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STOCKS TO SELL by yaserbigchair
the deal
#301 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 12:07:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I had a Strong Buy recommendation but eishh i have to downgrade my recommendation to a HOLD/BUY...reason being management expect profits to grow by 5% y-o-y between now and 2014, with no power hike in 2011 i dont see where the growth trajectory will come from...i have a target price of 27 bob with a 1 year horizon on KPLC equating to a PE of 11.7 so at the current price of 22.5 KPLC is fairly priced...most industrials trade at a fair PE of 10.
guru267
#302 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 12:18:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
I had a Strong Buy recommendation but eishh i have to downgrade my recommendation to a HOLD/BUY...reason being management expect profits to grow by 5% y-o-y between now and 2014, with no power hike in 2011 i dont see where the growth trajectory will come from...i have a target price of 27 bob with a 1 year horizon on KPLC equating to a PE of 11.7 so at the current price of 22.5 KPLC is fairly priced...most industrials trade at a fair PE of 10.


@the deal the information memorandum projects 2011 profits to grow 12%..

Where do you get your figures of 5% by 2014
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#303 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 12:41:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
guru267 wrote:
the deal wrote:
I had a Strong Buy recommendation but eishh i have to downgrade my recommendation to a HOLD/BUY...reason being management expect profits to grow by 5% y-o-y between now and 2014, with no power hike in 2011 i dont see where the growth trajectory will come from...i have a target price of 27 bob with a 1 year horizon on KPLC equating to a PE of 11.7 so at the current price of 22.5 KPLC is fairly priced...most industrials trade at a fair PE of 10.


@the deal the information memorandum projects 2011 profits to grow 12%..

Where do you get your figures of 5% by 2014


Oh pole still even if KPLC achieves an a 12% increase in PAT...forward PE at 27 bob will still be above 10 i consider counters with forward PE's below 10 to be Undervalued...

look at this...KPLC compaired to its peers..

NamPower posts healthy figures for 2010
The Namibia Power Corporation (NamPower) has recorded an increase in the sale of electricity, up from N$ 1.4 billion last year to N$ 1.7 billion in 2010.
The national power utility, however, only recorded a net profit of N$ 264 million after tax in the 2009/2010 financial year, compared to N$ 527 million the previous year, while cash generated from operations also decreased from N$ 592 million in 2009 to N$ 494 million this year. – Nampa

1N$=Ksh 11.6
Namibia has a population of 2 Million.
jerry
#304 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 12:56:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
@sheep, you remind me of water for all by yr2000. Just a vision. Probably Ngilu wouldn't be in trouble. @guru. Thanks for acknowledging that unethical behaviour is rife in NSE.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
guru267
#305 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 1:10:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
When KPLC starts to achieve their goals and projections i think investors will start to value it more reasonably...

1.3 price/book and P/E of 10 sounds too pessimistic and unreasonable to me...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Aguytrying
#306 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 3:42:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@guru. I couldn't believe it also, but i got the rights at 0.50, confirmed by email. I bid at that price at around 2.00pm and i got it!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#307 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 3:46:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
After evaluating YBCR, for almost a month, i've come to the conclusion that he is a noisemaker. The kind that should be ignored.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
KIRTI
#308 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 4:09:25 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2010
Posts: 116
After reading a debate between YBCR & other Wazua i've come to the conclusion that not to buy KPLC additional right with bank loan. However i will apply for additional right with my own money.
guru267
#309 Posted : Friday, December 31, 2010 1:52:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
yaserbigchair wrote:
DEAR FRIENDS,

I BELIEVE THE FOLLOWING STOCKS TO BE SOLD BEFORE 15TH DECEMBER. ONE CAN TAKE UPTO 5% LOSS IF HE HAS TO. THEN I WILL TELL YOU WHICH STOCKS TO BUY FOR THE NEXT PERIOD. THESE ARE:-

1. KPLC - ANYWAY I AM SURE YOU WILL GET SOMETHING FROM IT BUT SELL IT ON MONDAY @22.5 OR 24 BEFORE THE CLOSURE OF THAT DAY. AND @20.5 - 21 ON TUESDAY. BEFORE IT GOES BELOW 19.5.


@YBC whats not happening? We've been waiting for ages for the stock to hit below 19.5 so that we can buy....

But anyway I can't really blame you... You're analysis stinks of baboon in it...

Just wait for January and then you'll see where KPLC will be trading at
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#310 Posted : Friday, December 31, 2010 3:00:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Averaging 24.25 at the close of trading, the stock has not only defied kiti kubwa but has posted a cool 6.59% rise to top the list of gainers today!
Looking forward to a Great 2011 for KPLC!
@SufficientlyP
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