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guru267
#11 Posted : Sunday, November 07, 2010 9:53:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Many things are theory not practical...well if it works is a matter of experiment



@mlennyma i totally agree with you. This method was used by @qw when he was shouting for us to buy mumias at 12bob "support"... I think we all know where mumias is now smile


There is no method of trading stocks more useful than information and investor sentiment.. these two factors trounce completely on all other methods

I personally have never used moving averages in my stock picking since I consider it a method for speculators
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mukiha
#12 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:06:54 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
lovely2010 wrote:
Well, I read white mans stuff...its weird...its a matter of adding prices for 15 days divide by 15...there...u hav the answer for the following day price on specific counter....

If only life was that easy!!!

What is the 15-day moving average of Eaagads? Now that it is clear they have nothing to do with Tatu, do you honestly expect the price today to be equal to the average of the last 15 days?

And another thing; if that theory were true, then when a price starts going up, it would never come down, ever! And if it starts going down, it would never go up for ever!

The problem with this type of analysis is that it assumes that price move at random and therefore one can apply probability and statistics to predict future movements.

Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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mukiha
#13 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:14:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
...think about this one; a teacher notices that one student has missed 15 out of the last 20 lessons. what is the probability that the student will miss the next lesson?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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ProverB
#14 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:16:05 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
@lovely.. u cannot use one moving average.. Moving average just tracks trend of share price.. better use of it is when you use probably 3.. 200 day, 50 day and 20 day.. chart them together..200 day gives you price trend on scale of larger economic factors..

..shorter period Moving averages help u narrow down on "possible" forward trend.. if 20 day M.A cuts up 50 day..and 200 day is moving up..likely to see further up of the price..and vice verser.. "CETERIS PARIBUS"

..(that is as long us the directors don't issue a statement on friday when market is closed like eaagards have done).. smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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ProverB
#15 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:21:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mukiha wrote:
...think about this one; a teacher notices that one student has missed 15 out of the last 20 lessons. what is the probability that the student will miss the next lesson?


Mukiha..if all factors at play to make the student miss class in the 1st place are still in force.. and nothing material has changed..eg he's run out of weed or has gotten well enuf to go to school..etc..or even the "gay lecturer has stopped pursuing him.. ya!..if all those factors are as they were on at first.. he will"probably" miss the next one.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, November 08, 2010 9:22 AM | Reason: Not specified
mukiha
#16 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:42:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
ProverB wrote:
mukiha wrote:
...think about this one; a teacher notices that one student has missed 15 out of the last 20 lessons. what is the probability that the student will miss the next lesson?


Mukiha..if all factors at play to make the student miss class in the 1st place are still in force.. and nothing material has changed..eg he's run out of weed or has gotten well enuf to go to school..etc..or even the "gay lecturer has stopped pursuing him.. ya!..if all those factors are as they were on at first.. he will"probably" miss the next one.

How much "probably"? Give a specific value of probability...10%?, 25%?, 60%?, what?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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ProverB
#17 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 9:50:26 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mukiha wrote:
[quote=ProverB][
How much "probably"? Give a specific value of probability...10%?, 25%?, 60%?, what?


That is precisely what am alluding to. Moving averages just mirror trends!..they do not "foretell" the price to accuracy..just that all other factors remaining constant, whatever has been happening will continue happening unless a compelling influencing variable be altered.

In case of share..any factor affecting price.

The specific valuation of that probability..in stocks..involves inter play of technical analysis tools.. fibbonacci..retrace levels blah blah blah..which u can tel..i know little about..

Moving averages are just trend followers..interpretations of those trends goes with your school of thought..whichever it may be. as the saying goes..u can prove anything with numbers.. the likes of QW, Mwanahisa, Hisah have a better grasp of these.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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mukiha
#18 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 10:14:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@ProverB: the answer is simple, really... the possible outcomes are (1) he will miss next lesson, (2) he will not miss next lesson.

There is no other possible outcome!

Therefore, the probability that he will miss the next lesson is 50%!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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ProverB
#19 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 10:23:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mukiha wrote:
@ProverB: the answer is simple, really... the possible outcomes are (1) he will miss next lesson, (2) he will not miss next lesson.

There is no other possible outcome!

Therefore, the probability that he will miss the next lesson is 50%!


He might also come mid way the lesson with the parent!..

..or the teacher might be called to the principlals's office to sort the issue..parent-errant/innocent teacher-principal-innocent/errant student meeting!..end resume class late..

..or even come toward class end..to jubilation of the teacher..star student has finally gotten bursary to resume school!

..or he might sneak into class..and teacher notices him..hardly 5 minutes later afkuzwe!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, November 08, 2010 10:25 AM | Reason: Not specified
mukiha
#20 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 10:31:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
ProverB wrote:
mukiha wrote:
@ProverB: the answer is simple, really... the possible outcomes are (1) he will miss next lesson, (2) he will not miss next lesson.

There is no other possible outcome!

Therefore, the probability that he will miss the next lesson is 50%!


He might also come mid way the lesson with the parent!..

..or the teacher might be called to the principlals's office to sort the issue..parent-errant/innocent teacher-principal-innocent/errant student meeting!..end resume class late..

..or even come toward class end..to jubilation of the teacher..star student has finally gotten bursary to resume school!

..or he might sneak into class..and teacher notices him..hardly 5 minutes later afkuzwe!

@Lovely2010: I hope you are reading this...
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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