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KQ in 2010-11 (Boom, Bust or Blah)
VituVingiSana
#431 Posted : Sunday, October 31, 2010 8:05:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa - If the profits 10x last year... I will be very, very happy!

Yes, low PLFs are not a good thing but KQ increased capacity 12% into Africa thus the PLFs remained the same even with increased passengers. Flying to Africa is already expensive. I can fly NBO-LHR cheaper than NBO-Lusaka or Accra!

The taxes are crazy. Accra has $80 passenger tax. Flying NBO-DSM is the same! The taxes are higher than the fare!

As Africa gets out of the 'crisis' caused by the Global meltdown in 2009, I expect the PLFs to improve in Africa. Add KQ's new flights to Middle East & Europe which make NBO a desirable hub coz of KQ.

Bottomline: KQ should expect better passenger numbers as long as it expands its destinations + alliances (codeshares). It is a pity KQ does not service the USA market coz #3 source of tourists to Kenya
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#432 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 11:12:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Sky roof investor expectations from this stock makes me think on 5 Nov KQ will sink below 40 bob if the results dissapoint...
VituVingiSana
#433 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 11:17:59 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones)--Emirates AirlineEmirates AirlineLoading..., the Middle East's largest carrier, Monday reported a more than four-fold increase in first-half net profit as it invested in new aircraft and carried more cargo and passengers.

Profit for the period rose to 3.4 billion U.A.E. dirhams ($926 million), from AED752 million in the year earlier period, the airline said in an emailed statement. Revenue for same period swelled to AED26.4 billion, from AED19.5 billion a year ago.

"We continue to invest our profits in growing the business and our healthy financial position enables us to successfully meet all of our financial commitments and raise financing for future aircraft deliveries," said Emirates AirlineEmirates AirlineLoading... Chairman Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum.

The surge in Emirates' earnings shows that carriers in the Middle East have been able to weather one of the worst year's for the global aviation industry.

Airlines in the region saw the highest growth rate of 11.2% in air passenger traffic for 2009. Industry body International Air Transport Association expects global airlines will show a combined profit of $8.9 billion this year, a small recoup of the early $50 billion [airlines] lost over the previous decade.
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The Middle East is energizing the global aviation industry, read how here:

Emirates said Monday it carried 15.5 million passengers in the first six months of the year, a 17% jump compared with the year ago period.

The airline's passenger seat factor came in at 81.2%, the highest ever for a first six month reporting period.

"Premium class seat factors have also risen by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting an encouraging change in the global economic outlook," the company said.

Emirates said revenue from its SkyCargo division surged 48% to AED4.4 billion in the first half, while cargo tonnage rose 24% to 897,000 tons, compared with 725,000 tons a year ago.

According to its website, Emirates currently operates a fleet of 149 aircraft--a mix of 142 Airbus and Boeing passenger aircraft and seven freighters. It's total order book stands at 204 aircraft, all wide body, and worth over $68 billion.

http://www.zawya.com/Sto...cfm/sidZW20101101000063

This is a phenomenal airline! Compared to KQ, these guys are like a rocket to our snail
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#434 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 12:05:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@VVS agreed Emirates is phenomenon...i had a closer look at KQ's 2009/10 1H...Ksh33B of revenue came from passengers with a jump of around 9% in Pax for 1H 2010/11 that translates to an additional KSh2-3 B in revenue...maybe mwanahisa KSh 1B operating profit is achievable..just my wishful thinking...LOL..
mwanahisa
#435 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 1:05:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
the deal wrote:
Sky roof investor expectations from this stock makes me think on 5 Nov KQ will sink below 40 bob if the results dissapoint...


This is always the rub. In many cases companies deliver good results, but investors do not think they are good enough and dump the share. Conversely, when poor results are expected and are duly achieved, the share price does not fall as expected. This has recently happened in the case of EAPC, EA Cables and KenGen.

In KQ's case, I think expectations are not too high.

If you look at the share price, it has traded in a range from 42.50 to 48 over the last couple of months and is currently trading at the midpoint of that range, with fairly muted demand. I do not think this is indicative of high expectations.
mwanahisa
#436 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 1:19:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
mwanahisa wrote:
ProverB wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:

I trust that this is a hypothetical situation. I am fairly certain that KQ cannot achieve this feat in this Half, unless of course you are referring to the Operating Profits which were a miserly 160 million. I expect this to go up by a factor of more than 10!!!



how do you propose the above to be achieved?.


Full Year 2009-10 Operating Profit stood at Kshs 1.839 B, while H1 2009-10 was Kshs 160 M. Ergo, H2 Operating Profit must have been Kshs 1.679 B. Replicate that in 2010-11 and you have your factor of 10x. Given the better operating environment in H1 2010-11, we would expect better.

See quote from Q1 2010-11 KQ's operating performance:

Uptake of total production at 1,892m revenue passenger kilometres represents a 9% growth compared to last year while the total passenger tally, which closed on 666,658 increased by 4%. The growth underpins increased long haul customer travel made possible by better economic environment. The resulting average cabin factor improved from last year’s level of 61.6% to 67.2%.

Now, send out your BUY order!!! Buy me a beer someday if you make good on this.....hahaha.. I can buy you one if the bet turns otherwise.


@the deal. This is how I came up with the operating profit projection. Not very scientific, but we have to go with the information available.

I actually like your logic better as indicated in the post above, with regard to increase of revenues from the additional RPKs. If costs have been contained, then we should be well on our way to the anticipated H1 Operating Profit level.
VituVingiSana
#437 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 1:47:16 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
1Q 2010-11 was tough for KQ... Will it have made enough in 2Q to cover the poor 1Q?

The Global Economy was still weak in 1Q though it had started picking up...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#438 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 3:02:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
During the all conquering 2H of 2009/2010 KQ carried 1468789 passengers while during the 1H of 2010/11 KQ carried 1516225 passengers thats 47435 more passengers...lunch time Statistics...LOL...figures from KQ press releases.
VituVingiSana
#439 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 3:46:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
During the all conquering 2H of 2009/2010 KQ carried 1468789 passengers while during the 1H of 2010/11 KQ carried 1516225 passengers thats 47435 more passengers...lunch time Statistics...LOL...figures from KQ press releases.

Since you are on a roll... Please give us 1Q 2008-9 through 2Q 2010-11 passenger stats!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#440 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 5:13:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
During the all conquering 2H of 2009/2010 KQ carried 1468789 passengers while during the 1H of 2010/11 KQ carried 1516225 passengers thats 47435 more passengers...lunch time Statistics...LOL...figures from KQ press releases.

Since you are on a roll... Please give us 1Q 2008-9 through 2Q 2010-11 passenger stats!

I can't go further than thatLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly but pumping your money into Unga instead of KQ was a mistake...but i think i have a feeling how the earnings will be "way better than last year"
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