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KQ in 2010-11 (Boom, Bust or Blah)
PKoli
#451 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 4:55:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
the deal wrote:
PKoli wrote:
the deal wrote:
[quote
Impressive results indeed...the shares should rally...i expect an EPS of 3.5 if my calculations save me right...

EPS is 3.11 i'm a genious.


That was very close. Expecting FY EPS 6.5 we should see KQ soaring to 65 bob. People should be seating on potential 50% upsurge


I think FY EPS of 6.5 is too conservative...i think they will do more than that cos historically KQ always performs better in the 2nd half remember holiday season is in the 2nd half...tickets are always at a premium...management is also very bullish about the 2H...a bonus is those toxic hedges have expired...hence they expect to save on their fuel costs...i expect a FY EPS of 7.5-8.5...that gives an upside of 60-100% on the current price at a conservative forward PE of 10...the risks being the strike, high oil prices...[/quote]


Then we could easily expect 100% upsurge. This tempts me to have 40% of my portfolio in KQ. I will then distribute the rest to KCB, CFC, CIC, MSC and KPLC.
moneydust
#452 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 5:16:30 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
The hedges r goin to do them in once again..watch out..
the deal
#453 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 5:35:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
moneydust wrote:
The hedges r goin to do them in once again..watch out..

The hedges have expired...overall KQ vowed not to hedge 100% of their fuel again...check reuters...or refer to my earlier posts...but you can always stay out if dont believe wat the KQ bosses said.
VituVingiSana
#454 Posted : Sunday, November 07, 2010 5:52:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
The hedges have NOT expired...

The hedges remain in place but there was a 'provision/charge' against profits as shown in 'Other Comprehensive Income/Loss'...

If the Oil Prices remain where they are, KQ will have a good 2H (from current indications) but the hedges will eat into the cash as they need to be paid off...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#455 Posted : Sunday, November 14, 2010 11:54:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
http://www.businessdaily.../-/bxdurfz/-/index.html

KQ workers told to can it... for now...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#456 Posted : Monday, November 15, 2010 8:06:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I hope that this makes the union give up. Kq cant afford to increase wages again, it'll hurt the margins again.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#457 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 6:51:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
KQ. Is trading huge volumes of late. Today 1.7m traded, is the share looking for direction, if institutions are indeed leaving, wonder why they would do so after such good results and future prospects ie fy 2010-11.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwanahisa
#458 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 7:27:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Aguytrying wrote:
KQ. Is trading huge volumes of late. Today 1.7m traded, is the share looking for direction, if institutions are indeed leaving, wonder why they would do so after such good results and future prospects ie fy 2010-11.


What drives you to the conclusion that institutions are leaving? Do you have any data for this? As far as I could tell today it was one group of Foreigners selling to another. And as always, if there is a buyer, you should also ask the question - what is it they are seeing that the sellers are not?

Having said that, it is not unusual for a share to dip only for it to move up later. The problem with most of us investors is that we are too concerned with day-to-day movements. BTW, on Nov 16 2009, KQ was trading at Kshs 27.75.
Aguytrying
#459 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 10:23:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@mwanahisa. i dont have any evidence its institutions, the large volumes made me think so. Your intel is better. That year on year share price. Very interesting. And i hope history repeats itself-if you know what i mean.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#460 Posted : Wednesday, November 17, 2010 12:01:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Folks... Don't worry AS LONG AS KQ PERFORMS...
IMHO, they are doing OK... Flights are running with moderate-high PLFs...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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