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Deacons IPO.. public share offer?
My 2 cents
#51 Posted : Thursday, November 18, 2010 4:22:30 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,089
Exactly who will they sell 2B worth of goods to?
Gordon Gekko
#52 Posted : Thursday, November 18, 2010 4:45:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Who remembers that Anglo African IPO that was being peddled by that KANU hawk Jared sometime back? I can see so many similarities with this one - rushed issuance, crash period, no adverts etc. But at least that one had brick and mortar in form of the Mall hi hiko na fashion tu, can you take that to the bank unless it is D&G?
newfarer
#53 Posted : Thursday, November 18, 2010 5:07:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2010
Posts: 3,505
Location: Uganda
This one is an insult to the NSE.

Did I see Kirimara Limited 1,999,273 10.19%
punda amecheka
sheep
#54 Posted : Thursday, November 18, 2010 5:47:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Kifo investments.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
muganda
#55 Posted : Thursday, November 18, 2010 6:46:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
@mainat long time; @surealligator sure stuff!
Forgive ignorance in my thoughts...

So it seems the IPO is to finance more growth, perhaps also reduce 86m in short term borrowings + 195m in trade payables.

I see Kibaki having 12% through Pinpoint Investment. Happy to see Diana Bird former MD having 11% and Muchiri Wahome 4%.

The full offer represents 39.5% of Deacons. Old share holders are left with 60%.



Business shows gross profit margin of 45% in a bid to recurit more middle class (LSM 8) customers. Net profit margin of ~6%.

Past EPS: 4.06 and Forecast EPS: 7.59
Implied PE: 15.41x and Forecast: 8.23x
Past DPS: 1.79

Tanzania is tough market - losses. In Business Daily graphic, I see Truworths+Woolworths with about 60% major contributor. Reality seems Deacons presently earns most from 6% Kenya - Women in upper class. New entrants Adidas and Life Fitness are the only ones perhaps touching men more...


Ebb and Flow
I must confess I've had personal turmoil when it comes to investing. At the time of KCB Rights Issue, a mass market financial company with regional presence at a P/E of 9.2, I thought myself smart to say NO. Lately I think my decision was right but timing wrong.

Here we have a commercial brand/retail company, targeted at premium customers, forecasting to grow sales at 40% and EPS by 80% (through operating leverage). To trade OTC so I need to wait until NSE blast!

I wonder, what's Jubilee's forecasted growth rate and should I buy more of that instead? If I looked at Diamond Trust Bank, I wouldn't budge.
Decisions, decisions...I've always had a thing for fashion!


VituVingiSana
#56 Posted : Friday, November 19, 2010 12:34:13 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
So who are the real owners?

@muganda says kibaki + family [the original] has 10% thru Pinpoint. Who are the others?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sizzla
#57 Posted : Friday, November 19, 2010 7:04:44 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/10/2006
Posts: 201
Location: Nairobi
As per Surealligator's post:

Current shareholding No. Of Shares %age Shareholding
Swedefund International Aktiebolag 3,816,225 19.45%
Pinpoint Investment Limited 2,365,940 12.06%
Charles Mwangi Gathuri 2,165,940 11.04%
Diana Bird 2,165,642 11.04%
Kirimara Limited 1,999,273 10.19%
Trikay Development 1,717,273 8.75%
Aureos East Africa Fund LLC 1,382,667 7.05%
Muchiri Wahome 778,672 3.97%
Subtotal 16,391,632 83.54%
Others 3,229,965 16.46%
19,621,597 100.00%
guru267
#58 Posted : Friday, November 19, 2010 7:10:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Olympia recently forecast sales of 1billion for the year ended 28 feb 2010 and they only produced 600 million....

Unless a company has a proven track record in forecasting its hard to believe their rosy picture they are painting
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
erifloss
#59 Posted : Friday, November 19, 2010 7:51:49 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
I've realised a commonality on most IPO's, they all put an emphasis on their profitability and their prospects of growth in terms of sales. They give rosy pictures through profitability & sales ratios but what investors tend to forget while reading these prospectus during this era of increasing shareholders wealth is that the strength of the balance sheet is what helps in profitability and reservation of shareholders wealth. Check on their debts & asset base carefully & perform some ratio analysis too
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
madebe
#60 Posted : Friday, November 19, 2010 8:16:04 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/7/2010
Posts: 251
Location: nairobi
please send me the prospectus davidwkiboi@yahoo.com
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