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Kenya Airways: Stock to watch...
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moneydust
#81 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 4:05:20 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
I attended the Investor Briefing and interestingly the cash flow hedges did not feature in the presentation. The fuel derivatives were a small loss and the Chairman was really happy with the fact that they had gotten a handle on these.

I am trying to establish what is the nature of the cash flow hedges to determine what is the likely position at the end of the year.

As I had predicted, operating profits were really good, so that was a positive outcome at least.
If KQ wanted to pay off (terminate) the hedges as of 30 Sep 2010, they would have had to pay the 'loss' as shown in the Comprehensive Income...

Of course, this 'deficit' could increase/decrease based on the Fuel prices as these Hedges come due...

@VVS The hedges in question are not on fuel but on their foreign currency denominated obligations....for fuel hedges, as per their hf yr briefing the management have the matter under control.
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VituVingiSana
#82 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 6:01:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
moneydust wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
I attended the Investor Briefing and interestingly the cash flow hedges did not feature in the presentation. The fuel derivatives were a small loss and the Chairman was really happy with the fact that they had gotten a handle on these.

I am trying to establish what is the nature of the cash flow hedges to determine what is the likely position at the end of the year.

As I had predicted, operating profits were really good, so that was a positive outcome at least.
If KQ wanted to pay off (terminate) the hedges as of 30 Sep 2010, they would have had to pay the 'loss' as shown in the Comprehensive Income...

Of course, this 'deficit' could increase/decrease based on the Fuel prices as these Hedges come due...

@VVS The hedges in question are not on fuel but on their foreign currency denominated obligations....for fuel hedges, as per their hf yr briefing the management have the matter under control.
Hmmm... the Presentation says 'cashflow' hedges not forex hedges...

If KQ were to hedge forex it would be against a weaker KES (or stronger $) not a strong KES or weaker US$...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#83 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 9:13:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Guys today I've done a comprehensive research on KQ based on the Half year financials and commentary...

At these levels KQ is a GREAT BUY so investors should not give a damn whether its going up or not right now all they should know is that the price will follo these results eventually...

These are a few areas I found positive.
1. Positive cashflows
2. Forward P/E of 7-8
3. Price to book of 0.9
4. Economic growth and tourism growth
5. Fair management of derivatives

Though they were 2 MAIN negatives that could be responsible for the price stagnation.
1. Fairly poor dividend yield of 2.2%
2. The economic stimulus in the USA will lead to the weakening of the dollar hence hurting their revenues


But on a risk reward analysis KQ looks like a buy to me... IMHO

p.s I do not own any KQ so research is unbiased
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#84 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 9:19:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Guys today I've done a comprehensive research on KQ based on the Half year financials and commentary...

At these levels KQ is a GREAT BUY so investors should not give a damn whether its going up or not right now all they should know is that the price will follo these results eventually...

These are a few areas I found positive.
1. Positive cashflows
2. Forward P/E of 7-8
3. Price to book of 0.9
4. Economic growth and tourism growth
5. Fair management of derivatives

Though they were 2 MAIN negatives that could be responsible for the price stagnation.
1. Fairly poor dividend yield of 2.2%
2. The economic stimulus in the USA will lead to the weakening of the dollar hence hurting their revenues


But on a risk reward analysis KQ looks like a buy to me... IMHO

p.s I do not own any KQ so research is unbiased
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Aguytrying
#85 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 10:17:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@guru. You r a great stock picker. I dont know how you do it, but ur good. The day ill sell my kq shares will be the end of an era. I cant wait.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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ProverB
#86 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 7:30:12 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
msafiri wrote:
..Kenya Airways: Stock to watch...


and we are still watching. Bytheway..msafiri..why the name? KQ used the same name alternately on tweeter..coincidence? just asking.
..i could be wrong.

And on other news..

@Guru267..nicely done.
nevertheless.. i keep watching.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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sparkly
#87 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 8:14:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Their margins are so poor... Profitability will never be consistent
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Pierce
#88 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 8:41:49 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
@Guru,

Personally I think the low dividend yield is almost solely responsible for the 'stagnation' in share price
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mlennyma
#89 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 8:51:40 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
This guys are good dividend payers wacha rako.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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the deal
#90 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 9:00:24 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I blame it on the Insititutional investors....who have decided to exit at the wrong time...this is a big risk to the NSE...once the foreigners exit the NSE will rock.
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