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I WONNA SELL KENYARE AT A LOSS TO INVEST KPLC
guru267
#11 Posted : Thursday, November 04, 2010 11:34:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@msimon and @mwanahisa you're taking me too seriously...

Its obvious i'm only joking

By the way @msimon your "good" analysis has brought out the fact that its performance compared to the other listed insurance firms is CRAP... So why the hell would any one buy it....

Price to book means nothing when management doesn't unlock value... JUST ASK THE AGRICULTURAL STOCKS...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Bettertry
#12 Posted : Thursday, November 04, 2010 11:47:06 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/19/2010
Posts: 237
Location: Republic of Graham & Doddsville
@Mwanahisa, if am not mistaken l remember reading in another topic of Guru267 saying she owns shares in Kenya-Re, so l think she speaks from experience na machungu. 
We Will Either Find a Way or Create One - HANNIBAL
mkonomtupu
#13 Posted : Thursday, November 04, 2010 11:52:02 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@msimon, you are analysing Kenre like its a bank. Reinsurance business is hard to value. I know a lot of people in insurance who don't understand reinsurance. Kenre may look attractive on current valuations but you need to look at the potential risks and expected payout and then you realise its current value is just fine. There is a reason why its undervalued and a reason why insurance companies don't own so much of it.
mwanahisa
#14 Posted : Thursday, November 04, 2010 12:13:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
guru267 wrote:
@msimon and @mwanahisa you're taking me too seriously...

Its obvious i'm only joking

By the way @msimon your "good" analysis has brought out the fact that its performance compared to the other listed insurance firms is CRAP... So why the hell would any one buy it....

Price to book means nothing when management doesn't unlock value... JUST ASK THE AGRICULTURAL STOCKS...


One way to make money on the market is by identifying shares that are undervalued (using a number of metrics, PER and PBV being some). You can then choose to buy such a counter whenever it looks like it is really oversold.

At some point in the future deep pocketed investors will step in or there may be a change in economic realities that force investors to take a second look. If and when that happens value will be unlocked. Admittedly that requires a lot of patience but eventually you get your just rewards. I have held WTK and Limuru Tea in my portfolio for years and I have no regrets, notwithstanding their low PBV. I also have a few Eaagads, which I will finally be selling after having held them for over 3 years.

I believe KNRE has that potential but will continue to be a laggard until that happens. I hold a very small portion in KNRE, but for the time being to answer the question posed, I could sell it in order to fund KPLC rights if they come in at 18-20 (post split). Once I harvest my profits I would promptly put them back into KNRE and let it continue snoozing. It will wake up some day.
2012
#15 Posted : Thursday, November 04, 2010 12:18:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Only buy Kenya Re for the future yaani buy a lot and forget once a progressive MD is named it will go over the roof. If you are looking for a short term investment go for KK and the likes but you'll not get the returns that you'll get in 10yrs from counters like Kenya Re, KQ and KPLC. Let's catch up in 10yrs.

BBI will solve it
:)
msimon
#16 Posted : Thursday, November 04, 2010 12:21:01 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
mkonomtupu wrote:
@msimon, you are analysing Kenre like its a bank. Reinsurance business is hard to value. I know a lot of people in insurance who don't understand reinsurance. Kenre may look attractive on current valuations but you need to look at the potential risks and expected payout and then you realise its current value is just fine. There is a reason why its undervalued and a reason why insurance companies don't own so much of it.

mkonomtupu...we were taught that every company has a set of variables to consider when estimating value and for insurance, its the float and its cost. Now float isn't something listed in the balance sheet, but the best way we look at it is in the sense of combined ratios and underwriting margins. Thats before considering the other side of the coin(investment income). Now if an insurer can maintain positive underwriting margins consistently(above atleast 4%), thats a good business. there even if they invest in corporate and government debt, they'll do well. kenya Re has show this over and over. So by that, it would mean that they are cheap. And their expansion into the North Africa and Middle east may pay soon. The catch would be them reversing their premiums to be 30% kenya and 70% rest of the world.Sincerely, in due course, companies like these will be targets for corporate raider. we need a 5-10% stake to get a seat on the board and start squeezing management.
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