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I WONNA SELL KENYARE AT A LOSS TO INVEST KPLC
wanyina
#1 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 1:34:56 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/1/2008
Posts: 141
Wazuans please contribute your ideas,im thinking of taking a loss from KenyaRe and spare some money to buy The Kenya power and lighting.Im thinking of getting rid some of government entities stocks after taking a stock of as from 2006 to date ..no progress as in as in share price upwards trend.Look at Kengen it has not moved much at all.National bank is falling all times,KenyaRe is constant.. Centum is struggling to come up .Finally do you guys think KPLC shares will be much diluted after split?????
Sober
#2 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 1:43:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
ha ha ha. KPLC is also a government entity stock. how much are you talking about?
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
youcan'tstopusnow
#3 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 5:16:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Kwanza KPLC is going to be 50 percent owned by govt. NBK is going to be privatised. And what do you mean Centum is struggling to move? The counter has rallied this year.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
PKoli
#4 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 7:10:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Kwanza KPLC is going to be 50 percent owned by govt. NBK is going to be privatised. And what do you mean Centum is struggling to move? The counter has rallied this year.


I am sure going forward, government ownership in companies will not be associated with poor performance as it happened before. So look for a company with good funtamentals and future growth prospects. KPLC has the potential
Wa_ithaka
#5 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 7:37:03 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Pkoli-how do you know so much about what will happen in future? All we need is another crony-based president and the Gichuru's will make a comeback.
Wanyina, I think if you are looking to compensate your losses in KenRe, you many need to think a little bit out fo the box.
I think the NSE is almost fully-valued and stock-picking is not the only the game in town
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
guru267
#6 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 9:00:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Selling kenya re to buy ANY stock on the NSE is a GREAT move.... Laughing out loudly
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
kyt
#7 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 10:35:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
guru267 wrote:
Selling kenya re to buy ANY stock on the NSE is a GREAT move.... Laughing out loudly

Applause Applause Applause
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
lovely2010
#8 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 11:43:44 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
Im leaving my kenya re for my great great grand children...but i havent thought of having babies yet! lol....
msimon
#9 Posted : Thursday, November 04, 2010 11:06:35 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
guru267 wrote:
Selling kenya re to buy ANY stock on the NSE is a GREAT move.... Laughing out loudly

Guru, can you justify why that would be a good move??? I have a feeling your basing ur reasoning on the stock not the company. Because as a company, they are well positioned and extremely undervalued. infact,in Africa, they are in the top 5 Reinsuarers after Continental Re of nigeria. They are selling below book and have had premium growth in of about 9% over the last 5 years. Investment income has grown by the same.What's more interesting is their underwriting margins have been positive 4 times in the last 8yrs(half of the time), when aggregated, it brings an average margin of 2% on net earned premiums in the last 5 yrs. This doesn't include the investment income. Hence, i think this is a stock with an upward potential of about 20-50% in it. Its extremely undervalued. I think its the most undervalued stock on the NSE selling at 30% discount based on book of half year. SO if we attach a p.e of 8 on anticipated 2010 results, thats an upside of 30% not counting the usual dividend that is about 4%. i.e EPS of 2.32 and P.E of 8.
E.P.S of 2.32 is extremely conservative(actual may be ard 2.5). This brings the upside to about 18/-. And that would still be at or below book then. So in other-words, the downside is virtually nil while the upside can take care of itself.
mwanahisa
#10 Posted : Thursday, November 04, 2010 11:25:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
msimon wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Selling kenya re to buy ANY stock on the NSE is a GREAT move.... Laughing out loudly

Guru, can you justify why that would be a good move??? I have a feeling your basing ur reasoning on the stock not the company. Because as a company, they are well positioned and extremely undervalued. infact,in Africa, they are in the top 5 Reinsuarers after Continental Re of nigeria. They are selling below book and have had premium growth in of about 9% over the last 5 years. Investment income has grown by the same.What's more interesting is their underwriting margins have been positive 4 times in the last 8yrs(half of the time), when aggregated, it brings an average margin of 2% on net earned premiums in the last 5 yrs. This doesn't include the investment income. Hence, i think this is a stock with an upward potential of about 20-50% in it. Its extremely undervalued. I think its the most undervalued stock on the NSE selling at 30% discount based on book of half year. SO if we attach a p.e of 8 on anticipated 2010 results, thats an upside of 30% not counting the usual dividend that is about 4%. i.e EPS of 2.32 and P.E of 8.
E.P.S of 2.32 is extremely conservative(actual may be ard 2.5). This brings the upside to about 18/-. And that would still be at or below book then. So in other-words, the downside is virtually nil while the upside can take care of itself.


msimon. Good analysis! I am with you on this one and totally disagree with g267.

Such blanket statements are the bane of this market.

There are about 50 stocks listed on the NSE some of which never trade while others are perenial loss makers, and yet g267 goes ahead and declares that any of them is a better buy than KNRE. Utter nonsense!

KNRE has its problems but they can be resolved. In my view at its current price it is not too much of a risk while I agree it is unlikely to shoot any lights out.
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