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KenolKobil, KPLC or KCB?
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jerry
#41 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 2:58:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
cnn wrote:
@guru,explain what you mean by margins being hit.On the issue of rising crude, as has been said before,the monthly adjustments as per the ERC formula will take care of that at the pump.

@Guru. As you ponder over @cnn's querry, why is KCB "mis-behaving"?
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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guru267
#42 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 5:01:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
@guru,explain what you mean by margins being hit.On the issue of rising crude, as has been said before,the monthly adjustments as per the ERC formula will take care of that at the pump.


the monthly adjustment of 1 shilling when crude has risen $10 just doesnt cut it... Besides 2010 profits were made when crude was at $85 and pump prices were 100bob

Now tell me if they'll match that with crude at $100 and pump prices at 95.6bob
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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cnn
#43 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 7:13:31 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
@guru,the details and dynamics of the fuel control formula and the various fuel components contributions to the oil marketers business pre and post controls have been detailed on other threads,i will not go back to that.On the 100 dollar crude wait until the products purchased at that price hit the pumps and we will discuss that 95.6 then.
I have two dates with KK ,in April and August and i remain supremely confident.
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guru267
#44 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 7:26:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
@guru,the details and dynamics of the fuel control formula and the various fuel components contributions to the oil marketers business pre and post controls have been detailed on other threads,i will not go back to that.On the 100 dollar crude wait until the products purchased at that price hit the pumps and we will discuss that 95.6 then.
I have two dates with KK ,in April and August and i remain supremely confident.


@cnn this the point I'm trying to make... KK will announce stellar profit growth for the year 2010.. This will drive up the share price temporarily until june...

There is absolutely no evidence to show that they will come to the same profit figure in 2011 and this should make the share underperform for the full year of 2011
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#45 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 7:40:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
jerry wrote:

@Guru. As you ponder over @cnn's querry, why is KCB "mis-behaving"?


@jerry you will not believe the amount of resistance KCB has at the 24 level...

Infact it is sooo much so that speculators will not touch the stock until it touches 25bob and a rally is in full force....

If one is VERY patient you can get in now because kcb has been valued using many metrics at around 32bob...

But if you are looking for quick gains wait for 25bob then ride with it until 32
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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cnn
#46 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 7:48:28 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
@guru,the August date is for KK half year,an early pointer to full year 2011.The same controls vs profitability scenario refers and the oil majors will beat 2010 though the growth will be lower than 2010.For KK add the regional growth.The industry has its possible shocks which could alter the prospects,but KK remains my call.
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MaichBlack
#47 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 8:16:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,869
Bettertry wrote:
jerry wrote:
They managed a dividend of KES 0.325 in 2009. What can we expect in results for last yr?

Correction, dividend for FY09 was Ksh 3.25 and not as u posted!!!

@Butterfly - @Jerry factored in the split! Oh how nice it would be to have a share worth Kshs. 10/= paying me a dividend of Kshs. 3.25/=!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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jerry
#48 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 9:09:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
@MaichBlack, Thanx. @Guru;Since my break even for KCB is 25/= I need not do anything. Thanks for your encouraging analysis/observations. @cnn; we are together on KK at least up to April.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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VituVingiSana
#49 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 10:32:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
KK in Kenya will not survive coming oil shocks...
KPLC and KCB will do it for you
I disagree. KK will suffer but GoK/Kenyans will suffer even more coz KK will not make losses just to sell fuel. Plus KK has a great 'export' market...

I wonder how GoK/ERC will tackle the high fuel/oil prices [now above $92/bbl] when the next 'increase' happens in 2 weeks!

Bottomline: Small importers/independents will suffer more [except if they DON'T pay taxes/VAT/levies]. That means KK can gain greater market share of PROFITABLE sales!

GoK quietly allowed OMCs to import fuels OUTSIDE of OTS as there is a looming shortage of Diesel. Also KRA got involved.

Bottomline: KK will use its PRIVATE FACILITIES to import for (more profitable) Export markets... The local market will be served/dedicated for sales through OTS imports...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#50 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 10:38:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
KK is great stock to own, look at its Pan African drive...Segman and Co will never let KK down although sometimes they have risked too much...KK can only make losses if oil prices crash to 50 US$ per barrel...i dont see that happening unless we have another recession, if that happens which stock will not be affected.
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