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KenolKobil, KPLC or KCB?
earthvoice
#51 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 10:57:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/29/2011
Posts: 257
@all: loving the discussionApplause .
Two things though:

1. does anyone know what the current status of KK litigation is, and the possible effects that this litigation could have on future profitability (and, of course, share prices)? I'm inclined to believe that this has partly influenced the current stagnant share price.

2. not much has been said of the 3rd K, KPLC; does the recently concluded rights issue not augur well for share prices in the immediate future?
"All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
VituVingiSana
#52 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 10:59:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
@the deal - KK would prefer oil at $50 since it means financing costs go down + greater comsumption levels coz lower prices!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#53 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 8:11:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS, @the deal bottom line is that KK will announce lower profits for 2011 in August which will send the share price lower...

Mark my words....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#54 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 8:39:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
@VVS, @the deal bottom line is that KK will announce lower profits for 2011 in August which will send the share price lower...

Mark my words....
Unlike @qw... I am sure you will keep your word if we bet...!

1) I am not disputing KK will have lower 1H 2011 profits against 1H 2010 in Kenya due to due to Price Caps in Kenya + fluctuating Crude/Fuel prices.

2) I believe KK's regional strategy will pay off.

3)KK will emerge stronger in Kenya as others collapse UNLESS there is a massive scam allowing 'connected' firms to avoid taxes, etc.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Papa Investor
#55 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:16:46 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/3/2010
Posts: 96
KK, is my do or die portion of my portfolio...its one of those shares in a unique position of having limited downsides (partially mitigated by its low EPS and respectable dividend yield) and potentially limitless upside based on the fact that oil is now nearly as essential to day to day life as air. Coupled with a dynamic mgt (compared to the other oil major), it stands them great benefit

but do agree....it may take a dip post 1st half results announcement...but do not see it dipping below avg of shs 9 when got in, (assuming it rallies post mar to appox 12-13 then it can only drop to the shs 10 range)

KCB is the other major portion of my portfolio (avg 21) however intend to drop out once it passes 25...the share is too stagnant and mgt team does not inspire a lot of dynamism and market response, but they are in a sweet spot as regarding their S&L business which is now under attack but BBK, Stanchart and even coop.

Really worried about the Mckinsey involvement in KCB, have worked with them extensively on a number of projects and they are only as good as the direction they get from the top...not sure the large KCB mgt team is aligned enough to give crystal clear directions to MCkinsey in which case the 2 yr project will probably costs over $5m-$10m and will only result in mangled staff morale and no impact on sustainable

Culture plays a big role in any business and the culture of KCB is not as entrepreneurial as say Coop or equity...and Mckinsey will not solve this. If the board was really serious, they would make a once in a lifetime offer for Muriuki to jump ship and steer the big ship going forward. he has done a remarkable job at coop and has the right skill set to run a locally owned bank.

Just my 2 cents
selah
#56 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 11:24:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
guru267 wrote:

the monthly adjustment of 1 shilling when crude has risen $10 just doesnt cut it... Besides 2010 profits were made when crude was at $85 and pump prices were 100bob

Now tell me if they'll match that with crude at $100 and pump prices at 95.6bob


if we were to work with the above figures then per liter of crude the marketers would be buying it @Ksh 68/= P.L therefore if they were to maintain The current price of ksh 95/=P.L it would leave ksh 27/= P.L to cater for refining,transportation and other over heads.

We know maintaining the current pump prices will not be possible if the crude prices continue to soar, therefore KK will continue making profits as long as the use of the formula is adhered to.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
jerry
#57 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 11:25:31 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
@Papacito! I have some KCB shares but I've also never been confortable/confident with it(KCB). There is a Dep M.D. to Oduor who was once at Coop.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
invest0r
#58 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 10:53:08 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
KCB is set to break the KES.24 resistance level and move all the way to its correct valuation of KES 30+ in the near term.

Note the following.
1. Full Year Financial Results are just about to be released. (they will definitely be impressive)
2. KCB has the largest asset book among the banks in the region (note that banks' cash cow is asset book)
3. The bank has a presence in the Kenya, Southern Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. (that SS will yield alot in 2011)
4. The bank has over 215 BRANCHES (good branch network to sell it products including the S&L mortgage)
5. The MCkinsey consultations are good news to a shareholders ears. Efficiency is key in an organisation's performance.
6. KCB has great prospects in 2011

Take the current opportunity to buy enough shares
jerry
#59 Posted : Thursday, February 03, 2011 7:48:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
@invest0r. Thanks for those encouraging points.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
2012
#60 Posted : Thursday, February 03, 2011 12:18:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
invest0r wrote:
KCB is set to break the KES.24 resistance level and move all the way to its correct valuation of KES 30+ in the near term.


It sure has broken the Kes.24 resistance level, now at Kes.22smile

BBI will solve it
:)
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