I am not a Technical Analyst but looking at the NSE Index over the last 6 months, it only dipped below the 4,400 mark during the month of December where it remained for practically the whole month, hitting a low of 4,326.08 on 17th December, 2010.
Considering the above pattern, I would consider the current level of 4,386.69 to be almost ready for an upward correction. Banks will start reporting towards the end of the month which usually provides some bullish sentiment.
I expect that once the upward swing begins the index will push up to at least the 4,600 level which will likely result in 10% gains or so on counters like KCB, Equity Bank, HF, CoopBank and others such as Sasini, Scangroup & Mumias Sugar.
The banks should move up for obvious reasons while Sasini and Mumias have simply been hit a little harder than normal. Scangroup rallies for almost no reason so I have learnt to embrace it.
Where are the short term traders?