kizee1 wrote:applebees
how likely is it that things will turn out Ok? as in no fighting and a peaceful referendum?
that's a tall order, but the war weary top guys really would not like another war, especially those who have been enjoying 'peace dividends' i.e good cash (enough to buy a family house in NBO or KLA). Those who have enjoyed during the past 5 years will really try to avoid getting back to war. Those who have not benefited, who normally see Kenyans, Ugandans or Dinkas as those who have gained at their expense will lose nothing should the war be called. The only good thing is that they may not have strong generals.
In any case, a friend confided that should there be any war with the North, this time it will be fought in Khartoum (of course this will be deadly because those daring Dafurians from the West will also join in, as well as the disgruntled Kasalans in the East. The worst case whould be having the war along the borders esp contested areas of Abyei, South Kordofan and Blue Nile.
Whatever the outcome, there'll be big business in South Sudan next year. If peaceful separation, a good business climate will be created- EABL, Co-op, Nakumatt etc will join in. Uganda govt will also be constructing market stalls in every Southern town (most market traders are Ugandans).
If the separation is through UDI or contested and this leads to war, well, emergency NGOs will take charge. They will still need supplies of food, clothing, evacuation/hibernation items etc. High risks will mean high returns