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SINGLE PAYMENT LIABILITY
emlyn ngwiri
#1 Posted : Monday, January 24, 2011 12:17:30 PM
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Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
HI Guys,

a manager of an investment company wants to offset a single payment liability with an immunized portfolio,precisely, either a bullet or a barell strategy would apply.

Kindly assist me as to why a bullet strategy would be the best in practice?
Scooby
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 12:28:39 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Hi Emlyn,

Am going to assume that there is some aspect of confidentiality in your query...so I will guestimate the duration for the liability is five years.

So, if that is the case, it makes more sense for one to invest in five year securities especially fixed income investments to match the payment of the liability.

In constrast, one may choose to equally in a three year and seven year investment that will result in a "weighted" average duration of five years. The issue with this strategy is that after three years, you will be required to invest another two year bond and you will be forced to sell the seven year bond when times up.

The issue with the reinvestment is that the reinvestment rate may be unfavourable to the investment manager...and for the latter, once could be forced to sell it at a bad price.

The first illustration is some form of bullet strategy while the other is a barbell strategy. Let me know if this makes sense.

Regards
emlyn ngwiri
#3 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 9:01:20 AM
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Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
hi scooby,

well it make sense but remember that the barrell strategy allows for one to lock in on the high interest rates for a long term bond issue.further the barell strategy allows for reinvestment of funds in the near term.

True indeed that the prevailing interest rate may not be favorable,the question is, why is it a lower risk strategy? (bullet) and more importantly, how can it be used to assist the manager rebalance his immunized portfolio?
Scooby
#4 Posted : Thursday, January 27, 2011 12:09:02 AM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Hi Emlyn,

A bullet strategy would make more sense from an ALM point of view - compared to a Barbell strategy. Remember that there is a cost to liquidity in terms of getting the maximum possible value of your investment.

For rebalancing, I would suggest that you determine the Kenya shilling duration (I read it as dollar duration) at the time you are making the investment. Thereafter, determine whether the duration amount has either increased or decreased over time.

This would determine whether you need to rebalance your investment.

Let me know if this makes sense

Regards
emlyn ngwiri
#5 Posted : Saturday, April 23, 2011 12:24:30 PM
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Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
@scooby yea it does thanks
Gordon Gekko
#6 Posted : Saturday, April 23, 2011 3:55:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@scooby, nay it doesn't. Sasa barbell ni ile natumia kwa gym?
Scooby
#7 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2011 12:20:01 AM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
@scooby yea it does thanks


You are welcome...

Barrywhite
#8 Posted : Monday, August 08, 2011 9:56:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 286
Location: Nairobi
What on God's good earth is this thread about? Can you folks simplify it a little for laymen/women like me?
The laudable is more often than not rendered laughable by overclaim
Scooby
#9 Posted : Monday, August 08, 2011 8:24:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Barrywhite wrote:
What on God's good earth is this thread about? Can you folks simplify it a little for laymen/women like me?


Barrywhite,

Assume that you need to pay someone Kshs. 1 million in five years and you have xxx ("the funds") that you have now.

What most investors tend to do is placing the funds in fixed income investment(s) with roughly the same duration as the liability that you would have to pay.

So, the earlier part of the thread was all about whether one should invest in a single five year investment (i.e. bullet), or a combination (i.e. barbell).

Bear in mind that the price of that fixed income investment(s) tend to vary depending on the prevailing yields.

Hence, one needs to decide, at certain points over the five years, as to whether they need additional or less investments to ensure that you have Kshs. 1 million after five years...stuff about dollar duration.

Hope that helps.
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