
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too low a return for 30 years...does anyone beleive kes interest rates can fall any lower? if the market turns as it most likely will u face a major revaluation loss
2012
#7 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 10:58:09 AM
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Joined: 12/9/2009
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Location: Nairobi
Maybe all these insurance cum investment companies can put investors money there and start giving better returns than the insulting 8%pa.

I think it's a very wise investment if you have kids in school. Imagine if you invest 2m, you'll be set for school fees for 2 kids in a good private primary school.

BBI will solve it
:)
kizee1
#8 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 11:06:36 AM
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it is not a wise investment! cbk are trying to lock in funds for 30years at a time when inflation and rates are surging...surely people...anyway its ur money guys
amolo
#9 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 11:10:44 AM
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Does anybody know the current life expectancy in Kenya, it was 45 yrs a while ago. Whatever it is, subtract 30 and get the age of the guys (individuals)who should be investing in that bond!
Just wish I had put more money in the Kengen Bond!
jerry
#10 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 11:29:00 AM
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@amolo; Life expectancy of a fetus/foetus is not same as for a baby, neither is it same as for a 45yr old. Or is it 0 for 45 yr old? So it varies with your age.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
Kirika
#11 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 11:32:23 AM
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Location: Nairobi

Like someone has just said the Insurance Cos. will buy the bond using our money and give us 8% p.a. But hey it's a Capitalist world where there's always a greater fool.

I think its a better option than the Insurance Products being hawked all over. The interest should have atleast been 15%, atleast given the duration.
Stealth
#12 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 11:47:23 AM
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Location: East Africa
its better than what many insurance co's are giving. Plus if you have the cash and don't feel like playing the market, why not. As @ 2012 said if you have 2m, then you've got school fees for some good school.
maka
#13 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 12:46:31 PM
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12% return isnt that bad lets say u buy those NHC house @ 5.5 million with rental income of between 30 - 40k a month thts around 360k to 480 k per year invest that same amount in the bond you will be receiving a return of 660k even if u remove tax its way better than buying the house...
possunt quia posse videntur
2012
#14 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 12:49:19 PM
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Joined: 12/9/2009
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Kirika wrote:

The interest should have atleast been 15%, atleast given the duration.


Ati 15%? And you'll still expect banks to give mortgages at below 15% while they can put it here where there's guaranteed returns?

I personally don't think it's too bad after all and if I'm not wrong if you compound 1m at 12.5% x30yrs it's well over 30m. Fantastic way to save for retirement ama?

BBI will solve it
:)
msimon
#15 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 2:58:52 PM
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Joined: 8/23/2010
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Location: Kampala
2012 wrote:
Kirika wrote:

The interest should have atleast been 15%, atleast given the duration.


Ati 15%? And you'll still expect banks to give mortgages at below 15% while they can put it here where there's guaranteed returns?

I personally don't think it's too bad after all and if I'm not wrong if you compound 1m at 12.5% x30yrs it's well over 30m. Fantastic way to save for retirement ama?

You know, there's a greater probability that in the next 30yrs, you could buy that bond at 90 and a slight probability that you could also buy it at 80. Now if your patient and you consider getting good returns for your shilling. I think you could wait and buy it over the next 30 yrs at say 80. Markets can be irrational.
kizee1
#16 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 3:46:53 PM
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maka wrote:
12% return isnt that bad lets say u buy those NHC house @ 5.5 million with rental income of between 30 - 40k a month thts around 360k to 480 k per year invest that same amount in the bond you will be receiving a return of 660k even if u remove tax its way better than buying the house...



though rental income will not remain static for the next 30years, the coupon however will
2012
#17 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 3:52:32 PM
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kizee1 wrote:
though rental income will not remain static for the next 30years, the coupon however will


It might go up or down, sometimes you'll have a tenant other times not, it might burn down, might be on a road reserve, the massais might want their land back, some dude could come up with another title deed... So please don't say there's no risk.

BBI will solve it
:)
kizee1
#18 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 10:58:14 AM
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Location: nairobi
2012 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
though rental income will not remain static for the next 30years, the coupon however will


It might go up or down, sometimes you'll have a tenant other times not, it might burn down, might be on a road reserve, the massais might want their land back, some dude could come up with another title deed... So please don't say there's no risk.



theres also a risk that in 30 years teh country u know as kenya may cease to exist.....if u think im talkin nonesense ask the guys holdin the ivory coast euro bond..this argument is not about risk per se..its about return
2012
#19 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 11:14:58 AM
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Joined: 12/9/2009
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Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
theres also a risk that in 30 years teh country u know as kenya may cease to exist.....


And which tenant will agree to continue paying you rent in this situation? How much will the Kes that you are holding be worth? It is upon you and me to make sure that scenario doesn't occur otherwise no investment will make sense even being a refugee somewhere with $1m.

BBI will solve it
:)
MatataMingi
#20 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 4:54:26 PM
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Joined: 11/17/2009
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Location: Where everyone knows you
@ All
I tend to agree with @ Kizee1. 12% is TOO low for 30 years.
If you look at the latest 10 year bond dated 31/1/2011, the coupon was 9.307%. However the yield was higher at 9.683%.
Interesting fact was that bids were 17,694 Billion. However CBK only accepted 1,086 Billion. That is only just over 6% of bids !!!

Why. I think investors have seen that the government is hungry for local funds. The investors sense this and putting in higher bids.

If you look at the 91/ 182/364/ trend, yields have been going up since Oct. 2010.
I dont see this trend changing any time soon.

Also dont forget that in 2008, 182 day bills were paying about 9%

It IMO that the 30 year bond will have a lot of bids, but CBK will only accept a very little proportion. Unless it is in dire needs of funds.

Which ever way it goes the coupon is 12%, but the actual yield will be much higher - maybe 14%.

I think in a few years, we may see 2 year bonds giving 9% yields.
My 2 cents - though I manage a few clients who invest with CBK.
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