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PLAYING THE MARKET-A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION
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PKoli
#341 Posted : Saturday, October 16, 2010 3:20:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
Gatheuzi wrote:
@ vvs,

You are very right about the high staff turnover in the new outfit. I interact with them both as a customer and through my employer. As far as Iam concerned at a personal level, I will keep them. However from my employer perspective, we have lost track of the different account relationship managers we keep being assigned to after the previous ones left.

And like you can guess the relationship is no longer as cusomized as it used to be with the good old CFC.


What really went wrong? Too much South African influence? How is the performance of Kitili after moving from Uganda?
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stocksmaster
#342 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 4:25:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
The entry into Diamond Trust Bank after exiting KCB seems to have been a timely move.Within one week of purchase, the share has appreciated close to 10%.

At market close, Diamond Trust Bank is trading at an average price of Ksh 132 with bids as high as Ksh 135 finding no takers. The demand is 35 times the supply with the supply quickly drying out.

The DTBK share still has alot of upside potential compared to other financial sector stocks. It is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 16. Assuming a conservative growth rate of 60% for the year, this translates to a PEG of 0.26.
Compare this with Co-op bank with a similar growth rate of about 60% and a trailing P/E of almost 24 at end of trading today.They both have a similar dividend yield of around 1%.

I believe DTBK should be trading at a similar P/E to Co-op bank of 24, thus a price of Ksh 184 becomes the target price (which should approach Ksh 200 if the Q3 results have an EPS growth of more than 70%).

The Q3 Results will thus be eagerly awaited to give direction as to how far North this share should move.


Happy hunting
x handle: @stocksmaster79
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VituVingiSana
#343 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 7:50:02 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
You know I can't sing enough praises about @stocksmaster [coz of the Real Portfolio]... @Gatheuzi has done very well in the Fantasey market too... Outpacing me by 100,000/-...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Gatheuzi
#344 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 8:35:26 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
@ vvs I own DTB in real life as well and so there is real money flowing somewhere too.Fantasey mrkt portlays a mirror of my real holdings.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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VituVingiSana
#345 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 8:40:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Gatheuzi wrote:
@ vvs I own DTB in real life as well and so there is real money flowing somewhere too.Fantasey mrkt portlays a mirror of my real holdings.

Awesome... I have to say I have lagged [in the short-term Sad ] on the Real + Fantasey markets... but I stick with my choices coz I prefer the longer-term [3 years = 100%].

I remain confident that I will end up with 100% on KK & Unga lakini on KQ I wanna see 1H 2010-11 Results...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sparkly
#346 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 9:04:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
@ vvs I own DTB in real life as well and so there is real money flowing somewhere too.Fantasey mrkt portlays a mirror of my real holdings.

Awesome... I have to say I have lagged [in the short-term Sad ] on the Real + Fantasey markets... but I stick with my choices coz I prefer the longer-term [3 years = 100%].

I remain confident that I will end up with 100% on KK & Unga lakini on KQ I wanna see 1H 2010-11 Results...

I smell 600 on the fm. At the bottom of the pyramid people have been screwed by safcom and mumias, other chaps bought good stocks but their gains have been wiped out by commissions.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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stocksmaster
#347 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 8:22:43 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:


RATIONALE OF ACTIVITY 13:

My average buying price of KCB net of transaction cost was Ksh 19.44. At the Ksh 22.75 - 23.00 range, this represented a net gain of 15.5% within 17 Days of purchase.

Although my initial target was an exit price of Ksh 26 or March 2011 (6 months horizon), 50% of my target in KCB was achieved within half a month. That to me means a need to reevaluate wether going forward, another counter exists that can give me a superior return on investment.

KCB still remains an attractive investment even at current prices but as it approaches a P/E of 15, it begins to assume a fair price.A large number of those who purchased the share at Rights (Ksh 17) will have a strong urge to lock in some gains at current prices which will slow down the forward momentum.I expect some profit taking as early as tomorrow(Friday 08/10/2010.

I anticipate KCB will announce about 28-30% rise in Q3 2010 in Net profits which should support the share at current prices upto December 2010. The share should test the Ksh 26-27 range prior to End of year results in February 2011 and the Ksh 30 levels at around April 2010.

As the funds clear within the next four days, I intend to scan the NSE seeking for bargains.

As for the SCBK shares, the Q3 results are eagerly awaited before an investment decision is arrived at.

Happy hunting.


Seems my estimate of KCB Q3 Results of 28-30% was spot on. As highligted above, the results should support the current prices of KCB of Ksh 22.5 - 23.

For DTBK, I anticipate a Q3 rise of 105% which should support a trailing P/E of 24 (forward P/E of about 11.75) and hence a price target of Ksh 184.

Happy hunting
x handle: @stocksmaster79
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bartum
#348 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 8:40:26 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
@stocksmaster i think 105% is too high, the Q1 will drag it down to about 70%-80%. Just my thoughts, but its more juicy if it becomes 105%
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stocksmaster
#349 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 8:57:24 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE

@ Bartum: I had posted this at another thread
concerning the possible scenarios.

The case for DTB:

Scenario 1: For the period July to September 2010, DTB makes Ksh 0 net profit. The EPS thus remain same as Half year at Ksh 7.12. For 2009, Q3 was Ksh 4.96. Thus even without any profit growth DTB announces a Q3 rise in earning per share of 43.5%. With this scenario, the share should trade at about Ksh 140 after Q3 results (Trailing P/E 18).This must be the worst case scenario.

Scenario 2:DTB grows at the same rate as Q1 of 2010. This means that for the period July to September 2010, it makes Ksh 2 per share thus as at Q3 it will announce: Ksh 7.12+ Ksh 2= Ksh 9.12. Therefore for Q3, the EPS growth becomes 83.9%.With this scenario, the share should trade at about Ksh 160 after Q3 results (Trailing P/E 21)


Scenario 3: DTB grows at the same rate as Q2 of 2010. This means that for the period July to September 2010, it makes Ksh 5.12 per share thus as at Q3 it will announce: Ksh 7.12+ Ksh 5.12= Ksh 12.24. Therefore for Q3, the EPS growth becomes 146.8%.With this scenario, the share should trade at about Ksh 190-200 after Q3 results (Trailing P/E 25-26). This must be the best case scenario.

Happy hunting.


x handle: @stocksmaster79
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mlennyma
#350 Posted : Friday, October 22, 2010 9:05:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
New 2010 high?..4,678.10
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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