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mumias sugar H1 down 22%
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kenmac
#51 Posted : Thursday, February 03, 2011 8:35:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,793
@maich, it feels brrrrrrr........and it is time to average down.
......Ecclesiastes
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awando
#52 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 4:36:41 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 2/4/2011
Posts: 8
Location: kenya
I am very bullish on MSC. The fundamentals of this counter are very solid. Our 1yr target price for this counter is Kshs 13.21.

Check out this valuation: http://www.investragy.com/content.php?postid=85

We are forecasting MSC to beat FY10 numbers based on solid valuation.

Cheers!
www.investragy.com
www.twitter.com/investragy
www.facebook.com/investragycapital
Investragy Capital - Portfolio Strategies for East Africa.
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erifloss
#53 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 8:34:07 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Paul Kukubo wrote:
tardda project is dead. munias can only survive if it buys all western province sugar producers to reduce competition. Six bob is fair price for this company before comesa market kills it.

@Paul, true! What mumias has to do is buy the sugar producers in western and expand their brand presence. Tarda project is a dream and even if it picks up it will be late coz of comesa and recouping the investment will be a huge hustle. Carbon trading & ethanol adds very little to the topline and is of no consequence.
They pay farmers very little per tonnage of cane and with the registration of butali within west's quota a precedent has been set and soon another 'butali' might come up in their region and take advantage of the poor payments to farmers.
6 is not far fetched.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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guru267
#54 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 9:24:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Mumias seems to have be gaining support contrary to guru's gospel.


Bargain hunters don't last for long... If the stock is in a downward trend then the correction upwards should be an opportunity to sell the counter...

It might not last forever..

Disclaimer: Its been long since i carried out research on this one...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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2012
#55 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 9:56:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
So what ails Mumias? I've just never understood. There's always a time in every year when there's a sugar shortage and supermarket are forced to sell only one pack pp at an exaggerated price and all these well connected individuals get approvals to import titanic loads of sugar. We all know sugar demand in Kenya far outstrips supply so what is it really, is Mumias poorly managed? Wastage, bad marketing strategies, high operating costs or what? I honestly don't get. If there hurdles with Tarda why not acquire those guys at Awendo or some of those other struggling millers?

BBI will solve it :)
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, February 04, 2011 9:58 AM | Reason: Not specified
youcan'tstopusnow
#56 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 1:28:01 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
And why does 'bad weather' every time affect transportation of sugarcane? Do they expect the govt. to tarmack the roads upto the farms? They should consider improving the road network themselves
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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the deal
#57 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 10:39:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
MSC is going through a relief rally...today supply outstripped demand...it´s going down.
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VituVingiSana
#58 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 12:30:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
@youcant - Ignorance is the worst sin...

GoK charges a LEVY on sugar/sugarcane & the funds are supposed to go to 'develop' the areas & industry... Yeah, right! They are used to buy 4x4s & employ cronies at Kenya Sugar Board!

There is supposed [note the 'supposed'] to be a program to build/upgrade/maintain roads in the sugar producing areas lakini wapi???

Anyway, MSC has asked [for years] that the levy be collected by an INDEPENDENT organization & the funds be administered by MSC [for the Mumias catchment area] & the farmers/stakeholders... Of course, this means MSC & the farmers are responsible for the cash & results...

So should I continue to explain why neither MSC nor the farmers have much say in how the Sugar Levy is used/spent?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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youcan'tstopusnow
#59 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 8:47:01 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VVS, no ignorance. That's why I said MSC should not expect the government to tarmack the roads anytime soon. This year the levy charged was probably 'transferred' to the drought relief to buy dead/dying cows
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, February 05, 2011 8:50 AM | Reason: Not specified
qw25041985
#60 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 12:12:33 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@ the deal . the ceo of mumias,kebati is expecting the sugar project at coast to begin next year and also expects the rebound in 2H to be good.Secondly ethanol plant will start operations to begin in 2012.It is envisaged ethanol will contribute 1.5 billion shillings per year in revenues .24 billion-shilling
sugar project at the Kenyan coast, which it hopes can get underway
next year.We all know the advantages of growing sugar cane at coast.Thirdly more cane crushed coz in the current half-year they are going to have a full six
months of operation since it has been relatively dry since December and they are able to crush more cane .To put the final nail on this coffin all this is coming from the C.E.O .This is just good.

so if you want to sell go ahead. technically it will go down but for those w/ a long-term view ( ME included)its a bliss if it hits its 6.00 support . i am camped there actually.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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