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moving average
lovely2010
#1 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 8:47:37 PM
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Location: nairobi
I found the following info but need more clarification if it works and if I can find nse sources on this topic.

Moving averages are one of the oldest and most popular technical analysis tool. This section describes the basic of moving average and interpretation.
Nowadays you get moving averages readily available on most of the websites.
To brief you moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices of a stock for most recent 15 days and then dividing by 15 the result what you get is the 15 day moving average.

How to trade on moving average
Suppose If the stock price is above its 25 day moving average, it means that investor's current expectations (the current price of the stock) are higher than their average expectations over the last 25 days, and that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on this stock and result is that the stock price may go up.
Conversely, if today's price is below then its 25 day moving average, it shows that current expectations are below average expectations over the last 25 days and this may bring stock price lower.
The moving average is used to observe changes in prices. Investors typically buy when a stock price rises above its moving average and sell when the price falls below its moving average.

mlennyma
#2 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 9:03:27 PM
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Many things are theory not practical...well if it works is a matter of experiment
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
nahdy
#3 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 10:06:24 PM
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for nse, pls dont buy if price is abv d avg as it means
bus has already left...
the deal
#4 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 10:28:05 PM
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@Lovely why dont you apply your formula on KCB and tell us where it's headed.
lovely2010
#5 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 10:55:45 PM
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Well, I read white mans stuff...its weird...its a matter of adding prices for 15 days divide by 15...there...u hav the answer for the following day price on specific counter....
Gordon Gekko
#6 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 11:17:15 PM
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Why 15, why not 14 or 16?
lovely2010
#7 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 11:41:58 PM
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Location: nairobi
thats the way it is. its a formula...you can try it...I hav started with mumias...
alustaadh
#8 Posted : Sunday, November 07, 2010 7:04:49 AM
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moving average is only helpful when one is tracking the performance of a particular counter over a short period of time. it is useful when one is placing a buy or sell order especilly when the market is moving sideways. however it does not replace other analysis tools. personally i prefer tracking a share once it is trading cum dividend then watch it plunge down during the ex dividend stage and buy when it is trading 15% or more bellow the cum dividend price.
It is humiliating to be associated with thieves and murderers.
ndumesidubu
#9 Posted : Sunday, November 07, 2010 9:00:01 AM
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Location: nairobi
Alustaadh i agree with in as far as the moving average not being a replacement of other tools,but that is about it, first of all the longer the period of the moving average the less prone it is to giving false signals, a false signal basically means for example that if you get triggered into the market(buy) when price moves above the moving average then suddenly the price starts moving below the moving average(meaning you are losing). Moving averages are used in several ways ..you can use a crossover technique where you take a short period MA like 10 and a longer period MA say 55 and once they cross each other then you either buy or get out of your position. You can also use a basic "when price moves above or below technique"..the other use of the MA is also for reentry into the market ..for example if you bought KQ at 44 and it rallies to say 66 , when the price moves down to say 55 and touches your MA then you add to your position(buy more) in anticipation of another rally( after the pullback). But the moving average is by far not the only technique you need to succeed , you can add an oscillator like a stochastic or RSI which basically shows you if the market is tired (overbought) or bottomed (oversold), or use momentum indicators like Momentum and Average True Range, to show you the strength/weakness of the rally.
Using indicators alone might not be the best strategy though , from my experience , you need to understand the fundamentals both internal (company) and external(economy) to be able to make an informed decision whether to enter or exit the market. Hope this helps.
"Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process."
Benjamin Graham
sheep
#10 Posted : Sunday, November 07, 2010 10:15:47 AM
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200 day moving average is very important as it shows the average prices for almost the last one year....10 and 20 day oscillate too much and may not give the accurate picture....concentrate on the big moves,thats where the money is.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
guru267
#11 Posted : Sunday, November 07, 2010 9:53:16 PM
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mlennyma wrote:
Many things are theory not practical...well if it works is a matter of experiment



@mlennyma i totally agree with you. This method was used by @qw when he was shouting for us to buy mumias at 12bob "support"... I think we all know where mumias is now smile


There is no method of trading stocks more useful than information and investor sentiment.. these two factors trounce completely on all other methods

I personally have never used moving averages in my stock picking since I consider it a method for speculators
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mukiha
#12 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:06:54 AM
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lovely2010 wrote:
Well, I read white mans stuff...its weird...its a matter of adding prices for 15 days divide by 15...there...u hav the answer for the following day price on specific counter....

If only life was that easy!!!

What is the 15-day moving average of Eaagads? Now that it is clear they have nothing to do with Tatu, do you honestly expect the price today to be equal to the average of the last 15 days?

And another thing; if that theory were true, then when a price starts going up, it would never come down, ever! And if it starts going down, it would never go up for ever!

The problem with this type of analysis is that it assumes that price move at random and therefore one can apply probability and statistics to predict future movements.

Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#13 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:14:20 AM
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...think about this one; a teacher notices that one student has missed 15 out of the last 20 lessons. what is the probability that the student will miss the next lesson?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
ProverB
#14 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:16:05 AM
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@lovely.. u cannot use one moving average.. Moving average just tracks trend of share price.. better use of it is when you use probably 3.. 200 day, 50 day and 20 day.. chart them together..200 day gives you price trend on scale of larger economic factors..

..shorter period Moving averages help u narrow down on "possible" forward trend.. if 20 day M.A cuts up 50 day..and 200 day is moving up..likely to see further up of the price..and vice verser.. "CETERIS PARIBUS"

..(that is as long us the directors don't issue a statement on friday when market is closed like eaagards have done).. smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
ProverB
#15 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:21:00 AM
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mukiha wrote:
...think about this one; a teacher notices that one student has missed 15 out of the last 20 lessons. what is the probability that the student will miss the next lesson?


Mukiha..if all factors at play to make the student miss class in the 1st place are still in force.. and nothing material has changed..eg he's run out of weed or has gotten well enuf to go to school..etc..or even the "gay lecturer has stopped pursuing him.. ya!..if all those factors are as they were on at first.. he will"probably" miss the next one.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mukiha
#16 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:42:00 AM
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ProverB wrote:
mukiha wrote:
...think about this one; a teacher notices that one student has missed 15 out of the last 20 lessons. what is the probability that the student will miss the next lesson?


Mukiha..if all factors at play to make the student miss class in the 1st place are still in force.. and nothing material has changed..eg he's run out of weed or has gotten well enuf to go to school..etc..or even the "gay lecturer has stopped pursuing him.. ya!..if all those factors are as they were on at first.. he will"probably" miss the next one.

How much "probably"? Give a specific value of probability...10%?, 25%?, 60%?, what?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
ProverB
#17 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:50:26 AM
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mukiha wrote:
[quote=ProverB][
How much "probably"? Give a specific value of probability...10%?, 25%?, 60%?, what?


That is precisely what am alluding to. Moving averages just mirror trends!..they do not "foretell" the price to accuracy..just that all other factors remaining constant, whatever has been happening will continue happening unless a compelling influencing variable be altered.

In case of share..any factor affecting price.

The specific valuation of that probability..in stocks..involves inter play of technical analysis tools.. fibbonacci..retrace levels blah blah blah..which u can tel..i know little about..

Moving averages are just trend followers..interpretations of those trends goes with your school of thought..whichever it may be. as the saying goes..u can prove anything with numbers.. the likes of QW, Mwanahisa, Hisah have a better grasp of these.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mukiha
#18 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 10:14:57 AM
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@ProverB: the answer is simple, really... the possible outcomes are (1) he will miss next lesson, (2) he will not miss next lesson.

There is no other possible outcome!

Therefore, the probability that he will miss the next lesson is 50%!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
ProverB
#19 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 10:23:16 AM
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mukiha wrote:
@ProverB: the answer is simple, really... the possible outcomes are (1) he will miss next lesson, (2) he will not miss next lesson.

There is no other possible outcome!

Therefore, the probability that he will miss the next lesson is 50%!


He might also come mid way the lesson with the parent!..

..or the teacher might be called to the principlals's office to sort the issue..parent-errant/innocent teacher-principal-innocent/errant student meeting!..end resume class late..

..or even come toward class end..to jubilation of the teacher..star student has finally gotten bursary to resume school!

..or he might sneak into class..and teacher notices him..hardly 5 minutes later afkuzwe!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mukiha
#20 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 10:31:26 AM
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Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
ProverB wrote:
mukiha wrote:
@ProverB: the answer is simple, really... the possible outcomes are (1) he will miss next lesson, (2) he will not miss next lesson.

There is no other possible outcome!

Therefore, the probability that he will miss the next lesson is 50%!


He might also come mid way the lesson with the parent!..

..or the teacher might be called to the principlals's office to sort the issue..parent-errant/innocent teacher-principal-innocent/errant student meeting!..end resume class late..

..or even come toward class end..to jubilation of the teacher..star student has finally gotten bursary to resume school!

..or he might sneak into class..and teacher notices him..hardly 5 minutes later afkuzwe!

@Lovely2010: I hope you are reading this...
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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