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Wazuans, please explain this Facebook value madness!
KenyanLyrics
#1 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 1:13:51 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
Twitter, a company that hasn't even figured out it's revenue model yet, is being valued at 4 BILLION dollars?!

http://techcrunch.com/20...ently-in-pole-position/

Facebook valued at 50 billion dollars, yet only managed a purported 1 billion dollars in total revenues.

http://techcrunch.com/20...n-in-secondary-trading/

Now Wazuans, I don't understand the nitty gritty on stocks, but my elementary financial knowledge tells me that this is just plain insane! How do these Western tech companies arrive at such billion dollar valuations, surely?
BGL
#2 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 2:10:18 AM
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Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
The potential of converting traffic into cash.
Let me explain and take Wazua.co.ke as a case study. Supposing 10,000 PERSONS log into wazua to check the free live data stream and an additional 40,000 guests do the same 5days in a week. Assuming that 1/3 the total visitors can pay a premium for a more live data streaming after a 10 day no strings attached period. The 2/3 who wont pay for anything can keep posting and directing traffic to the site while the paying 1/3 receive data depending on what they are paying for instance(First class - may be 100 vertical lines of trades, Business class (50) or Economy class(10) with the charges pegged on the service you receive.
That just an example...........

The problem is that many people here have internalised that Wazua is a free to air channel and has to transmit a signal as long as there is no black out.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
fantony
#3 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 6:17:06 AM
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Joined: 11/6/2006
Posts: 276
Why don't you take off some time this weekend and watch the movie called 'Social Network'?

It is about the set up of facebook and the intrinsic matters that go into the product/company.

I would not argue with the facebook valuation.. twitter too
sizzla
#4 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 7:07:33 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/10/2006
Posts: 201
Location: Nairobi
Google plans to acquire a company known as Groupon for $6B. It is a tech start-up owned by a 30 year old that sells discount coupons through online media. The total investment in the company amounts to only about $140m. Even the international financial pundits don't get this math but Google insists the information about customer trends and patterns is what makes this company so valuable.
sparkly
#5 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 7:10:01 AM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
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Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Another bubble in the making. Facebook has a clickthrough rate (CTR) of 0.04% meaning that a user will click on an advert 400 times for every 1 million pages visited. Google has a CTR of 8%. Average for large websites is 0.2%. For a company whose major source of revenue is ad sales, this is very low. Revenues are unlikely to grow fast enough to justify the valuation. Its now more of the greater fool theory.
Life is short. Live passionately.
bird_man
#6 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 7:49:30 AM
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Joined: 11/2/2006
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Location: Nairobi
I wouldnt call it a bubble.The potential that those companies have is amazing.Look around,everyone is logged into facebook.Its just a matter of time before someone who has figured a way of converting such traffic into cash comes along and buys it.So why would you sell it for peanuts?The intangible goodwill is what makes it so expensive.
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
McReggae
#7 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 8:37:39 AM
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Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
It's been long since I walked into a cyber cafe' but last weekend when I did, more than 90% of the users were logged into facebook.......
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
Sober
#8 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 9:20:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
McReggae wrote:
It's been long since I walked into a cyber cafe' but last weekend when I did, more than 90% of the users were logged into facebook.......

People who in to the cyber cafe to Facebook are either idlers or low end users. Its far much cheaper and time rating by login using my phone and only in to the cyber when I'm doing big volumes of data.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Sober
#9 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 9:25:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
McReggae wrote:
It's been long since I walked into a cyber cafe' but last weekend when I did, more than 90% of the users were logged into facebook.......

People who in to the cyber cafe to Facebook are either idlers or low end users. Its far much cheaper and time rating by login using my phone and only in to the cyber when I'm doing big volumes of data.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
KenyanLyrics
#10 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 10:15:04 AM
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Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
I see many Wazuans are being sucked into the madness as well! Any business owner can talk a good talk about potential earnings and what not, but as long as you have ZERO business(sales) like Twitter, then you are worth ZERO. OK, so consumer interest counts for something, but definitely not 4billion dollars!
As for Facebook hype, it also has to be understood that what they are trying to do is advertise to people during communication, which is very intrusive no matter how you spin it, which is why their CTR is so low despite the intense targeting of FB ads.
Bottom line is, its all hype till a company proves itself. Buy into the hype alone and you create a bubble; real money supporting cleverly disguised debt
tkzee
#11 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 10:39:24 AM
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Joined: 7/13/2010
Posts: 160
Location: rift Valley-Naks
sparkly wrote:
Another bubble in the making. Facebook has a clickthrough rate (CTR) of 0.04% meaning that a user will click on an advert 400 times for every 1 million pages visited. Google has a CTR of 8%. Average for large websites is 0.2%. For a company whose major source of revenue is ad sales, this is very low. Revenues are unlikely to grow fast enough to justify the valuation. Its now more of the greater fool theory.

I totally agree with you.May be a ''social network bubble''only time will tell whether its
irrationality.
''i can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies,but not the madness of people''-Isaac Newton
bird_man
#12 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 10:58:41 AM
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Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
"Buy into the hype alone and you create a bubble; real money supporting cleverly disguised debt"

@KenyanLyrics, I think that is one way of looking at it and you could be right.However,note that Facebook is not just a software/website;it's an idea.There are venture capitalists in Silicon Valley ready to buy into ideas.Reason?They know that the site has millions of users, once they get the money making formula right,billions will trickle in very fast like in the case of Google.It is probably easier to buy it off now with all those customers & "potential" than try creating your own site and hope to make more than Facebook in future.

Your site could be making more than Wazua.co.ke right now......but which one would you bid for at a higher price?smile
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
KenyanLyrics
#13 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 11:27:15 AM
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Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
@Bird_man that's why I tried to highlight the point of the nature of the users. Facebook is essentially a communication network. It is therefore borderline offensive to try and advertise to them. Imagine having adverts running sometime during a phone call, or ads on a letter. Madness!
In the case of Twitter, this is a company that makes zero money! I don't mean 'little money' or 'insignificant amounts.' I mean ZERO. How can any sane investor draw a billion dollar valuation from that? More Madness!
Now comes a company called Groupon. After 3years of business, users are only in the hundreds of thousands, but sales are in the hundreds of millions! Google comes along and says "we'll give you 5 billion dala for a piece of the cake." That's real business.
Stealth
#14 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 11:27:21 AM
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Joined: 5/3/2010
Posts: 145
Location: East Africa
starting to look like the dot com bubble all over again. only time will tell.
anasazi
#15 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:08:50 PM
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Joined: 6/8/2007
Posts: 675
Well, Twitter plans to make money using promoted tweets. I've already been seeing the promoted tweets, so don't say they're making Zero! Making money via Social is very difficult, though.. because the main reason they're there... as KenyanLyrics says, is to communicate!
Form is temporary, class is permanent
KenyanLyrics
#16 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 1:54:53 PM
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Joined: 4/16/2010
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Location: Nairobi
anasazi wrote:
Well, Twitter plans to make money using promoted tweets. I've already been seeing the promoted tweets, so don't say they're making Zero! Making money via Social is very difficult, though.. because the main reason they're there... as KenyanLyrics says, is to communicate!

Making money = profit. Twitter are in the red, and have always been. That single promoted tweet is not going to pay for 300 employees salaries, or even pay for this place:

http://techcrunch.com/20...-by-employees-pictures/

bird_man
#17 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 2:16:03 PM
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Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
@KenyanLyrics,some companies can make a loss for 10yrs but recover in 2yrs."Potential" is very important and that is what separates a regular investor and a venture capitalist.

The employees are being paid using funds from Venture Capitalists.And those venture capitalists are not dumb,they most likely see what the future has in store.Google is most likely making losses from products such as GoogleMaps,Google Docs,Chrome etc....but they are still producing them.Same case back here in Kenya,Nation Media could be making losses on Taifa Leo,K24 could be making losses from The People newspaper,Radio Africa could be making losses on The Star.....
But some people are brave enough to venture into an idea with "potential".And if all goes right, they become instant billionaires.It is all a matter of time. I'm sure 15yrs ago people would say "it's very difficult to make money from search business"......the same way we now say it's "hard to make money from social media".
Just my thoughts though, I'm not saying that I'm an authority.
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
Mercie
#18 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 5:56:06 PM
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Joined: 2/4/2009
Posts: 42
The notion that online social networks will make money selling adverts or products is missing the entire value proposition of a social network. The real opportunity is in harnessing the rich data that is created by those participating in conversations and interacting with each other.

The model itself may not be complex, the network could commercialize the value of the data by aggregating and anonymizing it, and then find third parties that benefit from, and are willing to pay for the rich data created by the community.
Go borrow vessels!
smooth
#19 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 6:53:36 PM
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Joined: 10/26/2007
Posts: 31
While social networks are growing others are growing on their backs, so in away a company should identify how the network can be of an advantage to itself. an example is skype . I downloaded the new version of skype and it has a tab for facebook on which one access news feeds (with options of sms and calls) . beside this is a phone book and you get access to all your friends phone numbers on facebook and thus if you want to call anyone .. all you need is buy credit from skype and call from your desk.

True, social networks or sites like google are making money from reselling their data from those who use it . Facebook currently is the number 1 website in the world and has attracted many big wigs wishing to have a small stake in it. Still like Mark's wish that he holds a big share and control of Facebook.



KenyanLyrics
#20 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 11:02:44 PM
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Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
smooth wrote:
...Facebook currently is the number 1 website in the world ...


In terms of traffic, Google is the biggest website, by an infinite distance, followed by Facebook, then Yahoo

In terms of profitability, Google is yet again the biggest by an infinite distance, then Yahoo and Amazon

Now back on topic...
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