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Could Safaricom issue a profit warning?
miser
#1 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 3:18:22 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/7/2008
Posts: 124
Just wondering when!

"A near halving of call costs in the third quarter of last year caused a steep decline in consumer spending on telecommunication, pointing to a looming slowdown of profits growth across the sector....The CCK’s data shows that Telkom Kenya, Airtel and Yu may have finally broken what was informally known as the ‘ring-fence’ advantage that the market leader had on consumers"

Alafu si huyu Mufaransa asema matope tu!Tafadhali do not improve and you will be left alone Mr.C.E.O to calling your relas with your stringlike telephony!!!WaKubuka ile mikembe mbili na uzi katikati katika somo la Physics ama ni fisikia???

“Consumers who are currently enjoying the fruits of the price wars may very soon start feeling the pain of under-investment in quality improvement(because)more than halving of calling rates means the operators have lost at least 50 per cent of the revenues...laying the ground for guarded spending on infrastructure and product development".Says Mr Mikhael Ghossein, the Telkom Kenya chief executive.
bartum
#2 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 3:49:26 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
how is all this related to saf profit warning
selah
#3 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 3:58:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
As long as safaricom is still controlling 70% of voice and 92.2% data price warning will come but not this early...with all the promotion airtel managed to get 1M new subscribers against about half a million for safaricom ....Imagine that.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
For Sport
#4 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 4:05:44 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
someone wake up up when the price gets to 2. otherwise, let me sleep
Jamani
#5 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 4:09:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
miser wrote:
Just wondering when!

"A near halving of call costs in the third quarter of last year caused a steep decline in consumer spending on telecommunication, pointing to a looming slowdown of profits growth across the sector....The CCK’s data shows that Telkom Kenya, Airtel and Yu may have finally broken what was informally known as the ‘ring-fence’ advantage that the market leader had on consumers"

Alafu si huyu Mufaransa asema matope tu!Tafadhali do not improve and you will be left alone Mr.C.E.O to calling your relas with your stringlike telephony!!!WaKubuka ile mikembe mbili na uzi katikati katika somo la Physics ama ni fisikia???

“Consumers who are currently enjoying the fruits of the price wars may very soon start feeling the pain of under-investment in quality improvement(because)more than halving of calling rates means the operators have lost at least 50 per cent of the revenues...laying the ground for guarded spending on infrastructure and product development".Says Mr Mikhael Ghossein, the Telkom Kenya chief executive.


Miser, I doubt the profit warning will come anytime now. Read the report in the papers without bias and you will see the effect is kidogo sana (upwards or downwards) infact it leaves one wondering the minds at airtel.They did not achieve what they wanted and are seriously contributing to the profit margins of safcom through interconnect while they make a loss....
CCK says the ring is broken well lets wait till the promotion is over then we shall for sure know if it is.
It will take abit of time to bring safcom to its knees not with one promotion.
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 5:07:08 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,351
Location: Nairobi
The ring fence [club effect] around Safaricom has holes. I use Airtel almost exclusively. Why? [I don't care whether Airtel loses money] Coz it is CHEAPER for me to call Airtel, Yu & Orange from Airtel than from Safaricom!!!

Since I make lots of calls I find I save a lot more using Airtel [BTW, all sms from Airtel are 1/- including Safaricom]...

My international calls from Airtel are also cheaper than Safaricom!

Orange's service/quality is spotty. I tried Yu but I found Airtel's 1/- deal very attractive especially as others joined Airtel [I find most firms now have an Orange [Telkom], Safaricom & Airtel line...

Bottomline: My calling costs are down 50-60% since Airtel came in!

Safaricom WILL lose revenues & profits:

1) My Airtel-Safaricom calls earn Safcon only 2.26 [incl tax] not 3/- [incl tax]
2) Firms/people with 2 SIMs [safcon + airtel] I only call on Airtel [1/- vs 3/- so zero for safcon]
3) My international calls + sms using safcon down to almost zero [Plus I pay only 3/- to call UK/USA/Canada/China/India vs old 20/- that safcon used to charge]
4) I found out that calling Uganda/Tanzania is also cheaper on Airtel [which has sister firms there] than Safaricom. BTW, if you call a Warid [Uganda] line from Yu Kenya, it is only 3/-!!!

So using me as an example... my spend [revenue] on Safaricom has dropped 95% for voice. Even if you consider off-net [Airtel to Safaricom] still down 80%.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 5:16:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,351
Location: Nairobi
On data... I used to spend ZERO on Airtel. Too slow but I do spend a little coz they have a cheap bundle on my phone.

I have INCREASED my spend on data on Safaricom AFTER they reduced the prices. I am on the lookout for other cheaper BUT quality options. This is not Airtel 'taking' from Safaricom but additional spend.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#8 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 6:58:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
The ring fence [club effect] around Safaricom has holes. I use Airtel almost exclusively. Why? [I don't care whether Airtel loses money] Coz it is CHEAPER for me to call Airtel, Yu & Orange from Airtel than from Safaricom!!!

Since I make lots of calls I find I save a lot more using Airtel [BTW, all sms from Airtel are 1/- including Safaricom]...

My international calls from Airtel are also cheaper than Safaricom!

Orange's service/quality is spotty. I tried Yu but I found Airtel's 1/- deal very attractive especially as others joined Airtel [I find most firms now have an Orange [Telkom], Safaricom & Airtel line...

Bottomline: My calling costs are down 50-60% since Airtel came in!

Safaricom WILL lose revenues & profits:

1) My Airtel-Safaricom calls earn Safcon only 2.26 [incl tax] not 3/- [incl tax]
2) Firms/people with 2 SIMs [safcon + airtel] I only call on Airtel [1/- vs 3/- so zero for safcon]
3) My international calls + sms using safcon down to almost zero [Plus I pay only 3/- to call UK/USA/Canada/China/India vs old 20/- that safcon used to charge]
4) I found out that calling Uganda/Tanzania is also cheaper on Airtel [which has sister firms there] than Safaricom. BTW, if you call a Warid [Uganda] line from Yu Kenya, it is only 3/-!!!

So using me as an example... my spend [revenue] on Safaricom has dropped 95% for voice. Even if you consider off-net [Airtel to Safaricom] still down 80%.


Yeah, no one said you shouldnt enjoy the cheap calls, the point is only 5% of safcom clients moved and this was expected...
Fact that Safcom havent issued a profit warning tells you something about the revenues, fact that Airtel still made a loss despite getting 1 million subs tells you something, fact that Airtel is paying more to safcom for interconnect also speaks alot, Fact that Yu are not considering going to 3g tells you alot... fact that if Airtel dents safcom, Kenyas will be the loosers.... so enjoy the cheap rates and please do!!! while it lasts but remember there is nothing cheap everything comes at a cost, this could be a cost to your colleagues in the telco industry jobs to india, to techonology e.g. Yu has shelved advancement, cost of the govt and country at large..
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 7:12:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,351
Location: Nairobi
@Jamani - Safcon will remain #1 [IMHO] for the next few years regardless of Airtel's efforts. Nevertheless, it will lose its extreme dominance if Airtel [& YU] can keep up the pressure.

BTW, no jobs were outsourced to India. That is a lie peddled by SafCon & its fan club aka shareholders! I read the reports. The outsourcing firm is Mara of Uganda [we are all EAC members. Uganda is a very important export market for Kenya. We should give a little too.]

Safaricom's best paid employee(s) are FOREIGN. Bob is NOT Kenyan! [Well, neither is Meza but sorta hypocritical when Bob cries about losing much lower-paying Kenyan jobs]

As for Yu. That is THEIR business strategy [2G vs 3G]. They do not want [or have the muscle] to compete against SAFCON... unlike Airtel! Thanks to Airtel we will see a huge drop in 3G costs in 2Q 2011 after they launch 3G!
I will be happy to vuka IF Airtel gives me CHEAPER & BETTER deal on 3G...

Where is the 'loss' for Kenyans? [Except safcon shareholders]

1) Lower calling rates = lower repatriation of profits to UK by vodaphone
2) Losses by Airtel means net inflow of FDI to support the local business
3) Airtel 3G means NET investment IN Kenya. New towers, base stations, leases for towers, new HQ, more Kenyan jobs!
4) Lower calling rates = increased spending power to Kenyans to buy ugali or invest in safcon! d'oh!
5) Airtel Money (Zap) is cheaper than M-Pesa [I know coz I use it]. I can pay KPLC for FREE whereas M-Pesa charges me!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#10 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 7:26:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Jamani - Safcon will remain #1 [IMHO] for the next few years regardless of Airtel's efforts. Nevertheless, it will lose its extreme dominance if Airtel [& YU] can keep up the pressure.Ok
BTW, no jobs were outsourced to India. That is a lie peddled by SafCon & its fan club aka shareholders! I read the reports. The outsourcing firm is Mara of Uganda [we are all EAC members. Uganda is a very important export market for Kenya. We should give a little too.] Please check out their HQ at Parkside

Safaricom's best paid employee(s) are FOREIGN. Bob is NOT Kenyan! [Well, neither is Meza but sorta hypocritical when Bob cries about Kenyan jobs] Ok

As for Yu. That is THEIR business strategy. They do not want or have the muscle to compete against SAFCON... not Airtel! Thanks to Airtel we will see a huge drop in 3G costs! I will be happy to vuka IF Airtel gives me CHEAPER & BETTER 3G...They were planning to get to 3g they just stopped due to ROI

Where is the 'loss' for Kenyans? Taxes, Jobs, Closure, technological advancements, among others [Except safcon shareholders]

1) Lower calling rates = lower repatriation of profits to UK by vodaphone and lower taxes, lower dividents, could lead to little or no technological advancement meaning we shall remain behind as the rest of the world advances

2) Losses by Airtel means net inflow of FDI to support the local business could translate to loss of investment hitting the govt and country hard

3) Airtel 3G means NET investment IN Kenya. New towers, base stations, leases for towers, new HQ, more Kenyan jobs!No new towers will be built for only 3g, they will utilise what they have nothing its just addition of equipment not tower

4) Lower calling rates = more communications = increased spending power to Kenyans Ok

5) Airtel Money (Zap) is cheaper than M-Pesa [I know coz I use it]. I can pay KPLC for FREE whereas M-Pesa charges me! Ok

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