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Mumias leaves a bad taste in investors mouths
mv_ufanisi
#31 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 9:38:46 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Mumias is giving people a bloody nose. Ikienda below 9 that will be a KO. Referee is counting 1.. 2.. 3... Mumias itaamka ama this is game over?
Njung'e
#32 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 10:55:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
More blood needed.below 9 get in big time


Laughing out loudly ....Go son.I am not a prophet but my estimate is that they will miss first half targets by close to 15K tonnes.What would that do to PBT?
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
mwanahisa
#33 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 11:17:39 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Njung'e - you are the expert on this one. Do tell us what you reckon to be the impact. What are their targets for H1 sugar production? Are they above last year's actuals?
Njung'e
#34 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 12:21:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Mwanahisa,
The answer is as above and i am thinking it's even possible to calculate a close estimate of PBT.....what was the figure for last FY first half?
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
stocksguru7
#35 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 12:25:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/28/2007
Posts: 38
very strange behaviour by the share price whats going on ANYONE ???
UN PACTUM UN DICTUM
Wiztec
#36 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 1:11:18 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/22/2008
Posts: 87
Annoying share indeed, i have about 56700 of MSC shares bought at 9 bob, should i sell off now and take off or waite till march? what do you guys think...well i was waiting to sell off at 18 crap but you know the story.. i watched it go past 15 and i was so happy and now...hahaha may be i just waitye alittle longer
Wa_ithaka
#37 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 1:46:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
The price movement (once you remove the dividend bit) doesn't make sense unless things are that dire.

Sugar prices are at a record high which means Mumias should be passing on some of this to chai drinkers
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
guru267
#38 Posted : Thursday, November 11, 2010 5:12:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Wa_ithaka wrote:
The price movement (once you remove the dividend bit) doesn't make sense unless things are that dire.


@Wa_ithaka things are that dire... Investors buy a share based on its ability ti grow EPS... At the moment I dont see which investor could see MSC growing its earnings... Infact over the next three years i see MSC's EPS either stagnating or reducing...

Since they said that they would raise Half of the capital for the ethanol prject through equity then investors must be speculating a rights issue in the offing...

I would only put in a buy order for this compnay if it went to 8 shillings or below for the long term because of the dividend yield but no other reason
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#39 Posted : Thursday, November 11, 2010 9:59:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@njunge - For MSC, being 'short' 15k tons shouldn't be a huge dent in revenues or earnings but still not a good sign unless the target was very high...

The bigger question is about 2012 when the COMESA safeguard are lifted... Can Mumias compete?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#40 Posted : Thursday, November 11, 2010 1:51:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Njung'e wrote:
@Mwanahisa,
The answer is as above and i am thinking it's even possible to calculate a close estimate of PBT.....what was the figure for last FY first half?


Njung'e, please stop being cryptic and give us the target figures. This will enable us all make a better informed decision.

I have to say you sound decidedly bearish, so, I guess that's a warning to all of us.

As for last year (H1 2009-10), MSC produced 123,183 tonnes, 18% higher than the previous corresponding half while sales were 117,081 tonnes against 109,538, a 7% jump.
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